POLITICSApril 15, 2026

The never-ending power struggle in Guinea-Bissau

Teresa Nogueira Pinto

Reading time: 8 min

Another coup has derailed Guinea-Bissau’s fragile democracy, with the military junta removing President Embalo and freezing the electoral process.

Guinea-Bissau, a small West African nation, is once again experiencing a political crisis after the latest military coup. The assassination of Vigario Balanta – a vocal critic of the coup authorities and leader of the Po di Terra movement – along with the shutdown of private radio stations, highlights the worsening political situation in Guinea-Bissau.

Before the official results of the November 2025 general election had been released, both the incumbent president, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, who has held office since 2019, and the opposition candidate, Fernando Dias da Costa, declared victory. The self-proclaimed High Military Command for the Restoration of National Security and Public Order said it had suspended the electoral process and ousted President Embalo from office. The junta stated that it now holds complete control over the government and all state institutions.

Institutionalized instability

Since gaining independence in 1974, political instability has been the norm rather than the exception in Guinea-Bissau. This near-permanent cycle of crises and irregular power transfers reflects a combination of enduring structural factors.

First, some branches of the armed forces have played a prominent, frequently destabilizing role in political life, intervening directly during periods of institutional contestation or uncertainty.

Second, the state’s heavy reliance on external actors has exacerbated domestic weaknesses. Approximately 50 percent of the national budget comes from external assistance. Ongoing security crises have prompted interventions by international and regional entities, which often pursue differing agendas. These include the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the United Nations, the African Union and regional powers such as Senegal and Angola.

Third, Guinea-Bissau has developed into a key hub for transnational illicit networks, especially in drug and arms trafficking and illegal logging. While most of the population lives in extreme poverty, those in power can tap into substantial illicit profits.

Ethnic and social divisions add to the country’s fragility. Guinea-Bissau is a Portuguese-speaking country surrounded by French-speaking neighbors and home to more than 20 ethnic groups. Unlike in countries like Nigeria, ethnic differences have not sparked major public conflict, but politicians and military leaders often exploit them for their own rivalries.

Unsurprisingly, the adoption of a democratic constitution in 1991, along with the establishment of separation of powers and multipartyism within a semi-presidential framework, marked a clear break from the earlier focus on Pan-Africanism and socialism. However, Guinea-Bissau has struggled to establish a stable, fully functioning democratic system or a viable alternative.

Guinea-Bissau differs from patterns seen in other African regimes. It has not created a stable leadership system focused on a single powerful individual or a dominant ruling party. Instead, the country has seen an unusually rapid turnover of presidents since gaining independence. No president has ever been reelected, and many have taken office or left it through irregular means, most commonly military coups.

President Embalo came to power following the 2019 elections, which were marred by widespread allegations of irregularities and fraud. Over the past six years, he has focused on increasing the power of the presidency while attempting to centralize authority. In 2023, after the opposition coalition led by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) gained an absolute majority, the president dissolved the National Assembly and announced an extension of his mandate. On the international front, aligning with regional trends, he strengthened ties with Russia.

The opposition claims that the coup was orchestrated by key figures within the military elite to prevent substantial changes in power. Two factors support this theory. First, General Horta Inta-A Na Man, a close ally of former President Embalo, was appointed to lead the transitional government. Second, several opposition leaders, including former prime minister and head of the PAIGC, Domingos Simoes Pereira, were arrested.

From fragile state to narco-state

Guinea-Bissau is located along the Atlantic corridor that links South America to West Africa. The country features an archipelago of 82 islands and a coastline characterized by deeply indented rivers and mangrove swamps. These geographical features, along with weak institutions and a nearly nonexistent law enforcement capacity, have made Guinea-Bissau an ideal transit hub for cocaine trafficking from Venezuela and Colombia into Europe.

Guinea-Bissau’s importance in the cocaine trafficking route began to rise as Europe emerged as a particularly appealing market for the drug trade, due to its potential for high profits and relatively lower risks compared to the United States. A report from the European Union Drugs Agency in 2025 revealed that in 2023, 419 tons of cocaine were confiscated across several European nations, marking the seventh consecutive year of record seizures. Guinea-Bissau became a hub for this trafficking network in 2005, coinciding with the start of Joao Bernardo Vieira’s second presidential term, a period that ended tragically when he was killed by a military faction in 2009. By 2007, international media began labeling the country as Africa’s first “narco-state.”

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Facts & figures

Guinea-Bissau

Although reliable data is scarce, the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime estimates that between two and three tons of cocaine pass through Guinea-Bissau each month en route to Europe. As the value of drug trafficking surpasses the country’s national income, political and military elites are increasingly willing to compete for control of the operations.

The 2012 military coup led by then-Army Chief Antonio Indjai was driven in part by fierce competition for control of the drug trade. Mr. Indjai later faced accusations from the U.S. Justice Department for conspiring to assist the Colombian FARC by storing their cocaine in West Africa. He was also charged with conspiring to sell weapons – including surface-to-air missiles – intended to protect FARC’s cocaine processing operations in Colombia from U.S. military interventions. Additionally, he was implicated in efforts to import narcotics into America. In 2013, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration carried out an operation aimed at capturing former Navy Chief Jose Americo Bubo Na Tchuto.

More by Africa expert Teresa Nogueira Pinto

• Madagascar after the coup
• Uganda enters a more fragile phase 
• Angola at 50: Resources, unrest and a political crossroads

Geopolitical shift

In the post-Cold War era, regional dynamics have become increasingly important in Guinea-Bissau, with Senegal and Angola emerging as major contenders for political and economic influence. Concurrently, various regional and international organizations – such as ECOWAS, the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP), the African Union, the EU and the UN – have been involved in the country. Their initiatives have largely focused on supporting political transitions and implementing security sector reforms. However, recent events have shown that these efforts have had minimal impact.

The latest coup has led to Guinea-Bissau’s suspension from ECOWAS, the African Union and the CPLP. This increasing isolation from traditional partners highlights the growing ties between Bissau and Moscow during President Embalo’s administration. Notably, Mr. Embalo visited the Kremlin in February 2025 to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russian companies are now involved in bauxite extraction in the country, and several security agreements have been established. Emulating strategies used in other African nations, Russia has shown interest in developing vital infrastructure, including a railway linking Guinea-Bissau to other West African countries and the long-anticipated deepwater port project in Buba.

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