President Paz emerges stronger from Bolivia’s blockade crisis
After 50 days of protests and roadblocks, Bolivia’s new president has divided the opposition and restored traffic.
In a nutshell
- Morales-backed roadblocks sought to force President Paz from office
- The new leader split the protest coalition by striking a deal with workers
- The failed campaign politically weakened former President Morales
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Since President Rodrigo Paz Pereira took office in Bolivia on November 8, 2025, his government has come under attack by forces allied with former President Evo Morales. A leftist associated with the Sao Paulo Forum, Mr. Morales sought to blame President Paz for the economic crisis caused by two decades of socialist governments, calling for protests and roadblocks aimed at destabilizing him and demanding his resignation.
However, President Paz was able to overcome these difficulties and is preparing to consolidate his government, while Mr. Morales has lost momentum and will have to face charges brought by the Bolivian justice system.
Who is Evo Morales?
Evo Morales, former leader of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS), was Bolivia’s first Indigenous president and served for 14 years, from January 2006 to November 2019. He was born in the department of Oruro, but in the 1980s he moved to Cochabamba, where he became the general secretary of a union of coca leaf growers. He led protests against the coca eradication policies promoted by the United States.
Mr. Morales became one of the region’s most prominent allies of Cuba’s communist government and Venezuela’s Bolivarian movement. He also championed the creation of Bolivia’s “plurinational state,” which promised greater political recognition and autonomy for the country’s 36 Indigenous peoples. In practice, however, the new system ended up being a mechanism to perpetuate his hold on power, weakening the state and national institutions.
In 2019, he was accused of committing election fraud, which forced him to flee the country – first to Mexico and then to Argentina. Furthermore, the Bolivian Attorney General’s Office accused him of having had a relationship with a 15-year-old girl during his presidency and of having had a child with her, which constitutes statutory rape under Bolivian law.
The internal struggle within MAS
The electoral victory of President Rodrigo Paz was made possible, in part, by the fierce infighting within MAS. The divisions began following the 2019 election fraud accusations. Immediately afterward, Jeanine Anez assumed the interim presidency, after which new elections were called in 2020.
From exile, Mr. Morales selected his former minister of economy, Luis Arce, as his presidential candidate, hoping to return to the country and regain power. However, Mr. Arce, although he shared the same political vision, had a more moderate profile. Consequently, when he won the election, he turned his back on Mr. Morales and led his own faction within MAS.
For the first time since its founding, MAS ceased to act as a unified bloc and split into two factions with different strategies. In numerous cases, MAS lawmakers voted along divided lines, hindering the passage of legislation and international loans.
MAS entered the 2025 elections deeply divided, paving the way for a decisive right-wing victory. The presidential runoff pitted center-right candidate Rodrigo Paz against the more conservative former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga. Right-leaning parties also dominated the legislative elections, while MAS suffered a historic collapse, securing only two seats in the lower house.
Rodrigo Paz faces the economic crisis
After almost two decades of MAS rule, Bolivia entered its worst economic crisis since the 1980s. Inflation, which in 2023 was among the lowest in South America at around 2 percent, rose to 20 percent in 2025. Once a major exporter of natural gas to Argentina and Brazil, the country began to face difficulties in supplying its own market. The decline in gas production and exports reduced tax revenues, international reserves and the availability of U.S. dollars.
Although Bolivia has one of the lowest unemployment rates in Latin America – 2.7 percent – 80 percent of its jobs are in the informal sector. The crisis has eroded the purchasing power of wages, pushing many of these informal workers into poverty. In addition, the shortage of dollars has affected small businesses’ ability to purchase imported supplies.
The crisis resulted from at least four factors: public spending that exceeded revenue; increasingly unsustainable subsidies; insufficient investment in hydrocarbon exploration, which reduced gas production; and dependence on gas exports to generate foreign currency.
Once in power, President Paz’s government implemented a plan to restore economic stability, promote a model more open to private investment, strengthen institutions and reintegrate Bolivia into the international community. Mr. Paz reestablished close relations with the U.S., joined the Shield of the Americas and reaffirmed the country’s commitment to fighting drug trafficking.
The economic adjustments included eliminating fuel subsidies, reducing government spending, and securing international financing as part of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). One of the most significant changes occurred in July 2026, when the government authorized private importation of fuel, partially breaking the state monopoly to alleviate gasoline and diesel shortages.
Blockades as a mechanism of destabilization
In recent years, the Latin American left has tended to reject election results when they are not favorable. In Peru, leftist candidate Roberto Sanchez refused to acknowledge Keiko Fujimori’s victory for weeks; and in Colombia, President Gustavo Petro has refussed to accept Abelardo de la Espriella’s victory.
In Bolivia, the scale of MAS’s defeat left little basis for challenging the election result. Mr. Morales nevertheless rejected Mr. Paz’s victory and called for protests and roadblocks against the new government.
In early May 2026, groups aligned with Mr. Morales set up roadblocks, with the participation of the Bolivian Workers’ Center (COB), the Aymara organization Ponchos Rojos, as well as coca growers and cooperative miners. Some miners used dynamite during demonstrations and clashes with the authorities.
The use of roadblocks is a recurring tactic aimed at destabilizing the state. Between 2000 and 2005, when Mr. Morales was a representative of coca farmers and an opposition leader, he participated in or organized numerous roadblocks against the governments of Hugo Banzer Suarez, Jorge Quiroga and Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada. After he left office, groups aligned with him organized at least five nationwide blockades that had a major impact.
The roadblocks of 2026 exacerbated an already difficult economic situation. Estimates reported by various international media outlets put the cumulative losses at around $2.3 billion, in addition to severely disrupting the transport of food, medicine and fuel, leading to shortages in several regions.
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President Paz overcame the crisis through various means, including support from Washington. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on his X account, “Let there be no mistake: the United States stands squarely in support of Bolivia’s legitimate constitutional government. We will not allow criminals and drug traffickers to overthrow democratically elected leaders in our hemisphere.”
By “criminals and drug traffickers,” Secretary Rubio was likely referring to Mr. Morales and his allies. During the MAS administrations, the area under coca cultivation in Bolivia reached 34,000 hectares in 2024, a 10 percent increase from 2023, according to United Nations estimates. Bolivia is the world’s third-largest producer of cocaine – which is manufactured from the coca leaf – behind Colombia and Peru.
The Bolivian government also received support from numerous Latin American governments that are members of the Shield of the Americas. The official statement read: “The member countries of the Shield of the Americas express our deep concern with the protests and road blockades aimed at subverting the constitutional order and destabilizing the democratically elected government of Bolivia.” In addition, some of these countries sent humanitarian aid to alleviate shortages caused by the blockades.
If this crisis had unfolded a few years ago, when various Latin American presidents affiliated with the Sao Paulo Forum were in power, President Paz might have been overthrown, as happened to his predecessors Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada and Carlos Mesa. But the U.S.’s new national security strategy facilitates the exposure of political structures that operate in the service of drug trafficking and prevents them from destabilizing democracies.
The Paz government implemented a strategy of attrition: letting the protests die down due to a lack of popular support and the widespread rejection that Mr. Morales currently faces. Furthermore, President Paz divided the Morales-aligned coalition by offering the COB an agreement to “pacify” the country, signed on June 19. Following this, Morales supporters accused the COB of “treason” for having “sold out” to the government.
Now that the crisis has been overcome, President Paz has emerged stronger, while Mr. Morales and his allies have been weakened, allowing the government to move forward with economic and social reforms.
Scenarios
Most likely: President Paz consolidates his position; Evo Morales stands trial
Following the failed attempt at destabilization, confidence in President Paz’s government is consolidated, leading to an increase in foreign investment in hydrocarbons, mining (including lithium), infrastructure and telecommunications. The Bolivian government succeeds in signing agreements with the IMF and the World Bank to secure financing, with the aim of reviving the economy and overcoming the crisis.
The Attorney General’s Office, with the government’s support, issued a capture order against Mr. Morales on July 29, for the various crimes attributed to him. He must now decide to either flee the country, as in 2019, or face justice.
Less likely: Morales continues to destabilize the country
To avoid a violent backlash from his supporters, the government decides to halt Evo Morales’s prosecution. The former leader launches a new wave of roadblocks – but this time without the support of the COB and the unions, which have already reached an agreement with the government.
The maneuver fails again because the geopolitical circumstances have not changed. As a result, the country’s economic recovery is delayed due to the losses caused by the new blockades, but it does not come to a halt.
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