Accessing Africa’s critical raw materials
The Lobito Corridor megaproject could reshape global critical mineral supply chains by connecting Africa’s mineral-rich regions to international markets.
In a nutshell
- A new railway project could connect DRC with Angola’s copper belt
- The U.S. and the EU are backing the initiative
- The partnership aims to counteract Chinese influence in the region
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Critical minerals like cobalt, lithium and copper are vital for the global economy and the defense industry. Recognizing their importance, major and middle powers are striving to secure reliable access for themselves. China in particular has grown its influence in these markets, controlling a significant portion of the world’s mining operations and refining capacities.
To counteract this dominance, African initiatives like the Lobito Atlantic Railway are being developed with backing from the United States and the European Union. These collaborations aim to enhance access to critical minerals and reduce reliance on Chinese-controlled supply chains.
Reviving the Benguela Railway
The Lobito Corridor revives the Benguela Railway, which was completed in 1928. It connected the Angolese city of Lobito, then the most important port on the Western coast of Africa, to Luau on the border of Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The project was launched and financed by Sir Robert Williams, a Scottish mining engineer with interests in Katanga and Northern Rhodesia.
For more than three decades, the Benguela railway was the cheapest and fastest way to export minerals from DRC and Zambia. However, the railway system was severely damaged during the post-independence civil war that broke out in 1975. Repairs began in 2006, following an agreement with China under the oil-for-infrastructure lending model, and were completed in 2014.
In 2022, during the U.S.-Africa Leaders’ Summit, the U.S., DRC and Zambia announced a memorandum of understanding on electric vehicle battery value chains. The Lobito Atlantic Railway consortium, comprising the Portuguese construction group Mota-Engil, the Belgian railroad operator Vecturis and the French commodities supplier Trafigura, was awarded a 30-year concession to operate the Benguela railway and its mineral terminal.
One year later, during the G20 Summit in New Delhi, President Biden announced a partnership between the U.S. and EU to develop the Lobito Corridor under the Partnership for Global Infrastructure (PGI). The project’s goal is to establish a 1,289-kilometer railway that connects mining sites in DRC and Zambia’s copper belt to the Angolan port of Lobito, facilitating access to global markets.
The PGI’s priority is to develop economic corridors through partnerships and integrated investments, boosting regional growth and increasing global connectivity. The initiative aims to counter the geopolitical and geoeconomic influence exercised by China through the Belt and Road Initiative. Besides the Lobito Corridor, the PGI has also launched an ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor.
When completed, the Lobito Corridor is expected to increase trade and mobility by reducing average transport time and costs in a region where infrastructure deficits and logistical challenges remain obstacles to growth. The initiative may have a significant impact across other sectors by creating jobs and attracting investments in agriculture, services and digital connectivity.
Competing for Africa’s minerals
Africa is home to approximately 30 percent of the world’s mineral reserves and plays a key role as a supplier of critical minerals to the global economy. Demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to keep increasing in coming decades. The city of Kolwezi in DRC is home to one of the world’s largest copper and cobalt reserves.
Thanks to abundant resources, lower production costs, less environmental regulation and a long-term strategy to develop and secure access to strategic routes, China secured a dominant position in the production and supply chains. This provides Beijing with significant leverage over its competitors. Some 60 percent of EU critical raw material imports come from China. For rare earth elements, the figure is 98 percent.
The U.S. has prioritized reducing reliance on China, as demonstrated by initiatives like the Energy Resource Governance Initiative, launched in 2019. The plan aims to engage resource-rich countries in promoting “responsible energy minerals governance.” This objective is also mentioned in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which not only seeks to boost domestic mining production but also emphasizes near-shoring supply chains to strengthen regional partnerships.
American policy on this issue has been consistent across administrations since 2016. Moreover, the Lobito Corridor is a strong indicator of U.S. involvement in Africa. Over the past 18 months, investments in the region have reached $3 billion and have been supported by substantial diplomatic efforts, highlighted by President Biden’s historic visit to Angola in December – the first by a sitting U.S. president.
The Minerals Security Partnership, also a U.S.- and EU-backed initiative in Africa with 12 other countries, in turn, is an attempt to coordinate investments in access to critical raw materials supply lines through a multilateral mechanism. The agreement will finance the Kabanga Nickel Project in Tanzania, among other initiatives.
In an attempt to make up for lost time, the U.S. and EU are trying to increase their presence in a continent where China has heavily invested over the past two decades. Although excessive debt, China’s economic slowdown and political changes across the continent present strategic opportunities for the EU and Washington, the concentration of critical raw materials in areas affected by chronic instability poses significant risks to both governments and investors.
An alternative model to China’s investment approach
The primary distinction between Beijing’s approach and initiatives like the Lobito Corridor lies in their scope and financing model. Infrastructure investments under the Lobito Corridor aim to create a “trickle-down” effect, fostering growth in interconnected sectors such as agriculture, digital communications and health.
These efforts are further supported by measures designed to facilitate trade. The partnership includes the EU, the U.S., third countries like South Korea (which hosted the first Korea-Africa Summit in 2024), financial institutions like the African Development Bank Group and the Africa Finance Corporation, as well as the private sector. Additionally, the Lobito Corridor project emphasizes sub-regional integration by promoting economic cooperation and regulatory harmonization.
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Recently, Tanzania officially joined the project, which means that, once completed, the railway system will connect the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. At the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing, a memorandum of understanding was announced for the concession of the Tanzania-Zambia railway (TAZARA), connecting Zambia’s copper belt to the Indian Ocean through the Port of Dar-es-Salaam.
This demonstrates that competition between the U.S. and China is not always mutually exclusive but can also be complementary, potentially benefiting African nations. Moreover, the recent crisis in Mozambique shows the need for alternative export routes during periods of unrest.
Scenarios
The Lobito Corridor project will take time to be implemented. Its success depends on a combination of factors, including security, regional integration and the development of maritime infrastructure in the Southern Atlantic.
Most likely: The Lobito Corridor improves regional integration, partially diminishes dependence on China by 2029
The Lobito Corridor project may accelerate growth in the region and integrate participating countries into global value chains in the medium term (the rail extension through Zambia is expected to be completed by 2029). However, its impact on reducing U.S. and EU dependency on China for critical raw materials is expected to be limited.
China controls a significant share of mining production in the region. In DRC, 80 percent of the copper mines are Chinese-owned, and the Zambian government recently announced that Beijing will invest up to $5 billion in the country’s copper industry over the next seven years.
Despite major connectivity initiatives like the Lobito Corridor, the U.S. does not have the economic or political bandwidth to compete with China when it comes to the control over production of critical raw materials. Furthermore, African countries seem increasingly committed to restricting raw commodities exports, as they plan to increase mineral processing. Finally, the development of transport and communication routes in the Southern Atlantic is a necessary condition for the near-shoring of value chains through the westward shift of export routes, as envisaged by the U.S. and EU.
Less likely: The Lobito Corridor’s completion is jeopardized by regional instability and governance issues
The completion of the Lobito Corridor could be compromised by lack of transparency and misallocation of funds, and/or political unrest in the region.
Nevertheless, a combination of factors makes this unlikely. Washington’s commitment to the project is expected to continue under the second Trump administration. The initiative also involves private actors with experience in developing infrastructures in Angola and across Africa, like Mota-Engil.
While corruption and judicial opacity increase the risk of the project not being completed, widespread corruption akin to that seen during the 2000-2013 period has become much less likely. Reforms in the legal and business environment, along with a young, urban and more informed population, have heightened the political costs of blatant corruption in Angola.
Social disruption, political uncertainty and sporadic unrest, which is likely to occur until 2029 given the current levels of discontent among local populations, could lead to delays, but will likely not derail the project. Armed conflict or major political unrest in DRC or Angola, however, could seriously compromise the completion and viability of the Corridor.
While there are important differences between the two countries, the current situation in Mozambique may be a cautionary tale for Angola. Moreover, the political and security outlook in DRC will likely remain unstable for the next decade, including in the Katanga region. While this second scenario remains less likely, the recent advances of the M23 in Eastern Congo, and the escalation of tensions between Kigali and Kinshasa, have increased the risks of a regional war that would adversely affect the Lobito Corridor.
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