Assad’s fall and Tehran on the edge
The Iranian regime’s masterplan to sabotage Israeli-Arab relations and fuel antisemitism in the West backfired.
In a matter of days, a rebel alliance in Syria led by the Islamist militia group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) brought vast swathes of the country under its control. Starting with Aleppo, followed by Hama and Homs, they entered Damascus over the weekend. President Bashar al-Assad himself has fled to Moscow. Syria is at a turning point.
Although HTS is considered a terrorist group and previously established an intolerant regime in the Idlib province in northern Syria, their leader, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, is now conveying quite moderate messages. It appears that HTS had Ankara’s blessing after President Assad refused Turkish proposals for the future of Syria and the return of Syrian refugees from Turkey. But it is doubtful whether a change of regime will bring improvement to the people and peace to the region.
War in Syria started in 2011 with the Arab Spring. The Assad regime crushed demonstrations brutally, triggering resistance from multiple groups and allowed varying foreign interests to intervene, including ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria). The Assad regime, although sanctioned by the West, prevailed thanks to support from Tehran, Hezbollah and Moscow. Syria became an important element of the hegemonic aspirations of the mullah regime in Iran.
Tehran creating chaos
The regime in Tehran is − with its subversive claims of supremacy − the mastermind behind most Middle Eastern troubles. It intends to annihilate Israel, aggressively extend its range of interests in the Arab world, further civil wars in Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq, and to effect regime change in Saudi Arabia. It actively fights the United States and the values of free societies, and to this end it has become the biggest state sponsor of terrorism. Its main proxies are Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen.
The regime in Tehran is − with its subversive claims of supremacy − the mastermind behind most Middle Eastern troubles.
The Abraham Accords of 2020, a rapprochement between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, along with the Israel-Morocco normalization agreement of the same year, were a blow to Tehran’s ambitions, especially as Riyadh was interested in eventually joining.
From Tehran’s position, something had to be done; a war between Israel and the Palestinian territories had to be organized. Heavy provocations and threats to Israel had to be put in place to force Israel to retaliate and ensure a maximum number of Palestinians were killed. The ideal location was Gaza. Pictures of dead Palestinians would make Riyadh reluctant to enter the Abraham Accords. It would also have the side effect of enhancing antisemitism in the media-saturated feel-good societies of Europe and the U.S.
This machination was the cause of the inhumane Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. More than 2,000 innocent civilians, including babies, were murdered, injured or taken as hostages. Israel had to do something in self-defense to stop such murderous assaults. A problem for Israel, however, was that Hamas leaders and fighters hid like cowards below hospitals and schools and used human shields to protect themselves. A warlike conflict in Gaza erupted.
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The Israeli Defense Forces tried to minimize civilian casualties, but war is terrible. Pictures and statistics provided by the Gazan authorities − close to Hamas − made horrible impressions. It appeared that Tehran’s plan was working, based on the reactions in the Western world. Universities, politicians, activists and NGOs such as Amnesty International fell into the antisemitic trap. Even international courts have made fools of themselves; the International Criminal Court even issued an arrest warrant for the Israeli Prime Minister. Neither the courts nor Amnesty International have proven capable of distinguishing self-defense from genocide. It probably resulted from a combination of primitive ideology and widespread incompetence.
Next moves in the Middle East
Again, war is terrible. However, Israel has managed to widely reduce both terrorist organizations Hamas and Hezbollah and eliminate their leadership. This is a significant blow and enormous loss of face for the mullahs in Tehran. And now with the fall of Assad, they are losing their crucial playground in Syria, a place indispensable for the support of Hezbollah, the mightiest terror organization. On its chessboard of proxy battlefields, Tehran is in major trouble.
But the regime is also under pressure at home in Iran, which is leading the authorities to be still more oppressive. They have again cracked down on the dress code for women and begun arresting the opposition, both steps that run counter to the promises given by the current president, Masoud Pezeshkian. For a regime that has already had to tighten the screws because of increasing pressure at home, the loss of face in foreign activities exacerbates their problems.
The masterplan to destroy Israel may backfire on the regime in Tehran. Israel has managed to follow through in the fight against terrorism, against all odds. This might be an important nail in the coffin of a brutal regime which has held the Iranian population − and the entire Middle East − hostage since 1979.
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