Georgia’s trajectory: From revolution to Russian influence
Western governments hesitate to take a firm stand against Russian influence in Georgia despite the urgent need for support.
In a nutshell
- Georgia is central to the pro-Western and pro-Russian conflict
- A rigged 2024 election has boosted Russian influence in the political system
- The pro-Russian camp now controls Georgia’s state apparatus
The small South Caucasus Republic of Georgia is yet again in the limelight, serving as a battleground where the prospects for restoring a Russian empire will be decided. It is certainly not the only one in this position: Ukraine overshadows everything else happening in this regard, and its outcome will of course also play a crucial role in determining Russia’s fate. This noted, there are good reasons why paying close attention to developments in Georgia is important.
Over the past two decades, the country has consistently been at the center of a tug-of-war between pro-Western forces advocating for European Union membership and pro-Russian forces pushing for reintegration with Russia. This struggle may ultimately provide important insights into how Russia plays its game for a return to the empire and how Western governments respond to Georgia’s pleas for inclusion in the Western community.
With a grossly rigged parliamentary election on October 26 this year, Georgia won the dubious distinction of being the first among the former Soviet republics to have come full circle, from a transition to a liberal, pro-Western democracy to having its political system recaptured by Russian influence operations. The country is now on the verge of being returned to the Russian sphere of influence.
Ongoing unrest is gripping Tbilisi and other parts of the country after the ruling Georgian Dream party announced its victory. Opposition groups have raised concerns, labeling the election as fraudulent. Thousands have taken to the streets to demonstrate against the supposed electoral fraud. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement that Georgia would delay EU membership discussions until 2028 generated backlash and incited a new wave of protests.
A brief history of Georgia’s journey toward Europe
Georgia’s pivot to Europe began with the Rose Revolution in November 2003. This movement was the first in a series of “color revolutions,” including Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution. Georgia’s Rose Revolution led to Mikheil Saakashvili’s election as president in January 2004. With a degree from George Washington University Law School, President Saakashvili was well-connected in Washington’s circles of power and would be a loyal ally to the United States.
Under his leadership, Georgia sent soldiers to support the U.S.-led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. By 2008, it had deployed 2,300 troops in Iraq, becoming the third-largest contributor to the coalition forces in that war. At the NATO meeting in Bucharest in April 2008, Georgia expected to get a Membership Action Plan. While the U.S. strongly supported this proposal, it was met with firm Franco-German refusal.
The implication was that Russia had been given a de facto veto on further NATO enlargement. In August 2008, with its elite troops deployed in Iraq, Georgia was invaded by the Russian army. It would subsequently also have parts of its territory annexed by Russia. The Kremlin had read the message from the West and was acting upon it.
The domestic turning point for Georgia’s Western aspirations was marked by the October 2012 parliamentary elections. President Saakashvili’s party had become deeply mired in corruption by then and had set the stage for a Russian pushback. The election winner was Georgian Dream, a party founded by the billionaire businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili. A Georgian national, he had made his fortune in Russia during the wild 1990s and returned to Georgia with extensive Russian networks. Following his party’s victory, Mr. Ivanishvili assumed the post of prime minister.
In November 2013, after President Saakashvili had served the maximum two terms, the Georgian Dream party nominated one of its own, Giorgi Margvelashvili, for the presidency. Mr. Ivanishvili stepped down and proceeded to rule from behind the scenes. Over the next decade, his party would cement its grip on power, capturing large parts of the state apparatus.
Facts & figures
Timeline of Georgia’s EU candidacy
July 2016: The Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between the EU and Georgia come into force.
March 2022: Georgia applies for EU membership.
June 2022: The European Commission recommends candidate status and outlines 12 key priorities, which are endorsed by the European Council.
November 2023: The commission recommends candidate status on the understanding that nine steps are implemented.
December 2023: The council grants candidate status on the understanding that Georgia takes relevant steps set out in the commission’s recommendations.
June 2024: The council finds the Georgian government’s course of action jeopardized Georgia’s EU path, leading to a halt in the accession process.
November 2024: Georgia suspends EU membership discussions until 2028.
While the general population has remained overwhelmingly pro-Western and the government has publicly favored joining the EU, behind the scenes, the regime has been moving steadily closer to Russia. Europe, rather than reinforcing its support for pro-European forces within Georgia, has instead succumbed to a growing sense of “Georgia fatigue.” In June 2022, the European Council granted candidate status to Moldova and Ukraine but excluded Georgia.
Meanwhile, Georgian Dream has shown growing determination to secure its grip on power. EU mediation resolved street protests sparked by attempts to rig the November 2020 parliamentary elections. In March 2023, the government upped the ante with a bill on “foreign agents” that was taken straight out of the Russian playbook. Following violent protests, it withdrew the bill. (However, despite opposition, the parliament reintroduced the bill in 2024.) The parliamentary elections on October 26 this year marked the final showdown.
According to the official results announced by the government-controlled Central Electoral Commission (CEC), Georgian Dream won 54 percent of the vote, up from 48 percent in the 2020 election. The opposition objected vociferously, claiming to have evidence of a landslide victory. As a result, Georgia was thrown into a deep political crisis, the resolution of which will have ramifications far beyond the country and the region.
In the run-up to the election, there was widespread confidence that a new government would indeed be elected. Even Mr. Ivanishvili admitted, “People have probably grown tired of Georgian Dream over these 12 years – it’s very difficult in democratic states to keep electing the same government.” On October 20, the confidence of the political opposition had come to the fore when a mass rally took place in Liberty Square, right in the heart of Tbilisi, pushing for Georgia to join the European Union.
Among the speakers was the current President Salome Zourabichvili, who came out strongly in favor of the European choice: “There is nothing more precious than freedom and peace. Today, here are the Georgians who enter Europe peacefully, with dignity, and as Georgians.” Given that October 20 was also an important day in Moldova, with a presidential election and a referendum on EU accession, she took the opportunity to directly address Moldovan President Maia Sandu: “Maia, I hope today will be your victory day and the victory of the European referendum. We will enter Europe together.”
Russian interference: The difference between Georgia and Moldova
There were good reasons why President Zourabichvili chose to address President Sandu, reasons that go beyond the fact that both are strong women who have played critical roles in the development of their respective countries. Although their paths have been somewhat different, Georgia and Moldova share many experiences in their relations with Russia. Both countries have had to deal with the reality of de facto Russian occupation of parts of their territories and they have also faced the entire playbook of Russian influence operations.
The presidential election in Moldova featured the same well-orchestrated campaign of vote buying and voter intimidation that would be played out in Georgia. On election night, President Sandu claimed to have evidence that around 300,000 votes had been purchased through a massive influx of cash from Russia.
The aftermath of the Georgian election demonstrated that while Russian capture of the state had been pervasive, it had not been complete.
The main difference between the two is that the Moldovan government has managed to resist Russian interference by retaining control over the state apparatus. Following the favorable vote in the October 20 referendum, the government amended the Moldovan Constitution to include a clause on joining the EU. Although she failed to win a majority in the first round, President Sandu got reelected with a comfortable margin in the subsequent runoff.
In Georgia, the question of who controls the state has revolved around the role of President Zourabichvili. Having won her first election in 2018 as a candidate of Georgian Dream, during her tenure she became increasingly critical of the government and on numerous occasions used her veto to block government legislation. In October 2023, she narrowly escaped an impeachment attempt by the government. When the opposition cried foul about the recent election, she called on Georgians to mobilize and launch legal challenges to annul the outcome.
The aftermath of the Georgian election demonstrated that while Russian capture of the state had been pervasive, it had not been complete. President Zourabichvili was not alone in opposing the alleged fraud. Equally important was a judge named Vladimir Khuchua, who ruled in favor of complaints filed by an opposition non-governmental organization. He annulled specific polling station results, emphasizing that his actions were taken “in the name of Georgia.”
Although the Tbilisi Court of Appeals would later overturn Judge Khuchua’s ruling, he said the election was rigged. During its deliberations, the court demanded an examination of the voting machines which were found to have been tampered with, compromising voter anonymity. Additionally, the CEC appeared to have actively removed essential safeguards to prevent multiple voting.
The opposition kept up street rallies and even erected a tent camp outside parliament but it could not stop the new parliament from opening on November 25. Given that the president and the opposition chose to boycott what they called an unconstitutional gathering, only 88 out of 150 members were present, all representing the Georgian Dream party. The final nail in the coffin for Georgian democracy came on December 14, when a candidate from Georgian Dream, Mikheil Kavelashvili, was selected to replace President Zourabichvili. Kavelashvili, a former footballer recognized for his critical views on the West, garnered 224 out of 225 votes from the electoral college.
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The stage had been set with a constitutional amendment in 2017 that abolished the prior practice of direct presidential elections, instead stipulating that a 300-member College of Electors will choose the president. As the government-controlled CEC appoints its members in turn, it was a foregone conclusion that Ms. Zourabichvili would not return to power.
Scenarios
Onward developments now look set to favor Russia. In stark contrast to Moldova, where the pro-European forces have retained control over the state apparatus, the pro-Russian camp controls Georgia, which has far-reaching implications.
Most likely: Russia solidifies its control in the region
The most likely scenario is that Russia will proceed to cement its grip. This will not only ensure that the Georgian government remains on the side of Russia in matters relating to its war against Ukraine. It will also increase pressure on Moldova, which is to hold parliamentary elections no later than July 2025, and on Armenia, which has sought to distance itself from Moscow’s control. Above all, it will imply deeper integration of the partially recognized state of Abkhazia and the annexed territory of South Ossetia into the Russian economic system. This will secure continued Russian access to Black Sea ports on the coast of Abkhazia, which is added bad news for Kyiv, compounding the likely outlook that Russia will receive military equipment from Georgia for use in Ukraine.
Somewhat likely: More uprisings against Russian control
An alternative scenario recalls how Georgia took its first steps toward the West via its Rose Revolution. Given that young people strongly favor a pro-European choice, continued mobilization may again achieve what was achieved then. Important parallels are being drawn between the current mobilization in Tbilisi and what the Ukrainians achieved in Kyiv in 2014. Given that Russia is now in de facto control of the Georgian state apparatus and may not shy away from using violence, a successful turn to the West will require that elements of the police and/or the military switch sides.
A recent uprising in Abkhazia – a self-declared independent region, still widely regarded as part of Georgia – supports this scenario, as violent protests against Russification caused the resignation of the self-styled president of the territory, Aslan Bzhania. Moreover, a serious Georgian bid to join the EU would be very helpful for Armenia. European governments could go beyond public condemnations of election fraud and follow the pattern formed during the prior color revolutions, supporting youth activism. However, given their general unwillingness to stand up against Russian influence operations, it is unlikely that they will provide such support.
Although Georgian opposition activists may be expected to make great sacrifices, they will face impossible odds if left to their own devices. The Kremlin will view the capture of Georgia as a first step toward the resurrection of its empire, which will enhance its determination to move against other targets. For the West, standing idly by when Russia captured Georgia may turn out to be a big mistake.
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