Latin America continues its rightward shift
Left-wing governments throughout the region are losing voter confidence after years of mismanagement.
In a nutshell
- Left-wing governments have broadly failed to deliver change
- Support from the Trump administration is boosting right-wing candidates
- A continent-wide, U.S.-aligned alliance will likely emerge
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Latin America is undergoing a political transformation. Seven countries in the region have recently or will soon hold elections: Bolivia, Honduras, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Colombia and Brazil, in chronological order. In the four elections that have already taken place, the right wing triumphed; while in the remaining three, according to polls, conservative presidential candidates are highly likely to win. Additionally, in Argentina, free-market champion President Javier Milei’s party won a majority of seats in the legislative elections.
This shift is namely due to three factors: the governance failures of the left-wing parties, new evidence of the close relationship between the left and organized crime, and the significant influence of the United States’ new National Security Strategy.
The Sao Paulo Forum, once a key coordinating platform for left-wing movements in the region, appears to be losing its influence as electoral momentum shifts away from its affiliated parties.
Election results in Bolivia, Honduras, Chile and Costa Rica
In Bolivia, the left had already suffered a crushing defeat in the first round of presidential elections before the second round was held on October 19, 2025, with a runoff between two right-wing candidates. Rodrigo Paz Pereira emerged victorious with 55 percent of the vote. In the legislative elections, the center-right won 145 seats, while the left won only 11. Strikingly, the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS), to which former Bolivian President Evo Morales belonged, won only two seats.
In Honduras, voters went to the polls on November 30, 2025, where right-wing candidate Nasry Asfura secured 40.3 percent, narrowly ahead of centrist Salvador Nasralla at 39.6 percent. The left-wing and Sao Paulo Forum candidate, Rixi Moncada, remained below 20 percent. In the parliamentary contest, the center-right captured 90 seats, compared with 35 for the left.
In Chile, the presidential runoff on December 14, 2025, resulted in a decisive victory for right-wing candidate Jose Antonio Kast, who received 58.2 percent of the vote, against 41.8 percent for Communist Party and Sao Paulo Forum candidate Jeannette Jara. In parallel legislative results, the center-right secured 90 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, while the left and the Greens took 64.
In Costa Rica, the February 1, 2026 election produced a first-round victory for right-wing candidate Laura Fernandez with 48.6 percent of the vote. Runner-up Alvaro Ramos Chaves, with 33.6 percent, also belongs to the center-right. The unicameral assembly reflected this balance, with the center-right holding 48 seats and the left just nine.
In these four countries, the right ran divided, which means that the governing parties do not have an absolute majority, but alliances between the various right-wing parties will likely allow them to pass laws on matters of national interest.
Elections in Peru, Colombia and Brazil
In Peru, voters cast ballots on April 12, 2026, for multiple levels of government at once: the presidency, upper and lower house and Andean Parliament. According to polls, only six of the 36 presidential candidates were known by more than 50 percent of the population. The final count remains unresolved, with definitive confirmation delayed until mid-May due to the review of more than 15,000 challenged ballots. With 93 percent counted, right-wing Keiko Fujimori leads the presidential race, while a tight race between left-wing Roberto Sanchez and right-wing Rafael Lopez Aliaga will determine who advances with her to the runoff.
In Colombia, divisions within the right persist, yet the parliamentary elections and sectoral primaries held on March 8 make one fact clear: The left’s hold on power is threatened. The first round of the presidential election will take place on May 31, 2026, and according to the average of several pollsters, the runoff will be between the right-wing outsider, Abelardo de la Espriella, and the leftist candidate Ivan Cepeda, supported by the Sao Paulo Forum.
Given that the first round of Brazil’s presidential election will be held on October 2, 2026, it is too early to predict a victor. According to a recent study by consulting firm Atlas Intel, voters are split between the current leftist president, Lula da Silva (46.2 percent), founder of the Sao Paulo Forum, and Flavio Bolsonaro (46.3 percent), son of the right-wing former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently in prison.
The “Trump effect” on Latin American elections
There are two additional factors that will influence the upcoming elections in Latin America. The first is the information that will come to light about the shady dealings between the head of the Cartel of the Suns, Nicolas Maduro and leftist leaders in the region. The second is the open endorsement of the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump for several candidates in the region.
One of the founders of the Cartel of the Suns, former Venezuelan General Hugo Carvajal, alias “El Pollo,” pleaded guilty on June 25, 2025, to four federal crimes in the U.S., including drug trafficking, narco-terrorism and possession of firearms. The former general is now cooperating with American authorities in the hope of obtaining a reduced sentence.
Mr. Carvajal agreed to reveal information about the illegal financing that the Venezuelan regime provided to left-wing political leaders and movements in several countries. In a written statement, he listed recipients of funds sent from Caracas, including Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Brazilian President Lula da Silva. The revelations that will come to light during Mr. Maduro’s trial will likely affect the presidential aspirations of the Colombian candidate Ivan Cepeda and of Brazilian President Lula.
In the recent Honduran elections, President Trump not only endorsed the winning candidate, Nasry Asfura, but also discredited his opponents. “I hope the people of Honduras vote for Freedom and Democracy, and elect Tito (Nasry) Asfura, President!” President Trump said on Truth Social. His support for right-wing candidates will likely be reflected in the upcoming Latin American elections.
Trump’s alliances with the Latin American right wing
The White House’s support for right-wing candidates in the region is part of the objectives of the new U.S. National Security Strategy, as President Trump proposes, among other goals, to combat drug trafficking and reduce the influence of extra-continental powers such as Russia, China and Iran in Latin America.
In March 2026, Mr. Trump hosted the “Shield of the Americas” summit in Florida, bringing together more than a dozen Latin American leaders to launch a security-focused coalition aimed at combating cartels, curbing migration and reinforcing U.S. influence in the region. The Trump administration has made it a priority to assert dominance over the Western Hemisphere, where Beijing has long built influence through sub loans and expansive trade.
Following the inauguration of a major Chinese-built port in Peru in 2024, Washington raised concerns about potential security risks and the erosion of national sovereignty, and has since explored a plan worth roughly $1.5 billion to support the construction of a nearby naval base.
More by Latin American affairs expert Alejandro Peña Esclusa
- Venezuela’s Delcy Rodriguez under the tutelage of the U.S.
- China tightening its grip on Latin America
- Venezuela key in Trump’s national security strategy
In Argentina, the government of President Milei has taken steps to limit Chinese involvement in strategic sectors, including halting a telescope project, maintaining a freeze on a proposed Beijing-backed nuclear power plant valued at $8 billion and excluding a Chinese firm from a dredging contract.
Ties to the U.S. also suit Latin American interests because Mr. Trump promises to promote large investments in the region, including Project Vault, an initiative to stockpile critical minerals led by America’s Export-Import Bank, which approved direct loans of up to $10 billion, more than double the largest financing in the bank’s history. In the case of Venezuela, Mr. Trump assured oil companies of “total safety, total security” to encourage a $100 billion investment in the nation’s infrastructure following the capture of Mr. Maduro.
Scenarios
Most likely: The right wins in Peru, Colombia and Brazil
The shift to the right, which began with the Bolivian elections in October 2025, continues in the rest of the elections to be held this year. Institutions and business leaders in Peru, Colombia and Brazil decide to align themselves with the U.S., defeat the cartels, reduce dependence on China and take advantage of new American investments resulting from the political change.
Meanwhile, Cuba undergoes a change of its governance system due to the economic stranglehold on the island resulting from the suspension of Venezuelan oil shipments following Mr. Maduro’s capture.
A U.S. endorsement will likely not be necessary for a victory of the right in Peru. However, Mr. Trump may well decide to endorse both the Colombian right-wing candidate who wins the first round of the presidential election on May 31 and Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil.
Consequently, by the end of this year, Latin America could be almost uniformly right wing, with the exceptions of Mexico and Uruguay, where socialist governments still have a few years left in power.
The alliances between Latin American countries and the U.S. will be strengthened, both to combat organized crime and drug trafficking, and to increase U.S. investment in the region. This would fulfill the aspirations of the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, as expressed in the U.S. National Security Strategy memorandum.
Less likely: Lula manages to maintain control of Brazil
The right wing triumphs in Peru and Colombia, but Lula manages to win reelection. The left maintains control of Brazil but given the new regional environment, Lula decides to negotiate with the White House, following the model of interim President Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela.
As a result, an economic transition begins in Brazil, with fewer investments from China and more from the U.S., although projects already underway, such as the Central Bio-oceanic Railway Corridor, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, are completed.
Lula agrees to stop promoting an alternative currency to the dollar and to collaborate in the fight against drug trafficking. These commitments undermine his left-wing base and weaken his international leadership, thus ending the Lula era in Brazil.
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