Algerian military buildup diverts eyes from economic frustrations
Algeria’s accelerated arms buildup underscores its regional ambitions while serving as a domestic political tool.
In a nutshell
- Military expansion bolsters Algeria’s influence despite economic hardship
- Strategic alliances with Russia and China fuel Algeria’s growing military
- Tensions with Morocco remain as both nations escalate arms acquisitions
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Algeria is significantly accelerating its arms procurement efforts, positioning itself as the fifth-largest arms importer globally and the leading importer in Africa. While at face value, this strategy may appear to be aimed at countering Morocco for regional dominance, it might be more aimed at reminding the dissatisfied local population that the central government is still in control.
Despite economic pressures like double-digit unemployment, the country has allocated a military budget of $25 billion for 2025. Its status among the top 40 global military spenders is seen domestically as a strategic achievement. This substantial commitment has been supported by changes in oil and gas prices following the war in Ukraine, which have boosted Algeria’s revenues and provided the financial resources needed to maintain elevated levels of military expenditure.
Simultaneously, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has made it a priority to close the gap in high-technology sectors, specifically focusing on satellite development. By the late 2030s, Algeria plans to enhance its satellite network for both civilian and military applications, reflecting a broader strategy to strengthen its technological independence and strategic capabilities.
An arms race with Morocco, which has intensified over the past two years, is openly embraced by the Algerian regime, which takes pride in positioning itself as a partner to the world’s major powers. It highlights a strengthening and developing relationship with Beijing, a key player seeking to extend its influence in the Maghreb region. While ties between the two countries appear strong, a closer examination reveals underlying complexities and fragility.
Algiers’ foreign policy choices
Chinese authorities had pledged to support Algeria in developing a domestic defense industry that can produce heavy weaponry. Although licenses for local production have been granted for low-tonnage naval vessels (corvettes) and machine guns, Beijing’s strategy remains focused on exporting its turnkey military equipment. A detailed review of Algeria’s procurement list reveals a strategic emphasis on preparing for large-scale conflicts. This is underscored by the acquisition of the YLC-2v radar, a Chinese system capable of detecting aerial targets up to 500 kilometers away. Such technology is particularly well-suited for monitoring the vast expanses of the Sahara in southern Algeria and for securing its borders, especially with Morocco.
Russia nevertheless remains Algeria’s main partner and arms supplier, with Moscow benefiting significantly from its position in the North African market. Since the Soviet era, Moscow has maintained strong ties with Algiers, which uses each new acquisition – such as the recent Iskander-M missiles – to showcase its role as a key regional power. This dynamic highlights a consistent pattern: The more advanced the weaponry, the stronger the bilateral trust, reinforcing Algeria’s sense of security against perceived regional threats.
A notable example of what is possible is Algeria’s potential acquisition of fifth-generation Su-57 fighter jets from Russia. While the deal has not yet been finalized, the mere prospect supports Algeria’s narrative of aerial superiority. If the acquisition goes through, these stealth-capable and technologically advanced aircraft would alter the regional balance of power, giving Algeria a decisive edge over Morocco in air operations if left unaddressed. This potential procurement highlights the growing arms race between the two neighbors, driven by strategic and geopolitical rivalries.
In response, Morocco, a North African country with especially good ties to United States President Donald Trump, is reportedly negotiating the purchase of 32 F-35 Lightning II fighter jets at an estimated cost of $17 billion over 45 years. This would gradually replace Morocco’s fleet of F-16 fighter jets. Rabat has cooperated closely with Washington since the first Trump administration, when the U.S. recognized Morocco’s claims to Western Sahara and in return Rabat normalized relations with Israel. In light of Algiers and Moscow further aligning, the Moroccan-U.S. relationship is also expected to maintain course.
Strategy to project and maintain power
Algeria’s ongoing arms buildup, however, seems disproportionate to its regional risk environment. To understand the regime’s motivations, it is crucial to consider both domestic factors and the legacy of the 2019-2020 Hirak protests. During this time, tens of thousands of peaceful Algerians took to the streets, directly challenging the government’s authority. The regime has not forgotten that these protests questioned its centrality, casting doubt on the military’s foundational role in the country. For the Algerian leadership, maintaining a modern and heavily armed military is not just a defense strategy, it is a means of political survival at home. The National People’s Army (ANP) presents itself as the cornerstone of national stability and sovereignty. Its message to the public is clear: “Without us, there is chaos.”
For the Algerian leadership, maintaining a modern and heavily armed military is not just a defense strategy, it is a means of political survival at home.
This projection of power is also aimed at the remnants of Islamist insurgents that challenged the military-backed regime, now significantly weakened but never fully eradicated by Algiers. Authorities regularly apprehend terrorist suspects and uncover weapons caches. Algerians have witnessed the military’s prolonged struggle to neutralize insurgent strongholds. During the country’s civil war, it took nearly a decade (1992-2002, referred to as the “Black Decade”) to bring the rebellion under control. Since that unenviable experience, the military has remained determined to project an image of strength to its population, emphasizing its preparedness and capability to address any operational challenges it may face.
Algiers competing with Rabat
One primary motivation behind Algeria’s current arms buildup is the need for the government to sustain a narrative of strategic rivalry with Morocco. Despite the low likelihood of a direct military confrontation – largely because neither side stands to gain from such an outcome – the Algerian regime derives internal legitimacy by positioning itself as the sole actor capable of counterbalancing Moroccan influence.
The Algerian-Moroccan dynamic is shaped by a series of interconnected disputes which, while individually limited in scope, collectively foster an environment of latent instability. This volatility, in turn, provides Algeria with a justification for its sustained military modernization.
The three most prominent points of contention include:
• The Abraham Accords: Rabat’s decision to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords has been met with vehement opposition in Algiers. Algerian officials frequently reiterate their refusal to accept “direct borders with Israel,” a phrase that has become emblematic of Algeria’s broader geopolitical concerns. This rhetoric underscores fears in Algiers of perceived Israeli influence over Morocco’s strategic and economic policies, further intensifying the rivalry.
• The Western Sahara dispute: As one of Africa’s longest-running territorial conflicts, the issue of Western Sahara remains disputed. While the risk of a full-scale escalation between Rabat and Algiers is currently minimal, sporadic clashes in the southern provinces persist, particularly between Moroccan forces and Polisario fighters. Although these skirmishes do not independently justify Algeria’s arms race, they reinforce its narrative of needing to maintain readiness. Similarly, Morocco views its own rearmament as a necessary counterbalance to Algerian ambitions.
• Support for the Kabylia autonomy movement: Algeria accuses Morocco of providing covert support to the Movement for the Autonomy of Kabylia (MAK), a separatist group seeking independence for the coastal Kabylia region in northern Algeria that is part of the Tell Atlas mountain range. This accusation led Algeria to sever diplomatic ties with Morocco on August 24, 2021. For the Algerian military, the MAK issue is not merely a domestic concern but a potential casus belli, with serious implications for regional stability.
Algiers utilizes the historical concept of a Greater Morocco, introduced by Morocco’s King Mohammed V in the 1950s, as a pretext to depict its neighbor as an imperialist power, naturally supported by other actors Algiers views as imperialists, such as the U.S. and France. This narrative is deeply ingrained in the regime’s identity.
Purporting to remain faithful to the ideals of the Non-Aligned Movement, Algiers is still shaped by the pan-Arab struggle of the decolonization era. The regime positions itself as the defender of oppressed peoples, with the Palestinian cause occupying a central place in its rhetoric. The sacrosanct nature of this cause, coupled with the current imbalance of power that overwhelmingly disadvantages the populations of the West Bank and Gaza, situates the Algerian military within the framework of a long-term existential struggle. This framing goes some way to legitimizing its ongoing efforts to modernize its armed forces, aligning them with a soft power strategy designed to engage in a calculated balance of power with both the United States and Israel.
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This strategy, while consistent with the regime’s political essence, becomes risky when tested against the realities of power dynamics. Despite the Algerian Air Force being considered among the most capable in Africa, with its fleet of 70 Su-30MKA heavy fighters, a conventional confrontation with NATO-associated forces would be decidedly unfavorable for Algeria. The same contradiction is evident when Algiers loosens the reins on its media to issue threats against France, with statements such as: “Everything is ready, gentlemen fascist-Zionist-terrorists, for a second Algerian war.” Let us not forget that the Algerian tragedy was a fratricidal conflict from which no one emerged strengthened.
Algeria currently maintains a stance of rhetorical confrontation with its neighbor, underpinned by substantial investments in military capabilities, while deliberately steering clear of red lines that could provoke open conflict. Despite the assertive positioning, the country’s leadership appears more preoccupied with consolidating its legacy than preparing for active military engagement.
General Chengriha, chief of staff of the National People’s Army, is 79 years old, just like the president, whose fragile health continues to be a concern. There is little evidence suggesting that either leader has genuine aspirations for direct conflict with Morocco, nor does it seem that the Algerian public would support a war – especially in a scenario where the military outcome is highly unpredictable.
Scenarios
Most likely: Domestic dissatisfaction to remain Algiers’ real enemy
The Algerian regime will most likely persist in its strategy of acquiring modern weaponry, regularly showcasing its military capabilities. A prime example was the November 2024 70th anniversary of the Algerian Revolution, during which it unveiled the Russian-made Repellent 1 anti-drone system. However, this buildup is more performative than substantive, as Algeria’s aging leadership struggles to maintain relevance. Its diplomacy remains notably inconsistent, torn between a pro-Moscow stance and tentative overtures to the West – best exemplified by the signing of a military cooperation memorandum with the U.S., a move that even its architects seemed to approach without conviction.
Month after month, it becomes increasingly clear that Algeria’s primary challenge lies within. The true threat is not an external adversary, as its military rhetoric suggests, but rather its own population. Algerians are less concerned with geopolitical posturing than with accessing jobs, clean water and reliable electricity. The arms race pursued by the regime does little to address these pressing domestic needs, further deepening the disconnect between the government and its people.
Possible: Over-arming creates risk of inadvertent conflict with Morocco
By excessively arming its forces and adopting a confrontational stance toward its neighbors, Algiers inadvertently creates the conditions for a spark that could ignite conflict. A theoretical military incident with Morocco revives the specter of open warfare. Major powers, both Russian and Western, would need to intervene to restore calm and prevent escalation, highlighting the fragility of regional stability.
Following such a misstep, Algiers would seek greater political legitimacy and intensify its rapprochement with Tunisia and Libya, aspiring to assume leadership within a potential trilateral North African alliance against Morocco.
This ambition becomes its own alternative objective – a bid to position Algiers at the helm of a coherent regional economic and military bloc. Framed as a strategic counterbalance, this vision substitutes for the long-defunct Arab Maghreb Union, now relegated to the pages of history. It also underlines Algiers’ aspiration to project influence across North Africa.
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