Japan modernizes its military to counter regional threats
Japan is boosting military readiness, increasing its defense budget and fortifying alliances in response to growing threats from China, North Korea and Russia.
In a nutshell
- Japan adopts a proactive defense posture with new missile purchases
- Investments in domestic tech and satellites to improve security resilience
- Japan reinforces U.S. ties for joint operations and nuclear deterrence
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Over the past decade, Japan’s security landscape has evolved significantly, prompting the government to transform its military to address various new threats. Japan is a neighbor to three of the world’s four greatest security challenges: Russia, North Korea and China. The threat level these nations pose to global security has only grown, justifiably alarming officials in Tokyo.
Japan has watched as China’s military continues to expand in size and capability. Beijing’s military and paramilitary forces are increasingly encroaching on the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands in Japan’s southwestern region, while making their presence felt in the South China Sea and around Taiwan. This has prompted Japan to shift its attention from the threat posed by Russia to its northern island of Hokkaido to the dangers from China to its southwestern islands.
North Korea has not halted its nuclear development or missile tests over Japan. Russia’s military has ramped up its activities alongside China in Northeast Asia, as well as with North Korean forces both within and outside Ukraine.
Japan’s changing defense priorities, policies and procurement
Threats to the peace and security of the Indo-Pacific, including to Taiwan, by bad actors like China, were one of the many issues highlighted during a recent high-level visit by Trump administration officials to Japan.
In light of growing threats, the Japanese government has undertaken a thorough review of its security documents and policies. This effort culminated in 2022 with the issuance of new guidance and three key security documents aimed at strengthening Japan’s defense and national security.
The goal is to bolster the country’s military readiness despite the many financial, constitutional and personnel challenges. Its alliance with the United States remains essential; however, Tokyo also seeks to shoulder greater regional security responsibilities, support its domestic defense industries and develop capabilities to deter potential threats.
The three documents shaping the new policy are the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy and the Defense Buildup Program. Together they collectively outline Japan’s strategic objectives, defense posture and plans for expanding its self-defense forces. For example, they explicitly name China as the “greatest strategic challenge.” They also mark a clear pivot to align more closely with the U.S. stance on China, moving Japan away from its traditional hedging role.
The National Defense Strategy emphasizes that Japan will shift from its policy of passive defense to proactive defense, aiming to deter threats before they arise. For decades, Japan’s defense policy was anchored in an exclusively defensive posture, avoiding capabilities that could be viewed as offensive or preemptive, given the emphasis on peace in Japan’s constitution. Article 9 of its constitution renounces war as a means of self-defense.
The new strategy states that one way to achieve a proactive posture is by acquiring counterstrike capabilities to respond to an attack. Japan will buy long-range missiles to effectively neutralize enemy capabilities.
Specifically, Tokyo plans to purchase 400 American Tomahawk cruise missiles – precision-strike weapons with a range of over 1,600 kilometers. The approximately $2.35 billion acquisition is scheduled between fiscal years 2025 and 2027 (the Japanese government’s financial year runs from April 1 to March 31). The Tomahawk purchase signals a clear break from the tradition of defending without response. Japan also plans to develop more domestically manufactured missiles, such as the Type 12 Surface-to-Ship Missile.
The country’s investment in missile capabilities is also closely tied to the threats posed by China and North Korea, both of which possess substantial missile arsenals.
These efforts support Japan’s pledge to double defense spending to 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027; for the 2024 fiscal year it was 1.6 percent of GDP. According to the Japanese government, all defense spending for the financial year 2025 is expected to amount to 9.9 trillion yen ($69.3 billion).
Advancements in multilateral cooperation
Japan is focused not only on bolstering its domestic security but also on broadening its defense partnerships with other countries. Tokyo signed a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) with the Philippines, another U.S. ally, which allows the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to train and operate in the Philippines and vice versa. The two countries, along with the U.S., recently conducted joint naval exercises as part of their efforts to increase their combined training.
Japan has also established RAAs with the United Kingdom and Australia. The UK was the first European country with which Japan signed an RAA. Following this, in April 2024, the UK announced plans to conduct regular joint military exercises in the Indo-Pacific region with the U.S. and Japan starting in 2025.
Japan and Australia have conducted numerous joint exercises since 2023. This partnership has expanded to include the U.S. through trilateral exercises in Guam. Japan also established the Global Combat Air Programme with Italy and the UK in 2022 – an initiative to develop a new stealth fighter jet by 2035. Tokyo is also willing to engage with non-traditional partners to strengthen security and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
Japan is focused not only on bolstering its domestic security but also on broadening its defense partnerships with other countries.
Last year, a defense treaty signed between Russia and North Korea sent a clear message to the world: Moscow’s interests are not confined to Europe but also extend into Asia. This cross-continental cooperation encouraged Japan to sign an Individually Tailored Partnership Programme with NATO in October 2024, allowing support in times of conflict. While this partnership is not equivalent to the mutual defense agreement among NATO members, it fosters stronger ties and creates greater opportunities for cooperation between Japan and America’s NATO allies.
Bilateral modernization in the Trump era
The U.S.-Japan alliance – Tokyo’s most vital strategic partnership – will deepen significantly in the long-term despite the current political uncertainty that has emerged since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January. The cooperation will extend well beyond arms acquisitions like the F-35 fighter jet and Tomahawk missiles, to include broader operational integration and strategic coordination.
In March, the two countries launched the Japan Joint Operations Command (JJOC). The JJOC will act as a permanent joint command for all operations between American and Japanese forces, focusing on joint contingency planning, real-time situational awareness and rapid decision-making. This reflects Japan’s shift from a traditionally siloed, defensive-only force to a unified, strategically mobile and alliance-ready force.
The U.S. and Japan have also intensified their talks on deterrence, focusing on America’s extended nuclear protection for Japan. These dialogues are now held regularly between high-level officials, including at the ministerial and secretariat levels. The conversations have progressed from mere reassurances to officials and now involve operational planning. This includes integrating nuclear and conventional systems, coordinating command-and-control and synchronizing missile defense strategies.
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While not explicitly stated in the outcomes of these dialogues, they have raised concerns and sparked interest in the possibility of U.S. nuclear sharing with Japan. That would not be unprecedented in the Pacific, as Washington is already sharing nuclear weapons technologies with Australia. These talks aim to address the growing anxiety over North Korea’s nuclear advancements and China’s expanding arsenal while reinforcing the credibility of the U.S. nuclear umbrella.
While there are concerns about North Korea’s developing nuclear weapons program, it is estimated that China already possesses as many as 600 nuclear weapons, with its stockpile projected to grow to as many as 1,000 warheads by 2030. The U.S. currently has roughly 3,700 nuclear warheads.
Scenarios
Most likely: Japan to meet defense spending target by 2027
Japan is highly likely to stay on course with its current plan and meet its defense spending target of 2 percent of GDP by 2027. Whether this will satisfy American officials who are calling on U.S. allies to substantially increase defense spending to as much as 5 percent of GDP is another question.
Many of Tokyo’s new defense interests will require either purchasing capabilities from the U.S. or investing in domestic industries. As the exchange rate between the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar continues to favor the dollar, Japan will struggle to purchase as many arms and defense technologies from America as it would like.
Japan relies on acquiring satellite imagery from private companies and foreign providers for defense and intelligence purposes. This includes commercial satellite imagery for real-time situational awareness, monitoring potential threats and supporting defense planning. To offset some of these costs, the country’s defense ministry is likely to invest more in domestic satellites that enable real-time space-based imaging. Establishing these capabilities will also be essential for accurate and precise targeting that aligns with Japan’s need for long-range missiles.
As the threat to Japan’s islands grows, it is only natural that it will also want to increase its capabilities. However, due to its shrinking population, Japanese forces face a critical challenge from reduced recruitment. Tokyo will likely continue investing in research and development for unmanned technologies (for land, air and sea) to address the emerging personnel gaps.
Less likely: Japan eases export laws to revitalize the defense sector
Instead of the government being the sole customer for many defense companies in the country, as is currently the case, there has been a concerted effort to boost Japan’s export capabilities for its domestically manufactured weapons and defense systems. Japan has steadily relaxed its stringent arms export controls over the years. For example, Mitsubishi Electric Corporation’s air surveillance radar sales to the Philippines in 2023 marked Japan’s first major defense export.
However, Japan is unlikely to ease its export laws to a level that would revitalize its defense industry and contribute to the growth of its economy. Officials remain acutely aware of the pacifist principles outlined in Japan’s constitution, as well as the current export regulations that limit the sale of arms to nations that may become embroiled in international conflicts. Japan will likely struggle to export its defense-related systems or arms at scale in a competitive global market against major arms exporters such as the U.S.
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