Trade helps China tighten grip on Africa
African nations look to China for stability after U.S. trade disruptions complicate partnerships and economic strategies.
In a nutshell
- U.S. tariffs and uncertainty drive African economies to Chinese partnerships
- Beijing offers Africa zero tariffs on imports, investment and infrastructure
- Unequal trade risks persist, threatening industries despite stability
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If the African economy was up for grabs in recent years, that is no longer the case. After the United States levied tariffs on countries worldwide, deprioritized relations with several African countries and upended the global trade order, China has moved quickly to seize the opportunity. Beijing is locking in supplies of the continent’s raw materials and positioning itself as a more reliable partner. In early 2026, South Africa signed a framework trade agreement with China, gaining wider access to the Chinese market. Then, at the start of May, China launched a zero-tariff regime for nearly all African countries.
South Africa lost access to the U.S. market following Washington’s imposition of punitive trade tariffs across the global market in 2025. Even after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in February 2026 that President Donald Trump’s tariffs were unconstitutional, the uncertainty created by the trade barriers played a major role in pushing African countries toward China.
Scrambling to offset the loss of access to the American market, Pretoria views closer cooperation with Beijing as both a pragmatic and strategic breakthrough. Dubbed the Framework Agreement on Economic Partnership for Shared Prosperity, South Africa’s trade minister, Parks Tau, and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Wentao, signed the agreement in February 2026 as the two countries made an aggressive push to build mutual trade and investment. The framework strengthens cooperation across mining, agriculture, renewable energy and technology.
Emerging economies, particularly Africa’s leading industrial nations like South Africa, have grown increasingly desperate for new trade partnerships both as a short-term measure to address the immediate crisis and as a long-term recalibration of their trade policies to ensure the much-needed stability for their fragile economies.
The Trump administration’s global trade shakedown provided an opportunity for Chinese President Xi Jinping to renew his country’s focus on Africa, a priority that was already shaping Beijing’s engagements as it seeks to expand its global influence. The U.S. abdication as an international trade player also created a rare opportunity for China, which has a relatively weak economy and needs export markets to prevent domestic stagnation, unemployment and political risk.
What is in it for Africa?
China’s trade concessions to Africa build on Beijing’s sustained infrastructure investments across the continent and elsewhere in emerging markets. This is something that was already worrying Western economic powers whose economies are facing mounting debt, low growth and internal political fractures.
As China’s reach in Africa grows through investment partnerships and lending via the Belt and Road Initiative to build ports, infrastructure and other logistical platforms, Beijing is upending Western influence in Africa. China’s current willingness to provide African economies with duty-free access to its market is a milestone with deeper geopolitical and security implications.
Given the unequal standing between China and African states, with Beijing having become a global manufacturing and technology giant, the question is whether economically and politically vulnerable African economies will gain from the new policy. China and Africa have huge trade imbalances; the continent exports raw materials and imports finished products. The new zero-tariff policy on products moving from Africa to China may exacerbate this disparity.
Yet significant cuts to global aid and the current American approach to global trade − a concern for African countries and other Western powers alike − pose a risk to Africa’s development.
For Pretoria, a long-term recalibration of its trade policies and partnerships has become a priority. As China flexes its economic muscle, it is necessary to consider the terms on which African economies are repositioned in the global order.
Unequal, yet workable and stable economic partnerships
The newly established economic partnership between Beijing and Pretoria, along with China’s scrapping of duties on imports from Africa, signals a growing pragmatism among African policymakers in recent years. For industrialized countries such as South Africa, an unequal yet workable trade agreement with China is preferable to waiting in vain for progress with the U.S. and Europe.
African states can plan for at least a few years of stable trade with China, in contrast to the chaotic and unpredictable nature of President Trump’s policies. Even if the Supreme Court’s decision is seen as a welcome correction of the administration’s disruption of the global trade order, it paints a picture of uncertainty for those observing from afar.
For industrialized countries such as South Africa, an unequal yet workable trade agreement with China is preferable to waiting in vain for progress with the U.S. and Europe.
In dealings with China, African governments know that decisions by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are implemented without any opportunity for disruption or correction from internal political maneuvering or differences. Compared to volatile democracies such as the U.S. under the Trump administration, a stable dictatorship ironically creates a predictable policy environment, making it a preferred partner.
China is capitalizing on the instability currently plaguing Western democracies. By extending an invitation to African nations to take advantage of a duty-free trade partnership, China’s calculation rests on the premise that Africa has no other options but to join this trade framework.
Furthermore, the net returns of such economic partnerships favor Beijing as African economies do not pose a challenge to China’s manufacturing and production capacity. Beijing has leverage over emerging economies, including in shaping trade negotiations and economic partnerships. The case of South Africa shows the dilemma faced by Global Majority states in dealing with China’s expansion strategy to offset global economic and trade uncertainties.
The costs of Chinese imports
Currently, South Africa is gauging the impact of Chinese imports on its economy, particularly in manufacturing sectors such as the automotive industry. As is the case with Western economies, South Africa finds itself in a tough spot: Should it allow more imported vehicles from China or take steps needed for the survival of local industry?
Since Chinese cars began flooding the South African market in recent years, anxiety has grown about the survival of the local automotive sector, which is struggling under the influx of imported Chinese vehicles. This is a crisis that no one denies in South Africa, or elsewhere across the continent. Established players in the sector – including global giants such as Volkswagen, BMW, Nissan and others – have been holding back on investments in South Africa as their sales have come under pressure from Chinese competitors.
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For example, after 60 years of local manufacturing in South Africa, Nissan has decided to close its plant in Pretoria. Interestingly, the Japanese company sold the facility to the Chinese automaker Chery. While this represents a new investment by a Chinese company in South Africa’s automotive sector, it is displacing a long-established player and the change of ownership reveals the vulnerability of traditional manufacturers in the domestic market.
Automotive industry stakeholders in South Africa have lobbied the government to impose heavy tariffs on Chinese cars, with South Africa’s International Trade Commission proposing a levy of up to 50 percent. It is not clear how this will shape up against the backdrop of China’s overtures to open its market to South Africa on a zero-tariff basis. The country’s leaders will have to decide whether to raise tariffs on Chinese vehicles to protect the local industry, even as they seek duty-free access to the Chinese market. By offering a zero-tariff rate on selected goods, Beijing might be expecting some form of reciprocity in the form of trade concessions.
A mind-boggling question is whether Chinese investment in South Africa’s automotive sector will offset the losses resulting from the withdrawal or scaling back of existing legacy brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Ford. These companies have shaped the automotive sector in South Africa with investments spanning decades. Pretoria will have to balance the risk of the unknown regarding China’s expansion into the local automotive sector on one hand, and the survival of domestic manufacturing on the other.
Scenarios
More likely: China to leverage trade with Africa into other forms of cooperation
China’s rapid global expansion in manufacturing is a force to be reckoned with and protectionism will not put an end to this phenomenon. As Beijing seeks to deepen its trade with emerging markets, China will attempt to level the playing field through overtures such as granting duty-free access to its markets for these countries, including key regional players such as South Africa. China can play this card without losing much of its local manufacturing capacity, as it is emerging as an unmatched global manufacturing leader. As a result, China will gain further global influence in manufacturing while also extending its reach beyond trade and economic partnerships, perhaps into security cooperation.
By investing in infrastructure, energy and technology in Africa and other emerging markets, China is laying the foundations for investments in manufacturing in those regions. One challenge that dissuades Western investment in Africa is poor infrastructure, which increases the total cost of production. If China can resolve this, the country will freely ride into African markets, paying only a small price of offering duty-free access to Chinese markets for Africa’s farmers, miners and struggling manufacturing sector.
Unlikely: South Africa pushes back against Chinese hegemony
South Africa pushes back against China’s expansion in the country, as it is seen to unsettle local production in the short term. Elected officials, wary of how China’s expansion in Africa may benefit or harm local industries and manufacturing capacity, consider the risks posed by the currently fragmented Western trade agenda to be manageable.
Pretoria anticipates political corrections in countries such as the U.S., which will, in turn, result in the normalization of trade relations, eventually restoring stability that will ensure the much-needed economic development for regions including Africa.
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