The resurgence of Egyptian diplomacy
As Middle Eastern tensions rise, Egypt is leveraging its historical influence and strategic interests to revive its role as a key regional mediator.
In a nutshell
- Egypt seeks to use regional crises to reassert its diplomatic influence
- It maintains stable relations with global powers like the U.S. and Russia
- Cairo continues to push its Gaza reconstruction plan despite setbacks
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Few observers believed Egyptian diplomacy would make a comeback after the 2011 Arab Spring. The Muslim Brotherhood’s brief tenure in government, followed by its ousting by the military, suggested that the country was trapped in chronic instability and confined to a defensive stance amid crises. The Covid-19 pandemic cost Egypt $16 billion, while the war in Ukraine exposed it to the risk of grain shortages that jeopardized its ability to feed its population.
Yet, Egypt has demonstrated resilience in the face of significant challenges. A pivotal issue for the country has been the Nile River. The urgency surrounding water resource allocation escalated in 2011 when Ethiopia began constructing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam upstream. With more than 90 percent of Egypt’s freshwater supply dependent on the Nile, President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi stated that “the waters of Egypt are untouchable, and touching them is a red line.” Cairo adopted an assertive regional strategic approach – often called the “fellah” policy, named after the farmers who rely on the river for their livelihoods. Although the dispute remains unresolved, it marked the start of Egypt’s diplomatic reassertion.
Terrorism in the Sinai
Egypt’s counterterrorism efforts in the Sinai Peninsula have also proven critical to its resurgence in regional influence. Since 2015, Cairo has battled Wilayat Sinai, an Islamic State (also known as ISIS) faction that challenged its authority and advanced a secessionist narrative aimed at establishing a caliphate. To counter the group’s violent Islamist extremism, President El-Sisi launched a military operation in 2018. As is often the case in asymmetric warfare, the campaign has been prolonged.
While the threat from ISIS remnants persists, the state’s counterterrorism strategy has yielded results, both militarily, in suppressing extremist groups, and socially, through the launch of an economic development program for the Sinai.
Following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Egypt found itself unwittingly pulled into the regional turmoil. Bound by a time-honored peace treaty with Tel Aviv and close ties to the Palestinians (former Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat was born in Egypt), there was a natural expectation that Egyptian diplomacy would step up to play a key role in resolving the conflict. Had Cairo limited itself to mediation, the Israeli government would have had little to object to. What many did not foresee, however, was Cairo’s plan to take advantage of the crisis to reestablish its regional clout.
While Israeli-Egyptian relations are not always marked by enthusiasm, they have consistently shown stability and a degree of continuity, occasionally aligning in their tactical outlooks. This collaboration was particularly evident in their joint efforts to combat ISIS in the Sinai Peninsula. Although this breached the demilitarization terms outlined in the peace agreement reached by the two countries in 1979, military action was deemed essential to address the threat posed by Islamist militants in the region.
The peace treaty stipulated that Egypt would limit its military presence in the Sinai to 22,000 troops. However, according to the Israeli news outlet Nziv, Egypt now maintains approximately 42,000 soldiers in the Sinai Peninsula and has expanded its military infrastructure. This includes modernizing the Bir Gifgafa airbase, deploying M60 Patton and M1A1 Abrams tanks in forward positions near the Rafah border crossing and constructing planned road networks along with underground ammunition and fuel depots.
The recent deployment has sparked significant concerns in Tel Aviv, which sees it as a violation of the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty. While Cairo is aware of this perception, it largely disregards Israeli criticism. It knows that Israel needs a strong Arab ally to help secure its western border and combat threats posed by radical Islam. Israeli officials often turn to Egyptian mediators to facilitate negotiations, relying on their insight into the complex network of armed groups, particularly in the Palestinian cities of Gaza and Nablus.
Another factor behind Egypt’s current assertiveness is its established role as a credible interlocutor among global powers. In addition to the legacy of the Camp David Accords, Egypt has maintained decades of bilateral engagement with the United States, its main provider of military and economic aid, and with Russia, a partner in energy and defense. This enduring diplomatic capital has translated into renewed confidence and initiative.
Egyptian diplomats are now promoting the country’s own plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The plan includes raising $53 billion over five years to rebuild Gaza, establishing a transitional administration led by non-partisan figures and technocrats and creating an international fund to ensure transparency in resource allocation. The objective is to prevent Iran from channeling funds into the conflict unchecked. Despite being rejected by both Tel Aviv and Washington, Cairo continues to advocate for its proposal.
The leadership in Egypt is operating with greater confidence, recognizing that the situation in Gaza has become a catalyst for political momentum both domestically and across the Arab world, where Cairo strives to regain its former influence.
Egypt knows it has a card to play. It holds significant sway due to its geographic proximity to the Gaza Strip and its direct contacts with all Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, both of which have received support from Iran. Once again, this is a diplomatic lever: to bring the Palestinian cause back into the Arab fold and distance it from Iran, whose influence in the region has had well-documented negative consequences.
Intra-Arab rivalry
The ongoing Middle East crisis has revealed long-standing rivalries within the Arab world. While Cairo maintains its posture as an experienced and historic power, it now faces growing competition from Qatar, which has made strides in both official and backchannel negotiations. In addition to Hamas’s political leadership being based in Doha (facilitating engagement), Qatar is seeking to challenge Egypt’s traditional role.
This ambition was underscored by the so-called “Qatargate” affair, revealed in late March, which implicates two senior advisors to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They are suspected of receiving Qatari funds to promote a favorable image of the emirate in the Israeli media. According to the investigation, the same funds were allegedly used to promote narratives critical of Egyptian diplomacy and challenge its growing regional role.
To understand these fault lines, it is essential to recall that since the 1950s, the Palestinian cause has been a key marker of regional legitimacy across the Arab world. This is especially true for Egypt, whose territory shares a direct border with Palestinian territory. Cairo controls the Rafah crossing point, the main gateway for humanitarian aid and the evacuation of the wounded. By presenting itself as the custodian of the Palestinian cause, Egyptian engagement capitalizes on the long-standing paralysis of the Arab League, a regional body theoretically expected to lead on this issue but consistently hampered by internal divisions.
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For decades, the Arab world was shaped by dominant ideological blocs: Arab nationalism or pan-Arabism, Wahhabism and Khomeinism. Today’s crisis reveals a post-ideological Arab landscape. The focus has shifted to pragmatic approaches, rooted in immediate security concerns and commercial development interests. The Palestinian issue, no longer a symbolic cause, has become a political lever to consolidate regional leadership and sideline rivals.
Cairo has clearly understood this shift. Gaza is undeniably a humanitarian tragedy that resonates deeply across the region. Yet, through the lens of realpolitik, it has also become a platform for performative diplomacy, where showcasing the ability to influence the course of the crisis serves national interests.
Egypt has taken a high-stakes position, committing itself to a role where success is critical. The challenge now is to remain a central player in the mediation effort regarding the Palestinian issue, and above all, to secure a seat at the table when any future peace agreement is negotiated.
Scenarios
Most likely: Egypt leverages the Middle East crisis for diplomatic gain
In the most likely scenario, Egyptian authorities use the Middle East crisis as a diplomatic opportunity to expand their influence along three strategic axes. To the south, in Sudan, Egypt continues its support for the military regime. In the Maghreb, particularly Libya, Egypt seeks to secure a role in shaping the final terms of a peace settlement. And in the Persian Gulf, Cairo ultimately manages to assert its voice.
Through persistence and engagement, the Egyptians establish themselves as credible mediators. Over time, the Gulf emirates and Egypt recognize that rivalry is counterproductive and that regional complementarity can serve as a source of mutual influence and progress throughout the Arab world.
Less likely: Egypt’s diplomatic standing is weakened
Under a second, less likely scenario, Egypt finds it difficult to enhance its role in addressing the Palestinian issue, as it faces major challenges in securing international backing. Moreover, major powers overlook its proposed plans for Gaza, ultimately weakening its diplomatic standing. This setback would compel Cairo to open its border to Palestinian refugees, at least during Gaza’s reconstruction phase.
As is often the case in the region, the refugee camps would gradually become permanent fixtures in the Sinai Peninsula. The financial burden associated with this influx would add to the country’s already strained public finances. In seeking to play a central role in resolving the region’s crises, Egyptian diplomacy, after a brief resurgence, slips back into a prolonged phase of marginalization.
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