A ‘Danish Model’ for Ukraine
The Danish Model directly funds Ukrainian arms production – speeding deliveries, strengthening domestic industry and catalyzing allied and Gulf partnerships.
In a nutshell
- The Danish Model funds weapons built by Ukrainian companies
- Defense firms gain combat-tested feedback to improve systems fast
- Gulf states signed defense deals with Ukraine after U.S. ties soured
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In the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, foreign military support for Ukrainian forces primarily came from existing stockpiles – often older equipment slated for retirement. While vital in holding the line, this aid soon proved unsustainable. Denmark took the lead in developing a new approach. After donating its entire fleet of aging F-16 fighter jets and all its artillery pieces, in 2024 Copenhagen pioneered what became known as the “Danish Model.”
The essence of the new approach was a defense procurement strategy that allowed Denmark to directly fund production of weapons and equipment within Ukrainian defense companies. Unlike reliance on Western suppliers, this approach dramatically shortened delivery times, strengthened Ukraine’s domestic defense industry and reduced the training burden associated with foreign systems. Using familiar, domestically produced systems enhances Ukrainian defenders’ efficiency.
The Danish government collaborated closely with Ukraine’s Ministry of Strategic Industries, which was invited to present a list of priority projects. Denmark would assess the recommended defense companies to ensure they possess the necessary skills and adequate safeguards to prevent misuse of funds. In its first year, the initiative delivered weapons worth 590 million euros to Ukraine, financed by Denmark, Iceland, Sweden and the European Peace Facility (EPF).
Although the initial funding was modest, representing less than 0.5 percent of total military aid to Ukraine since 2022, the precedent was significant. The EPF’s participation served as a strong endorsement, signaling that the Danish Model was seen as a viable path forward.
In January 2025, then Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov stated that “Denmark’s example will inspire other countries to adopt similar initiatives, as this will contribute to the future security of Europe and the world.” Several nations followed suit. In 2025, the new model was adopted by countries including Canada, Lithuania and the Netherlands.
Europe’s new approach
Since Ukrainian defense production facilities are attractive targets for Russian attacks, the Danish Model was expanded to allow weapons and equipment to be produced in Danish plants, where production is shielded from these threats. As other Nordic countries joined this initiative, the framework for a future model of military-industrial cooperation between Ukraine and Europe began to take shape.
The strategic importance of this approach became clear during the United States-Israel conflict with Iran. Relying on multi-million-dollar missiles to intercept low-cost drones turned out to be not only financially unfeasible, but it also implied that endurance would favor Iran. While the advanced missile stockpiles of the U.S. and Israel were depleting rapidly, Iran demonstrated that it had substantial reserves of cheap drones and missiles at its disposal. Even the world’s most advanced military struggled to effectively defend against the challenges posed by modern drone warfare.
In this context, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy offered help, noting that Ukraine had years of experience fighting precisely this kind of drone warfare, U.S. President Donald Trump condescendingly retorted that President Zelenskiy was the last person from whom he would accept help.
For many other governments, however, seeking Ukrainian expertise became a priority. By the end of March 2026, several Gulf states, such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, had signed 10-year defense agreements with Kyiv.
Given Ukraine’s proven ingenuity and engineering track record in weapons development, providing direct financial support not only ensures a good return on investment but also fosters collaboration. For companies that manufacture cutting-edge weapons, partnering closely with Ukraine offers the unique opportunity to receive real-time feedback from Ukrainian troops using those weapons against Russian targets and drones of Iranian design. Given the rapid evolution of the modern battlefield, the importance of such immediate feedback cannot be overstated.
Business opportunities in Ukraine
In addition to geopolitical and security reasons that motivate governments, companies in the defense sector have compelling reasons to seize emerging opportunities. Ukraine has expressed gratitude for the willingness of Nordic partners to supply top-of-the-line weapons systems. Two notable examples are the Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) and the Swedish Archer artillery system, both of which have demonstrated high effectiveness. Additionally, Ukraine has secured agreements with Sweden for Saab Gripen fighter jets.
While governments may claim credit for their substantial contributions to Ukraine’s defense, it is the companies manufacturing these weapon systems that gain unique opportunities to enhance their capabilities through actual combat experience against Russia. With warnings of a potential armed conflict between Russia and NATO becoming increasingly frequent, the arms industry is not only anticipating an expanding market driven by rising government defense spending, but also facing a highly competitive landscape. Producers that establish strong relationships with Ukraine are likely to gain a significant advantage.
Having already provided its advanced Erieye Airborne Early Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft, Sweden and Saab are advancing plans for Gripen fighters to form a major part – potentially the mainstay – of Ukraine’s future air force.
Beyond legacy tanks
It is increasingly clear how the technological and industrial relationship between Ukraine and Europe is likely to develop. Alongside establishing their own production facilities in Ukraine, European defense companies will be encouraged to forge close partnerships with innovative Ukrainian firms that possess valuable firsthand experience with the evolving nature of modern warfare.
The essence of this transformation, and how some legacy defense manufacturers have yet to appreciate the agility of Ukraine’s on-the-go ingenuity, was highlighted when the chief executive officer of the German company Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger, dismissed Ukrainian drone production as “housewives with 3D printers,” comparing their work to “playing with Legos.” Although the company quickly issued an apology, much reputational damage had been done. The remark sparked widespread outrage, prompting President Zelenskiy to quip that “If every housewife in Ukraine really can produce drones, then every housewife could be the CEO of Rheinmetall.”
The incident underscored the importance of rapid adaptation to the evolving realities of the battlefield. While Rheinmetall is poised to remain one of Europe’s top arms manufacturers, renowned for producing cutting-edge equipment like the Leopard Main Battle Tank, it must acknowledge that the modern battlefield is shifting away from reliance on heavy ground-based equipment, which is highly vulnerable to drone attacks. In this context, Ukraine is taking the lead in forging a new path.
Bringing together the established hi-tech capabilities of leading Nordic arms manufacturers with the innovative spirit of Ukrainian engineers – who are proficient in adapting drones and other weaponry to meet evolving challenges – creates a genuine win-win scenario. Participants in the Danish Model stand to gain significantly by fostering trust with their Ukrainian partners. This collaboration will enable real-time feedback and vital intelligence sharing, both of which are crucial for mastering the full spectrum of battlefield innovation, from highly advanced, capital-intensive technology to low-cost, human ingenuity-driven advancements. As Russian expertise in modern drone warfare continues to grow in parallel with Ukraine’s, such collaboration will provide an important business and security edge.
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Geopolitical repercussions from the Trump administration’s actions, which are alienating both allies and partners, will shape the European defense industry’s future trajectory. The growing concern in Europe about the role of the U.S. in NATO is made more unnerving by strong signs that Washington’s relations with Middle Eastern allies are fracturing.
A clear indication of this came when the Gulf states reached defense agreements with Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly expressed his frustration, noting that Saudi Arabia should have consulted the U.S. first.
Another and more powerful sign of souring relations occurred when President Trump made an unprecedented insult directed at Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, implying that the Saudi leader was his subordinate. Riyadh answered bluntly, saying there would be no more Saudi purchases of U.S. weapons.
Scenarios
Most likely: Europe builds a new security alliance with Ukraine
The most likely scenario is that the rupture between the U.S. and its allies causes a profound geopolitical transformation where European security is explicitly built to include Ukraine.
Several European countries concerned about a potential confrontation with Russia have begun preparing a Plan B. This is not intended to replace NATO but aims to establish a powerhouse of members willing to take additional steps for combined security. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently announced an upgrade in Berlin’s relations with Kyiv to a “strategic partnership” and shared a military support package worth 4 billion euros.
If this grouping of countries draws on the experience of the Danish Model, which emphasizes close cooperation with Ukraine, it may become a serious force in battlefield innovation. If it includes Germany, Poland, the Nordic-Baltic Eight, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Canada, it will create a completely new geopolitical reality that could overshadow NATO’s role. If it collaborates with Turkiye, a country with NATO’s second-largest military and strong ties to Ukraine, its influence will shift even more decisively eastward.
If this initiative is combined with financing and cooperation from Gulf states that have lost faith in the U.S., it could lead to crucial international defense partnerships. For Ukraine, this perspective offers a more promising outlook for future security than the continuous quest for NATO membership.
Least likely: The U.S. rebuilds Gulf ties and sustains NATO dominance
The least likely scenario is that the U.S. successfully extricates itself from the war against Iran and rebuilds its relationships with the Gulf states and the Old Continent. For Europe, this would mean a sustained American presence in NATO, continued dependence on American weaponry and possibly even increased support for Ukraine.
There are compelling reasons to consider this scenario as highly improbable. Beyond the Gulf states’ growing sense that they have relied too heavily on U.S. protection, they stand to gain significantly from collaborating with Ukraine. Additionally, the public humiliation President Trump inflicted on the Saudi crown prince will be a significant obstacle to restoring trust.
European trust in the U.S. has been significantly shaken by President Trump’s reluctance to confront Russia aggressively, his open threats of military action against Greenland, plans to draw down troops from Germany and the controversial speeches made by Vice President JD Vance.
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