Morocco’s firmer position in Western Sahara
France’s new stance on the Western Sahara dispute signals growing international support for Morocco, complicating Algeria’s long-standing position.
In a nutshell
- France has declared support for Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara
- Diplomatic shifts challenge Algeria’s backing of the Polisario Front
- Increased Moroccan control raises questions about UN referendum plans
In a July letter celebrating the 25th anniversary of Moroccan King Mohammed VI’s coronation, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a change in France’s policy regarding the long-running Western Sahara dispute, declaring that “the present and future of Western Sahara lie within the framework of Moroccan sovereignty.” That followed similar moves by several other countries – including the United States and Spain – to endorse a 2007 proposal by Morocco to allow the territory limited self-governance. It now appears this is the only realistic solution to a conflict that has been grinding on since 1975.
The diplomatic reaction from Algeria included the withdrawal of its ambassador from France. Nevertheless, the United Nations-backed plan of holding a referendum for the people of Western Sahara to choose between independence or integration with Morocco is now extremely remote. Morocco has effective control over three-quarters of Western Sahara’s territory, as well as increasing regional and international leverage. The Polisario Front – a Sahrawi nationalist liberation movement seeking to establish an independent state for the Sahrawi people – has grown increasingly isolated.
Africa’s last colony
Those opposing Morocco’s territorial claims consider Western Sahara to be the last colony in Africa, and the Polisario Front the sole legitimate representative of the Sahrawi people. The region is a vast stretch of mostly desert land bordering the north Atlantic, and is home to approximately 630,000 people. After the Berlin Conference of 1884-1885, at which the imperial powers of the day met to agree on a policy for carving up Africa into colonial possessions, it fell under Spanish control. Named Spanish Sahara until 1958, it was then the Province of the Sahara until 1976.
Morocco claimed the territory one year after becoming independent in 1957. Amid strong decolonization pressures, Spain withdrew from the territory in 1976 following the Green March, a massive protest organized by the Moroccan government, during which 350,0000 Moroccans marched into Western Sahara. Citing two 16th-century treaties signed with Spain and Portugal, Morocco said the area was its sovereign territory.
Then the story gets more complicated. After Spain’s withdrawal, Western Sahara – defined by the UN as a “non-self-governing territory” – fell into limbo. Conflict arose between the Polisario Front, a political and armed movement created in 1973 that claims to represent the Sahrawi people and their right to self-determination, and Morocco, for whom the “Moroccaness” of Western Sahara is a non-negotiable principle. While Morocco controls most of the territory, the Polisario Front rules over the self-declared Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, with the two territories separated by the 2,700 kilometer-long Western Sahara Wall, a sand and earth berm up to 10 feet high lined with barbed wire and minefields. It is said to be the largest minefield in the world.
Facts & figures
Morocco and Western Sahara
In 1991, the UN brokered a ceasefire and presented a settlement plan which laid the provisions for a referendum on self-determination. However, despite the establishment of a UN Mission (MINURSO) tasked with monitoring the ceasefire and organizing the referendum, the situation remained stalemated.
Then, in 2007, Morocco advanced an autonomy proposal, presenting it as “the only basis for a just and lasting solution.” Under the proposal, which was rejected by the Polisario Front, Western Sahara would have its own government, parliament and judiciary, but the territory would be under Moroccan sovereignty.
The situation deteriorated after 2020: In November, the ceasefire was broken as tensions between the two sides escalated. That same month, the United States announced that it would recognize Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, initiating a slow but steady chain reaction of diplomatic shifts in favor of Rabat.
The conflict’s effect on the regional balance
From a regional perspective, the Western Sahara issue has been a driver of tensions between Morocco and Algeria. This rivalry has confronted actors like Spain and France, former colonial masters, with difficult choices.
Algeria has been a key supporter of the Polisario Front and of its independence claims, having recognized the Sahrawi Arab Republic in 1976. Morocco has been a supporter of the self-determination claims of the Kabyle people, a Berber ethnic group indigenous to Kabylia in the north of Algeria. Relations between Morocco and Algeria have always been rocky, as evidenced by the land border between the two countries remaining closed since 1994.
Tensions between Rabat and Algiers have increased since 2021, when Algiers announced it was cutting diplomatic ties (and gas supplies) to its neighbor. Algeria, which holds Africa’s second-largest natural gas reserves, has become an important supplier for European countries like Spain, Germany and Italy, especially after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Last year Algeria refused to renew the contract for the Maghreb-Europe pipeline, which supplied Spain with Algerian gas via Morocco. All the same, the economically stagnant Algeria is unlikely to drastically reduce its gas exports to Europe, which bring in critical revenue.
Morocco’s non-negotiable posture on Western Sahara, apart from being a key issue of sovereignty for Rabat, must also be understood in light of geoeconomic factors. The part of Western Sahara under Moroccan control has reserves of phosphate rock, a non-renewable resource and a key component for synthetic fertilizers.
Western Sahara’s fisheries are also a source of contention. An EU-Morocco fisheries deal remains out of reach since the European Court of Justice determined that the agreement could not be applied there without the consent of the Sahrawi people.
Shifting policies
Increasing diplomatic efforts to legitimize Rabat’s claims over Western Sahara have been accompanied by effective administration of the territory, as reflected in the way it has invested in the contested region under the New Development Model for the Southern Provinces. Now, after two decades of impasse, changes in the positioning of actors like France seem to confirm Morocco’s victory in the dispute.
An important first step came in 2017 when Morocco rejoined the African Union after 33 years of absence. The country left the African Union’s precursor, the Organisation of African Unity, in 1984 after the group recognized the Sahrawi Republic. Since rejoining, Morocco has increased its leverage within the continental body, and several African countries have changed their official stances on the issue of Western Sahara.
A second decisive moment was when, under the Abraham Accords proposed by the Trump administration, Washington recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara.
The status quo is also being challenged within the UN. After it successfully mediated the 1991 ceasefire, Western Sahara may become yet another defeat for the organization. France became the second Security Council country, after the U.S., to endorse Morocco’s claims, while China and Russia have maintained more cautious positions.
That said, Beijing did not invite the Sahrawi Republic to the 2024 China-Africa Summit, suggesting that China is not willing to antagonize Rabat on the issue. Moscow’s stance of “positive neutrality” is compromised by its goals in Ukraine, which may prevent Russia from blocking an official change in the overall position of the Security Council.
The Western Sahara conflict also exposes the divide between the European Union’s official policy and the national interests of its member states. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced his country’s support for Morocco’s autonomy proposal in 2022. The move was considered a vital step toward easing tensions between Madrid and Rabat after the May 2021 diplomatic crisis, which saw nearly 8,000 people attempt to cross Morocco’s border fence into Ceuta, a Spanish territory on the northern coast of Africa. At the time, Moroccan authorities had loosened border controls after Spain received the leader of the Polisario, who was seeking medical treatment.
The subsequent rapprochement came with a price and risks: Algiers suspended trade relations with Spain and Prime Minister Sanchez’s coalition partner, Unidas Podemos, strongly opposed the move. Still, EU diplomatic and trade relations with Morocco have since significantly improved.
Scenarios
Movements in countries’ positioning on the Western Sahara issue suggest a prevalence of pragmatism, as Morocco gains traction as a key regional actor. How might the situation continue to unfold?
More likely: Consolidated control
Under a first, most likely scenario, this succession of diplomatic victories will legitimize Morocco’s effective control over the Western Sahara territory. No official changes are expected at the UN level in the short to medium term, especially considering that until August 2025 Algeria has a seat on the Security Council as a non-permanent member. However, more countries are expected to formally change their positioning in favor of Rabat. The likelihood of this scenario derives from Morocco being seen as a reliable ally in the context of rising instability in the neighboring Sahel region.
Moreover, Morocco is increasing investment in Western Sahara within a larger and more ambitious regional strategy. One example of this is the Dakhla Atlantic Port megaproject, which aims to accelerate economic integration and facilitate trade with the landlocked Sahel countries – Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad.
This scenario is also dependent on Rabat’s ability to engage the Polisario in a negotiated solution toward autonomy, while still denying them full self-determination.
Less likely: Conflict reignites
Under a second, less likely, scenario, Morocco’s succession of diplomatic victories triggers regional tensions and reignites the armed conflict between Rabat and the Polisario. This scenario could result from a combination of two factors. First, the Polisario’s perception that the diplomatic route is no longer viable could encourage the movement, or some of its factions, to intensify the armed struggle. Second, this scenario would become more likely in the event of effective support being provided to the Polisario’s self-determination claims by a key regional actor, like Algeria or Tunisia.
But while Algeria seems committed to countering Morocco’s rising influence – through its close relations with Moscow, Tehran, and its partners in Africa and Latin America – a direct military confrontation with Morocco over Western Sahara seems less likely at this moment. Tensions, however, are inevitable in the short to medium term, especially concerning the status of the buffer zone and the refugee camps in Algerian territory which are under the rule of the Polisario.
For industry-specific scenarios and bespoke geopolitical intelligence, contact us and we will provide you with more information about our advisory services.
Sign up for our newsletter
Receive insights from our experts every week in your inbox.
