China claiming space to reshape Earth
Beijing is fusing ancient strategy with modern technology to turn space into the next geostrategic battleground.
In a nutshell
- Beijing treats space as tomorrow’s contested military high ground
- Ancient Sun Tzu tactics now guide China’s modern orbital ambitions
- Space rivalry may spill onto Earth, potentially escalating global conflict
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This report is the second in a GIS series on spacepower. The first can be found here and part three can be found here.
China’s ambitions in space are not isolated technological projects, but components of a broader grand strategy tied to “national rejuvenation,” strategic positioning and long-term competition with the United States. Spacepower is becoming central to great power competition, and few states appear to understand this transformation more systematically than China.
For Beijing, space is not simply a scientific endeavor or symbol of prestige. It is increasingly viewed as a strategic domain through which economic influence, military power, technological leadership and geopolitical advantage can be expanded. China’s approach reflects a long-term effort to integrate astropolitics into a broader national strategy aimed at reshaping the balance of power in the 21st century.
This effort is tied directly to the Chinese Communist Party’s broader vision of national rejuvenation, which seeks to restore China to what it views as its rightful position as a leading global power by the centenary of the founding of the People’s Republic in 2049. Spacepower has become part of that vision. Chinese officials rarely speak openly about dominance, but their repeated calls to build China into a “major space power in all respects” reveal ambitions that extend well beyond participation in off-planet activities.
Grand strategy and strategic culture
China’s strategic outlook in space cannot be separated from its broader historical experience. Chinese leaders often frame the modern era through the lens of its “Century of Humiliation” from 1839-1949, emphasizing the dangers of weakness, fragmentation and technological inferiority. National rejuvenation, therefore, carries both symbolic and strategic meaning: It is intended not only to restore China’s status but also to prevent future vulnerability.
This historical consciousness shapes Beijing’s approach to long-term competition. Unlike democratic systems that often focus on short political cycles, Beijing increasingly operates on strategic timelines measured in decades. The year 2049 has become a practical horizon for China’s rise as a comprehensive great power. The country’s strategic writings increasingly portray spacepower as one of the decisive arenas through which this transformation will occur.
Its strategic approach to competition also reflects deeper currents within Chinese strategic thought. Ancient traditions associated with Sun Tzu emphasized shaping conditions, indirect advantage, deception and positional superiority before confrontation. Legalist thinkers such as Han Fei stressed centralized state power, disciplined governance and the organization of national strength. Historical figures such as Zhuge Liang came to be associated with patience, preparation, logistics and strategic maneuvering over time.
Contemporary Chinese strategy is not reducible to classical texts, yet these precepts continue to influence how Chinese leaders conceptualize competition, statecraft and national power.
For centuries, Chinese strategy remained largely continental and inward-facing, shaped by river systems, internal consolidation and defense against landward threats. Today, Beijing increasingly exhibits a transition from a Yangtze River mentality to a Pacific Ocean mentality – an outward-oriented strategic posture emphasizing maritime access, global infrastructure and, increasingly, astropolitical positioning beyond Earth itself.
In many respects, China’s ambitions in space resemble earlier periods of great power expansion in which rising powers extended competition into new domains. Maritime expansion reshaped international politics by creating new routes, strategic chokepoints and opportunities for economic and military influence. The voyages of Zheng He symbolized an earlier outward orientation in China before later dynasties retreated inward. Contemporary Chinese strategy increasingly suggests that Beijing does not intend to repeat that retreat.
The logic of great power competition is not disappearing. It is extending upward.
The Belt and Road Initiative further illustrates this logic. Through infrastructure, transportation corridors, strategic access points and long-term economic integration, China has sought to shape geopolitical advantage over time. In some respects, China’s emerging space strategy resembles an extension of this same logic into the Earth-Moon system.
Great powers historically compete where strategic advantage can be accumulated over time. Maritime bottlenecks, coaling stations, trade routes and naval infrastructure once shaped geopolitical rivalry across the oceans. As movement, infrastructure and economic activity expand into cislunar space (from the Earth out to and including the Moon), competition over positioning and access may increasingly resemble earlier eras of geopolitical expansion and strategic contestation.
The competition for cislunar space may ultimately resemble earlier struggles for control of the seas: not a contest for empty territory, but for the strategic architecture shaping future power.
The logic of great power competition is not disappearing. It is extending upward.
Spacepower and national rejuvenation
China’s space program has evolved rapidly over the past two decades. What began primarily as a prestige-oriented effort increasingly reflects a broader strategic architecture integrating military, commercial, industrial and geopolitical objectives.
China has developed an independent global navigation and timing architecture through the Beidou system, reducing reliance on the U.S.-operated GPS network while expanding China’s own positioning, navigation and timing capabilities worldwide. Beyond navigation, Beidou increasingly functions as strategic infrastructure supporting military operations, communications, logistics, transportation and digital connectivity. Beijing is also expanding its integration across Belt and Road partner states as part of a broader effort to internationalize Chinese technological standards and reduce dependence on Western systems. At the same time, Beijing continues investing heavily in launch systems, anti-satellite capabilities, lunar exploration, space-based surveillance and commercial space enterprises closely tied to national objectives.
These efforts are not isolated projects. They form part of a broader strategy designed to reduce vulnerability, expand strategic autonomy and position China advantageously within the emerging space economy.
Chinese strategic thinkers and affiliated analysts frequently emphasize what might be called “First Presence” – the idea that early positioning within emerging domains creates enduring strategic advantages later. This logic mirrors earlier geopolitical competition in maritime regions, where strategic ports, trade routes and naval stations served as the foundations of national influence. That was followed in the 1960s by the Soviet-American space race. A similar dynamic may now be happening with China.
China’s lunar ambitions are especially important. Beijing and Moscow have jointly promoted the International Lunar Research Station which aims to establish long-term infrastructure on and around the Moon. Chinese plans increasingly extend beyond symbolic exploration toward sustained cislunar operations, resource access and long-term positioning within the Earth-Moon system.
Chinese strategic timelines increasingly suggest a phased approach to long-term spacepower development. Near-term goals focus on lunar exploration, heavy lift capability, cislunar transportation and independent infrastructure. By the 2030s and 2040s, Chinese planning increasingly references a sustained lunar presence, resource extraction, space-based solar power and broader Earth-Moon economic integration. Some Chinese and affiliated strategic writings envision cislunar space becoming a major arena of economic and geopolitical competition by mid-century.
These ambitions increasingly overlap with broader industrial and geopolitical strategies. China appears to view space not merely as a military or scientific domain, but as a future arena for manufacturing, transportation, communications, resource extraction and strategic leverage.
The emerging astrography of competition
One of the most persistent criticisms of spacepower theory is the claim that space lacks geography. Nothing could be further from the truth.
While space remains a harsh vacuum, it also contains distinct regions and pathways that shape movement, access and strategic positioning. Low Earth orbit, geostationary orbit, lunar transfer routes and key positions within cislunar space all influence the structure of competition. Lagrange points – areas where gravitational and centrifugal forces balance – may eventually become strategically significant for communications, surveillance, logistics, transportation infrastructure and military positioning.
As activity expands beyond Earth orbit, efficient transfer routes and movement corridors may increasingly function like lines of communication in earlier geopolitical eras. As in maritime strategy, the concentration of movement and infrastructure creates areas where rivalry naturally intensifies.
The lunar poles are especially important because of their potential for accessing water ice and for sustained energy exposure. These characteristics make them attractive locations for long-duration infrastructure, fuel production and future logistical operations. Over time, strategic competition may increasingly center on who establishes the first enduring presence in these regions.
Facts & figures
The Lagrange Points
Other areas of astrographic significance may also emerge. The Van Allen radiation belts create operational constraints affecting movement and infrastructure. Kordylewski clouds near Earth-Moon Lagrange points remain poorly understood but may eventually carry observational or navigational significance. Hohmann transfer routes, gravitational wells and cislunar movement corridors may increasingly shape how states organize transportation and logistics beyond Earth orbit.
These areas do not guarantee permanent control any more than maritime chokepoints do on Earth. However, they may strongly influence where competition concentrates and where strategic advantage can be structured over time.
China appears increasingly aware of this emerging astrography. Its investments in lunar infrastructure, cislunar transportation, long-duration missions and space-based logistics suggest a long-term effort to establish a sustained presence beyond Earth orbit. Chinese discussions of the “Earth-Moon economic zone” reflect ambitions extending far beyond symbolic exploration.
This does not necessarily imply inevitable conflict. However, it does suggest that astropolitics and geopolitics are becoming increasingly intertwined. For decades, geopolitics shaped activity in space. Space systems largely supported terrestrial competition. That relationship is now evolving toward a condition of synthesis in which developments in space increasingly influence geopolitical outcomes on Earth.
Over time, that relationship may deepen further, with astropolitics exerting growing influence on the structure of international politics itself.
Military competition and strategic positioning
China’s military modernization increasingly integrates spacepower into broader operational doctrine. In 2024, Beijing dissolved the People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force. It redistributed its functions into separate organizations directly subordinate to the Central Military Commission, including the Aerospace Force, Cyberspace Force and Information Support Force.
China’s approach differs from Russia’s more disruption-oriented model. Beijing appears to be less focused on simple denial than on long-term strategic positioning.
The restructuring reflects China’s growing emphasis on integrated multi-domain operations, information dominance, cyber warfare and space-enabled command systems. Rather than reducing the importance of spacepower, the reorganization appears intended to streamline operational control and improve China’s capacity for what the country’s strategists describe as “intelligentized warfare.”
Counterspace capabilities remain an especially important component of this strategy. China continues investing in systems capable of disrupting, degrading or denying adversary space operations through cyber warfare, electronic warfare, direct-ascent anti-satellite systems and orbital capabilities designed to complicate rival operations.
At the same time, China’s approach differs from Russia’s more disruption-oriented model. Beijing appears to be less focused on simple denial than on long-term strategic positioning. Its strategy combines commercial development, military modernization, industrial policy, critical infrastructure and space-enabled information dominance into a comprehensive spacepower framework.
This integrated approach reflects a broader Chinese grand strategy. Spacepower is not viewed independently from maritime expansion, technological competition, industrial capacity or geopolitical influence. Rather, it functions as part of a larger effort to shape the future balance of power.
Transfer economics and the Earth-Moon system
The future of cislunar competition may ultimately depend as much on economics as military power. Historically, geopolitical competition intensified where commerce, transportation and strategic access converged. Similar patterns may emerge beyond Earth orbit.
As launch costs decline and infrastructure expands, transfer economics may increasingly shape strategic behavior in cislunar space. Efficient transportation routes, fuel depots, communications architecture, resource processing and logistical support systems could become essential components of long-term spacepower.
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Whichever state proves most capable of establishing reliable infrastructure throughout the Earth-Moon system may gain enduring advantages in mobility, economic influence and strategic positioning. Over time, cislunar logistics networks could become as geopolitically important as maritime trade routes or undersea communications infrastructure are today.
Scenarios
The U.S. still retains major advantages in alliances, commercial innovation, operational experience and military integration. Yet Chinese leaders appear increasingly willing to compete over timelines far longer than those typically associated with Western democracies. Beijing’s strategy emphasizes persistence, infrastructure, redundancy and sustained presence rather than rapid confrontation.
In this sense, China’s approach reflects a form of competitive endurance. Strategic success may depend less on achieving decisive dominance than on maintaining long-term resilience across multiple domains simultaneously.
This does not mean China’s rise in space is inevitable or uncontested. The U.S. and its allies retain major advantages, and the future trajectory of competition remains uncertain. Yet China’s approach demonstrates that astropolitics is no longer peripheral to international politics. It is becoming central to how great powers pursue influence, security and advantage over time.
The strategic competition now emerging within the Earth-Moon system may shape not only the future of spacepower, but the future distribution of power on Earth itself.
Most likely: Strategic competitive equilibrium
China and the U.S. continue competing across terrestrial and space domains while avoiding confrontation. Space becomes an environment of sustained strategic rivalry centered on infrastructure, positioning, resilience and technological competition. Cislunar space develops gradually into an arena of long-term geopolitical competition without large-scale conflict.
Somewhat likely: Cislunar strategic rivalry
Competition intensifies beyond Earth orbit as China accelerates efforts to establish infrastructure, logistics systems and a long-duration presence throughout the Earth-Moon system. Rivalries over transfer routes, lunar resources, communications infrastructure and strategic positioning increase tensions between major powers. Strategic locations such as Lagrange points and lunar poles become focal points of geopolitical competition.
Less likely: Escalation across domains
A geopolitical crisis on Earth could extend into space as states target communications, navigation, intelligence and orbital systems. Yet the reverse pathway is also increasingly plausible. A confrontation originating in space – through satellite disruption, orbital interference, cyber operations or competition over cislunar infrastructure – could spill rapidly back onto Earth by degrading critical military and civilian systems.
Competition over strategic positions, transfer corridors and infrastructure in cislunar space – including the Lagrange points – could evolve into sustained rivalry or confrontation. In such a scenario, space would no longer function merely as a supporting domain, but increasingly as an operational environment shaping geopolitical outcomes on Earth.
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