Why countries worldwide are cautious of Chinese exports
Beijing’s aggressive export strategy faces mounting resistance worldwide. Even countries friendly to China are erecting barriers to safeguard their industries.

In a nutshell
- Dumping practices threaten relationships, spurring defensive measures
- Countries from the Global South are increasingly wary of Beijing’s exports
- U.S. and EU policy to China will be critical for global trade dynamics
- For comprehensive insights, tune into our AI-powered podcast here
There is a famous saying by Confucius: “Stop expanding at the right moment when one has achieved much.” Unfortunately, today’s Chinese government has overlooked this sage advice in international trade, not only as regards affluent areas such as the United States or Europe, but also in the Global South, where many cost-efficient Chinese goods are very much needed.
The year 2025 will be critical for President Xi Jinping. If he continues to manage the Chinese economy, particularly exports, as he has over the past two years, he may face challenges to his absolute grip on power and a potential revolt within the Chinese Communist Party. China’s current situation is serious, but salvaging the economy is not impossible.
On the contrary, in a way, the Chinese government still has a few cards up its sleeve. The problem, however, is that in an autocratic country like China, what might otherwise be a strong card could be poorly played by the leader. Nevertheless, for now, China’s economy is not on the brink of collapse, nor is it doomed to such a fate.
China pivots exports to global majority countries
China’s manufacturing sector holds considerable export potential, given its size, capacity and diverse product range. The country’s export economy was earlier geared toward the affluent West, but in recent years, the wind has started blowing in the wrong direction. The U.S. is looking to revive its manufacturing sector, while Europe is trying to hold on to the industries it still has. More importantly, the tolerance that North America and the European Union once had for Chinese dumping practices, or selling under the cost to produce, has reached its limit. This shift is evident as Washington, Ottawa and Brussels have levied steep tariffs on electric cars imported from China.
In recent years, Beijing has begun changing the focus of its exports, or rather, it is expanding the range of its markets. Many global majority countries have become recipients of Chinese goods, from electric vehicles (EVs), mobile phones and other high-tech products to cheap goods or imitation brands. Innovative Chinese engineers and entrepreneurs (many of whom were educated in the U.S. and Europe) are putting technologies acquired – in some cases stolen − from developed countries, to make practical, affordable and even upgraded products for global markets.
At the same time, Mr. Xi’s government has deliberately fostered an environment that allows domestic enterprises to benefit from the so-called “low human rights dividend.” In other words, to remain competitive, Beijing tolerates blatant violations of existing labor laws, preventing the incomes of the majority of the Chinese population from rising as quickly as the country’s overall growth in gross domestic product (GDP).
Elected leaders in importing countries will have to choose between continued Chinese dumping and protecting their national economies.
For this reason, many less-affluent countries in the global majority initially appreciate affordable goods and technologies from China. Products with similar quality and prices are not available from developed countries. With its dominance in manufacturing products essential for the green energy transition, China is actively helping recipient countries reduce their carbon footprint via a solar energy rollout, the introduction of large numbers of EVs and battery availability.
Nevertheless, unless the importing countries are absolute dictatorships with leaders who can use coercion and crony-capitalist hegemony to permit the dumping of goods from China without considering the survival of their own domestic industries, there will eventually be pushback. Elected leaders in importing countries will have to choose between continued Chinese dumping and protecting their national economies.
Usually, most global majority countries maintain friendly or even strategic partnerships with Beijing. However, they may still face backlash against China’s relentless dumping practices that disregard local economic conditions. Take Pakistan, for example, which is often referred to as China’s “iron brother.” Despite their close ties, Pakistan’s GDP is much lower than China’s, and it produces goods at relatively higher costs, thus leading to increased market prices for domestically produced goods. Consequently, China’s dumping has become a threat to the Pakistani economy and its national interests.
Commercial hegemony model
Despite China’s official claims of socialism, in reality, when it comes to the functioning of the market, its economic model can be described as brutal capitalism, with savage practices from the state, corporate entities and individuals. The reason China has gained global hegemony in rare earth and critical mineral processing is due to the government’s intentional use of non-market (or “barbaric”) policy to drive processing prices down to the level of cabbages.
Over time, many of China’s foreign competitors, most notably rare-earth-processing companies in North America, Europe or Japan, have struggled to stay afloat and ultimately have gone out of business. China has taken advantage of such closures to expand its market share and subsequently to raise prices. This model, of course, has been embraced wholesale by Chinese companies and individuals who have been inculcated by decades of authoritarianism combined with this savage but successful business practice.
As China continues to export goods, it also exports its model of authoritarian crony capitalism. This can be seen in the Namibian bribery scandal involving the son of former Chinese President Hu Jintao (2003-2013) and his company, or the corruption of large state-owned enterprises in recipient countries through the “Go Out” strategy initiated in 2000 that was a precursor to the President Xi’s more recent Belt and Road Initiative. Many Chinese investments are closely tied to the corrupt regimes of respective countries.
Chinese business practices equated to slavery
A notable instance highlighting the gap between China’s supposed compassionate practices and reality is the recent incident involving BYD, the Chinese EV behemoth, and its first non-Asian manufacturing site in Brazil. In December, local authorities closed the plant just ahead of its planned opening in March 2025, citing “slavery-like conditions.” The Brazilian government is a leftist administration concerned with the interests of the working class and basic human rights, an orientation that the Chinese government also claims to share. Yet Brazil’s government was very surprised and even exasperated by the practices of BYD.
This incident seems to have changed Brazil’s perception of Chinese socialism somewhat. BYD’s factory in Brazil is not only an attempt to capitalize on the Latin America market, but the goal is also to use Brazil, similar to Mexico, as a springboard to reexport cars to the U.S., thereby avoiding tariffs on made-in-China EVs.
Read more by China expert Junhua Zhang
- China trapped in a cycle of deflation
- The politicization of Chinese stock markets
- The U.S.-China tug-of-war over chips and capital
During the construction of the factory, China relied on its own construction workers. Brazilian officials found BYD’s treatment of the Chinese laborers to be unacceptable, particularly concerning the workers’ living conditions, the intentional delays on the payment of wages and the temporary confiscation of passports. None of this is in line with basic Brazilian standards; hence, it was considered a form of slavery. It seems that in terms of fair treatment of workers, the so-called socialism practiced by China does not match the expectations of the leftist government of Brazil.
Officials in Brazil may struggle to realize that the business practices witnessed at BYD’s Brazilian plant are commonplace in China. Millions of migrant workers in China have been treated similarly and unfairly − or even worse − for decades amid the “low human rights dividend” practice that some Chinese elites so admire. What is even more illustrative is that Beijing, through Chinese state-controlled social media, later instructed the BYD workers to refute Brazil’s assertion that they were “slaves.” Instead, they were urged to say that Brazil had been provoked into the claims by other countries with ulterior motives (alluding to the U.S.).
Some Global South countries now erecting barriers
It should be noted that there are not many genuine leftist governments in the countries of the global majority today. In contrast, many formally democratic countries care about their national industries, in no small part because politicians need to secure votes. For this reason, it is important to recognize the changes now taking place in the countries of the global majority regarding their stance toward China.
In Mexico, police closed down the China Yiwu International Trade City in Mexico City in November on the grounds that the proliferation of counterfeit and imitation goods there was damaging the local economy. This was the third time in 2024 that the “trade city” had been shut down. Mexican authorities said that in addition to the Chinese site proffering counterfeit goods, its Chinese operators also evaded taxes and paid their employees extremely poor wages that paled in comparison to what Mexican companies are obligated to pay their employees.
At the end of 2024, the Mexican government issued a series of new trade policies, imposing a 35 percent import tariff on over 100 textile products imported from China and a 16 percent value-added tax on cross-border e-commerce platforms linked to China. Looking ahead, under pressure from the U.S., Mexico will certainly restrict China’s “curved rescue,” which involves Beijing operating in third countries to export goods to the U.S.

By July 2026, Brazil will raise tariffs on imported electric cars to 35 percent from the current 18 percent. Tariffs on other imports are also under discussion. Brazil has said nothing about the countries it is targeting, but China is the primary country that will be affected.
Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Commerce, in December, suspended local operations of Temu, one of China’s biggest online shopping platforms. Officials said Temu failed to register with the Vietnamese government as required, leading to claims that local manufacturers are facing unfair competition due to the extremely low prices of the Chinese e-commerce giant’s imported products.
Indonesia asked Apple and Google to remove Temu from their app stores in October to protect its small and medium-sized enterprises from a flood of extremely low-priced products. Turkey has imposed a 40 percent tariff on vehicle imports from China while Pakistan, in late 2024, levied a 30 percent tariff on several Chinese products that will last for five years.
Scenarios
China has been trying to use a wave of exports as a remedy to combat persistent deflation at home while securing itself as the preeminent world power. However, countries worldwide are increasingly concerned by Beijing’s aggressive actions. Rather than wait to see if Beijing adopts Confucius’s principle of “taking a middle road” in trade practices, both Western and global majority countries have begun to erect barriers to protect their domestic economies from Chinese dumping. This has two broadly possible outcomes.
Most likely: Chinese exports continue robustly
The greatest likelihood is that China’s exports to countries of the global majority will mostly remain buoyant throughout 2025. This is especially true regarding countries without modern economies, such as African states that have a limited industrial base and few levers to counter Chinese dumping.
As for Southeast Asia, many Chinese producers have moved parts of their value chains to the region, using it as a base for assembly of parts made in China to facilitate exports to Europe and the U.S. China’s exports of parts and components to Southeast Asia will likely continue at the same level as in 2024. If China succeeds in masking its dumping practices, it may prolong robust exports to the global majority countries.
Likely: Backlash against Chinese dumping in high-tech and automotive sectors
On the whole, most in the global majority still welcome China’s export of high-tech products thanks to their affordability. However, concerns about unfair practices in China’s trade with regions like South America are arising as regards high-tech products such as EVs. The outlook for trade depends on whether China progresses in technology transfers to manufacture these vehicles. Beijing is very reluctant to embark on technology transfers with countries of the Global South.
There has already been a backlash against Chinese dumping of small goods, which has hit Southeast Asian economies hard. Individual countries will begin to frequently take more pronounced defensive measures, especially for sectors sensitive to any given country. That backlash will inevitably spread to more valuable high-tech products, especially if South America and Southeast Asia can compete with China in some areas.
Uncertain: U.S. and EU policy regarding China
A wild card is how developed economies such as the U.S. or the EU adapt to China’s emerging practice of using Southeast Asia and South America as a springboard for exports to the West. With Donald Trump now in the White House and Brussels seeking to stave off an economic implosion, both regions are now much more sensitive in this regard.
Contact us today for tailored geopolitical insights and industry-specific advisory services.