Nordic-Baltic-B9 cooperation fills Europe’s security gap
The Russian war on Ukraine is sparking Nordic-Baltic-B9 ties that strengthen security, arms cooperation and regional industrial renewal.
In a nutshell
- The Nordic-Baltic Eight bolsters NATO’s northern flank
- The B9 is expanding with the Nordics to reinforce support for Ukraine
- Regional deals thrive where broader EU projects stall
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Russia’s war against Ukraine is catalyzing a transformation of Europe that extends well beyond its security architecture. The shift recalls the 1980s, when visions of a “Europe of Regions” were taking shape. In the early 1990s, the European Community was still open to decentralization, autonomy and cross-border cooperation. As Brussels developed an ever-stronger preference for centralization, a set of negative consequences followed, ranging from gridlock in decision-making to the stifling of innovation and dynamism.
The main driver of the current pattern of renewed regionalization is the differing perceptions of the threat from Russia. While countries distant from the war tend to adopt a more relaxed attitude, those closer feel a strong sense of urgency. Consequently, the center of gravity in European security is shifting toward the east. Given the growing emphasis on military-industrial capabilities, there will be an increase in new regional collaborations and networking that extend beyond immediate security needs.
From centralization to a Europe of regions
One of the most important developments is the deepening integration of the three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) with the five Nordic states (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden). Before Finland and Sweden joined NATO, this collaboration would have been unthinkable. Today it defines security on NATO’s northern flank. Referred to as the Nordic-Baltic Eight, this alliance also strengthens support for Ukraine.
On NATO’s eastern flank, frontline states had already formed an even broader cluster. Poland and Romania have a long history of shared security, rooted in a 1921 mutual defense pact. In November 2015, following the Russian invasion of Crimea, their then-presidents Andrzej Duda and Klaus Iohannis used a meeting in Bucharest to launch the Bucharest Nine (B9) initiative. The new grouping merged the four Visegrad states – the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia – with Bulgaria and Romania to the south and the three Baltic states to the north.
The importance of the B9 came into focus on March 3, 2026, when Poland and Romania honored their strategic friendship and long shared history with a celebration of the annual Poland-Romania Solidarity Day. At a press conference in Warsaw on March 5, the two current presidents, Karol Nawrocki and Nicusor Dan, suggested inviting the Nordic countries to join the B9. That invitation was well received. On May 13, Bucharest hosted the B9 and Nordic Allies Summit, which NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also attended.
The Nordic-Baltic-B9 alliance takes shape
Closer cooperation between the Nordic countries and the B9 is a logical response to current pressures. One reason is the intensifying Russian threats, which call for coordinated policies in support of Ukraine and in defense against Russian hybrid operations. Another is the growing sense of American abandonment of Europe, which erodes the transatlantic link and emboldens the Kremlin. A third is the European Union’s inability to act decisively in support of Ukraine, with disappointments ranging from the handling of frozen Russian assets to constant bickering over packages of sanctions against Russia.
Strengthening the Franco-German alliance appears to be a sensible move to counter American disengagement, but historical rivalries have hindered such ambitions. A prime example of this tension is the initiative started in 2017 to create a sixth-generation combat aircraft for Europe. With a projected budget of 100 billion euros, the Future Combat Air System aimed to replace the French Rafale and the German Eurofighter. Ongoing conflicts between Dassault and Airbus have cast significant doubt over the project’s success.
French President Emmanuel Macron has been ambivalent about supporting Ukraine. While he has been a strong advocate for greater European autonomy from the U.S., he has also been doggedly insistent that weapons for Ukraine be purchased in Europe. Despite much talk about donating old Mirage fighter jets, only six have been delivered to date.
It is also concerning that while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has emerged as a strong voice in support of Ukraine, his actions have often fallen short of his rhetoric. A case in point is the German Taurus cruise missile, which could potentially allow Ukraine to strike the Kerch Bridge and ultimately bring an end to Russia’s occupation of Crimea. While Germany has offered considerable support, including crucial air defense systems, it has yet to deliver any Taurus missiles.
This is where tighter collaboration between the Nordics and the B9 may provide renewed impetus, both in support for Ukraine and in reinvigorating European industrial capabilities. The new format’s role will not be to replace NATO but to form a coalition of like-minded countries willing to go the extra mile within the alliance. It is significant that Poland and Sweden have recently concluded a major deal for three ultra-silent Swedish A26 submarines, purpose-built for operations in the brackish waters of the Baltic Sea. Saab has also signed a strategic collaboration agreement with the Polish state defense group PGZ, allowing PGZ to be integrated into Saab’s supply chain.
The outcome of Hungary’s recent election provides added reason for optimism about this process. While Hungary was ruled by Viktor Orban’s Fidesz government, the EU was gridlocked on all matters relating to Russia and Ukraine. With Peter Magyar’s decisive victory and the rise of his Tisza party, the situation has changed. The scope for Russian influence has been curtailed, Visegrad cooperation has gained new traction and Nordic governments that have been critical of Hungary are taking a more positive stance.
Regional alliances remake European security
Poland stands at the forefront of the shift toward a new geopolitical map for Europe, for good reason. In addition to its size and strategic location, it has embarked on massive rearmament, and by purchasing weapons from South Korea, it has defied French insistence that weapons be sourced in Europe. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has been outspoken about relations between Russia and the administration of United States President Donald Trump, describing a series of U.S. and allied moves as looking like “Putin’s dream plan.”
It is also essential to highlight the Lublin Triangle initiative, which was established in July 2020. Drawing inspiration from the historic 1569 Union of Lublin that formed the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the foreign ministers of Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine – Linas Linkevicius, Jacek Czaputowicz and Dmytro Kuleba – came together in the Polish city to issue a joint declaration. This declaration emphasizes the importance of deepening military, cultural, economic and political cooperation, while also underscoring support for Ukraine’s move toward NATO integration. During a foreign ministers’ meeting held in Lublin on July 16, 2025 to mark the format’s fifth anniversary, the three countries reaffirmed their commitment to these goals.
The vision presented in Lublin envisions a Europe increasingly defined by collaborating regions rather than centralized powers. In this context, it is noteworthy that the Nordic countries are eager to strengthen ties with Canada. In light of American threats against Greenland, Copenhagen has found a reliable ally in Ottawa. Capitalizing on the rift in American-Canadian relations, Sweden has begun collaborating on arms production, including agreements for the Saab Erieye Airborne Early Warning and Control System and the exploration of joint production possibilities for the JAS Gripen fighter jet in Canada.
During the recent European Political Community meeting in Yerevan, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney characterized Canada as the “most European of non-European countries,” a sentiment echoed by President Zelenskiy, who remarked that the summit showcased the shared values between Canada and the European community.
It is significant that while the project for a common European fighter jet is floundering and deliveries of older American F-16 and French Mirage jets have been plagued by frustrating delays and, in some cases, sheer obfuscation, Sweden has stepped up with its JAS Gripen fighter. Built to fight the Russian air force in terrain like Ukraine, it had long been at the top of the Ukrainian wish list.
At a press conference on May 28 at an airbase in Uppsala, just north of Stockholm, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson hosted President Zelenskiy for an important announcement. Ukraine will now be allowed to purchase 20 JAS Gripen fighter jets of the latest E/F version, for delivery before 2030. In the meantime, Sweden will donate 16 older C/D-series aircraft that are currently in operation with the Swedish air force. The announcement was made against a tightly choreographed backdrop featuring two fighters from each model.
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Given that Sweden has already donated a Saab Erieye aircraft, the boost to the Ukrainian air force will be substantial. Russian aircraft will be deterred from approaching close enough to launch the glide bombs that have caused so much damage. In the longer term, the two sides continue to discuss a larger package that could eventually reach up to 150 JAS Gripen aircraft, with possible assembly arrangements involving Canada or Ukraine still under consideration.
In a sign that the emphasis on regional development extends beyond military security needs, the Nordic countries have also launched an industry-led alliance to advance competitiveness and economic resilience across the region, faster than is currently possible in the wider European context. Called “Nordic Compass – The Nordic Round Table for Industry,” the initiative brings together companies and foundations from the Nordic countries. Chaired by former Finnish prime minister Jyrki Katainen, the alliance includes major players such as Ericsson, Nokia, Saab, Nordea, Orsted and the Novo Nordisk Foundation. In its first year, Nordic Compass will focus on capital markets, defense, deep tech and energy.
Scenarios
Most likely: B9-Nordic cooperation boosts European security and dynamism
Closer collaboration between the B9 and the Nordics has the combined effect of enhancing military security and of overcoming the centralization and overregulation that has stymied European innovation and economic growth. In both cases, integration of Ukraine is key. As European governments and defense contractors realize that Ukraine is now morphing from supplicant to mentor, those that have developed the closest bonds and built the strongest trust will have an obvious edge.
As the sense of urgency to meet military-industrial needs intensifies, it will also benefit other sectors, and regional drives to increase dynamism, such as the Nordic Compass, will become increasingly important. Together with Ukraine, the B9 and Nordic allies set a new agenda for Europe.
Less likely: Regionalism triggers fracture and gridlock
A move toward a Europe of regions triggers counterreactions that cause NATO to fracture and the EU to become even more gridlocked. Countries keen to centralize power and expand the EU budget may find common ground with those advocating reduced support for Ukraine and greater emphasis on dialogue with Russia. As these tensions play out against a backdrop of transatlantic frictions, Moscow would likely see opportunities to exploit divisions through its established influence tactics.
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