Netanyahu’s coalition to face post-war calls for elections
As Israel’s Gaza war concludes, escalating domestic pressures signal public demand for an alternative to Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition.
In a nutshell
- Intense domestic political disputes resume in Israel as its wars wind down
- Three domestic triggers could topple the coalition government
- Netanyahu’s bloc will likely hold only through the end of the Gaza war
Very few Israeli governments endure for their entire four-year terms. It is quite common for party leaders in coalition governments to bolt and force new elections during a term of office. In fact, in little more than three years − from April 2019 to November 2022 − Israel held five national polls to elect representatives to its parliament (the Knesset) as consecutive coalitions collapsed. Nevertheless, the current right-wing coalition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hung together for two years since it was sworn in on December 29, 2022.
No doubt aiding this perseverance is the war in Gaza, sparked by Hamas in October 2023. The conflict has kept the entire country focused on external threats, from a multifront war in both Gaza and Lebanon to missiles and drones shot into Israel by Iran, the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias based in Syria and Iraq. Now, however, pent-up domestic pressures in Israel are resurfacing and raising expectations that the Netanyahu government may dissolve sooner rather than later.
Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 60-day ceasefire on November 27, 2024. Meanwhile, the war in Gaza is ongoing, but there are signs a truce there, too, may be in the offing. The threat of additional Iranian missile strikes remains palpable. Nevertheless, the fighting is easing after 14 months of intense action, a growing number of reservist soldiers are being released to return to work and university, and Israeli society is beginning, fitfully, to resume normalcy.
That status quo includes a resumption of intense domestic politics. The Netanyahu government has again started talking about reviving controversial judicial reform efforts and taking firmer control of state media. The largely secular political center and center-left are discussing responses, leading to street demonstrations, labor union strikes and, perhaps, government dissolution and new elections.
Prospects for fresh elections
An evaluation of the Israeli government’s staying power begins by looking at the members of the current seven-party coalition and considering who could defect. The Likud (meaning “consolidation” in Hebrew) party of Prime Minister Netanyahu leads the alliance. It has represented Israel’s center-right since its establishment in the 1960s when founder Menachem Begin (1977-1983) merged his nationalist Herut party with the Liberal Party.
Facts & figures
An overview of the Knesset
The Knesset is Israel’s unicameral legislature, which passes all laws, elects the president and prime minister, approves the cabinet and supervises the work of the government. The body also can waive lawmaker immunity, remove the president, dissolve itself and the government or call new elections. The prime minister may also dissolve the Knesset.
The 120 members of the Knesset are elected nationwide through proportional representation for four-year terms. Often the legislature does not serve a full term and early elections are a frequent occurrence.
Lawmakers in Israel’s unicameral legislature were last elected on November 1, 2022 and sworn in on November 15, 2022. Their regular term extends until autumn 2026. Nevertheless, early elections are a real possibility, especially with the two-front war winding down and mixed support for the current prime minister.
Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition includes three smaller, extreme nationalist religious parties from the modern Jewish Orthodox movement, two of which are led by controversial figures – Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Public Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. It also includes two ultra-Orthodox religious parties that generally defer to Mr. Netanyahu on foreign and security policy on the condition that their constituents continue receiving unique government benefits that include exemption from military service and control over some aspects of religious life in Israel. Finally, a recent addition to the coalition is a small breakaway party from Likud led by Foreign Minister Gideon Saar (formerly a Netanyahu protege who became a rival before returning to cooperation with the prime minister).
Israeli politics has been moving to the right in recent decades, mainly in response to security concerns. But even so, the public favors the center, and the current coalition is undoubtedly the most-right wing in Israel’s history. Polls show that all of the parties in the ruling alliance would lose seats in the Knesset if early elections were held. One would assume that coalition members have all the incentive they need to avoid early elections. Nevertheless, there are at least three triggers that could produce that result.
What can force elections
The first trigger is general public opposition to the benefits enjoyed by the ultra-Orthodox. After the Supreme Court of Israel unanimously ruled on June 25, 2024, that the preexisting exemption from service was illegal, the Israel Defense Forces promptly moved to begin sending young ultra-Orthodox men draft notices. In response, the two ultra-Orthodox parties in the coalition demanded a new law be passed to enshrine the exemption into law. Several Likud leaders refuse to support any bills that make the exemption permanent. One of them, then Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, was fired primarily over this issue.
Many secular Israelis who have suffered heavy casualties in the ongoing wars back the dissenters. Some modern Orthodox support this position as well. Israel’s army needs additional soldiers, and the ultra-Orthodox are an untapped resource. One can imagine different scenarios: The ultra-Orthodox may compromise and agree to limited conscription, or the ultimate number of dissenters may be too small to threaten the coalition. However, neither scenario is yet clear, and the two ultra-Orthodox parties are needed to maintain the coalition’s parliamentary majority.
Facts & figures
Composition of the 25th Knesset
A second trigger involves widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s management of the wars, leading to intra-coalition dissent. From Israel’s perspective, the ceasefire with Lebanon was premised on the notion that the terrorist group Hezbollah could not infiltrate back into the border region and again constitute a threat to Israelis across the border in the Galilee region. Over 60,000 Israeli civilians had to evacuate from towns and villages in northern Israel due to regular rocket attacks from Hezbollah. If the terms of the ceasefire are not enforced and Israeli citizens do not return to their homes in sufficient numbers, then the government will come under pressure. Those coalition members who opposed the ceasefire might feel emboldened and depart in hopes of better results in new elections.
Likewise, if the government fails to free the nearly 100 Israeli civilians still held hostage by Hamas in Gaza, popular dissatisfaction might encourage coalition members, who wanted a hostage deal long ago, to leave. If enough do so, then the coalition will lose its narrow parliamentary majority.
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A final trigger concerns the revival of the contentious judicial reforms that the coalition initially proposed in January 2023. That provoked over nine months of highly charged, countrywide, weekly street protests by those in the political center and center-left. They saw the reforms as weakening the judiciary and casting aside checks and balances on the government. Indeed, in Israel’s unicameral parliamentary system, the judiciary is the primary check on executive power.
The strong popular reaction slowed the reform bills, and the effort was put aside following the Hamas attacks in October 2023. If, as now appears likely, this move to undercut the judiciary is renewed while a war is still underway in Gaza, then some members of the coalition may dissociate themselves from the widely unpopular government effort and seek approbation through new elections.
Scenarios
To determine whether these triggers are enough to lead to new balloting, it is worthwhile to consider the formidable political skills of Mr. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. In the 1990s, as a young leader of Likud, Israeli journalists had already dubbed him “the Magician” for his combination of oratorical skills, backroom deals and policy judgment. Mr. Netanyahu knows he will face public accountability for the government’s failure to anticipate and take preventative action against the surprise attacks of October 7, just as Prime Minister Golda Meir (1969-1973) did after similar failures in the 1973 war. Ms. Meir resigned from public life after that war.
Nevertheless, Mr. Netanyahu also faces ongoing criminal prosecutions on charges of taking bribes and other misconduct while in office; during the week of December 9, he became the first sitting Israeli prime minister to give testimony in court as a criminal defendant. He may not want to end his political career with those charges pending and instead may seek to face the public once again in fresh elections. To succeed in that, he will need a resounding victory in both Lebanon and Gaza and a return of the hostages. Therefore, it should be expected that Prime Minister Netanyahu works his magic to manage these triggers in a way that keeps his coalition together through the end of the war.
Most likely: Netanyahu holds the coalition together until the war ends in Gaza
Prime Minister Netanyahu should be able to pull this rabbit out of his hat. The latest polls show public appreciation for Israel’s operation in Lebanon; Mr. Netanyahu has regained popularity. He polls better than almost all other politicians, with only the center-right former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett slightly ahead of him. This favorable situation, however, could be a short-term respite lasting only a few months. The incoming American administration of President-elect Donald Trump and Israeli public opinion will both put pressure the government to wrap up the fighting and withdraw from Gaza in exchange for a release of hostages taken by Hamas. Meanwhile, the centrifugal forces of domestic politics will continue and intensify.
Quite likely: Netanyahu coalition dissolves after the Gaza war ends
Assuming that the Gaza war ends in the coming months, with hostages released as is reportedly being discussed, and further, that the ceasefire in Lebanon is extended beyond 60 days, then Israel will return fully to politics as usual. One or more of the three triggers outlined earlier could lead to a dissolution of the coalition. The societal tensions caused by the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption, poor government reaction to the Hamas attack and government efforts to reduce judicial independence would be resolved through new elections sometime in 2025.
Less likely: The Netanyahu coalition holds together until its term ends in October 2026
Netanyahu has held coalition governments together for full four-year terms in the past (2009-2013; 2015-2019). He and Golda Meir are the only two Israeli prime ministers to have done so. But the daunting array of domestic tensions, only held in check by the multifront war now winding down, will very likely prevent him from doing so again.
Concluding notes
There may be some fresh faces emerging into politics from the ranks of the young officers who fought and won this war, especially if elections are not forthcoming in the next six to eight months. The country (and broader region) is still recovering from the trauma of October 7, 2023, and the resulting conflicts. In the meantime, the Magician still holds the stage.
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