The Nordic-Baltic Eight: A new security actor?
Northern European countries are strengthening their defense ties in response to the Russian threat.
In a nutshell
- The Nordic-Baltic Eight forms a united front against Russian threats
- These countries express frustration over the EU’s slow response to the crisis
- Finland and Sweden joining NATO marks a shift in regional security
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Russia’s war against Ukraine has caused a fundamental reorientation of the European security order. While some countries have come out as ardent supporters of Ukraine, others have opted to maintain diplomatic ties with Russia and some have chosen a neutral stance. Tensions arising from these differences in opinion have undermined the European Union’s standing.
Russia has long seen Europe as a fragmented entity lacking real influence, preferring instead to engage solely with the United States as a valued partner. The Trump administration has added a sense of urgency to this dynamic. Emboldened by its growing rapport with Washington, the Russian regime now deliberately provokes Europe through inflammatory rhetoric and military posturing.
Perceptive observers have long warned that if Ukraine is allowed to fall, Europe will be forced to fight Russia on its own soil. Those concerns have now been exacerbated by the realization that if the worst really does happen, Europe may have to fight this war without support from the U.S. In response, while Brussels has made bold statements about support packages, these efforts often lack backing from member states. Meanwhile, countries in the north of Europe have responded with great resolve.
Nordic-Baltic Eight: A united front against Russia
The EU’s inability to deliver on its verbal commitments of support for Ukraine has fostered an unprecedented sense of community between the five Nordic (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden) and three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). Just a few years ago, the notion of a Nordic defense union was considered an unattainable dream. Today, past frictions between the three Scandinavian countries (Denmark, Norway and Sweden) have been set aside, and there is a strong feeling of solidarity with their Baltic neighbors.
What may be emerging here is a regional bloc of countries firmly united in their support for Ukraine and in their conviction that a decisive defeat for Russia is the only way in which the war may be ended. The informal alignment known as the “Nordic-Baltic Eight” has come together to express a shared concern over the slow response from Brussels in supporting Kyiv. They have been vocal about the sanctions imposed on Russia, which are filled with loopholes, and the support packages for Ukraine that are often so watered down that they lose their impact. They also express frustration at how the EU prevaricates on what to do with the frozen Russian assets, and how it allows Hungary to continue obstructing with impunity.
The common resolve is bolstered by strong public support for their governments. This is particularly true in the Baltic states, where geographic proximity to Russia underscores the stakes. Having borders with Russia and no strategic depth to fall back on, there is an understandable realization that a Russian attack could spell disaster. While there are Russian-speaking minorities in Estonia and Latvia, they keep a low profile. The Nordic countries are now unified in their resolve to confront Russia. Unlike pro-Russian sentiments seen in the Alternative for Germany (AfD), French National Rally or Italy’s Northern League parties, such feelings are absent among political groups in the Nordic-Baltic region.
Facts & figures
Nordic-Baltic Eight: A key defense shield
Finland and Sweden’s strategic shift
The newfound unity emerging in the north of Europe is a direct result of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Until then, Finland and Sweden were neutral countries, creating a gray zone of uncertainty in the Baltic region, a situation that suited Russia’s interests. They decided to file applications for NATO membership in 2022 – it is important to note that prior to applying, Finland had been forced to accept neutrality as a part of its post-World War II settlement with the Soviet Union, while Sweden had made this choice willingly.
Finland’s decision to join NATO was made easier by its parliament enacting a “NATO option” that could be quickly implemented. In contrast, Sweden balked at the mere idea of joining, as many perceived it as a troubling embodiment of American imperialism. That attitude was deeply rooted within the Swedish Social Democratic Party. At a party congress in November 2021, then Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist firmly stated that NATO membership was out of the question and would certainly not happen during his time in office.
Consequently, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was met with very different responses in Stockholm and Helsinki. When it became clear that Finland was eager to join NATO, Sweden hesitated. During a meeting in Helsinki, then Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin was surprised when Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson publicly declared that Sweden’s NATO membership could significantly destabilize the security situation in the Baltic Sea region. Facing backlash in both countries, the Swedish government promptly shifted its stance. Thereafter, events began to unfold quickly.
On May 18, 2022, both countries jointly applied for NATO membership. After the national elections in September of that year, Sweden saw the formation of a non-socialist government that strongly endorsed NATO. Finland officially joined the alliance on April 4, 2023, and Sweden on March 7, 2024. These developments made the creation of the Nordic-Baltic Eight a possibility. Before it decided to join, Sweden could not participate in NATO air policing of the Baltic. Now, it has troops deployed on the ground in Latvia.
During their joint accession process, the two countries invested heavily in the coordination of their respective military assets. It was especially important that the two air forces held common drills, learning how to operate jointly out of military airfields in both countries. Swedish troops have also been deployed within Finland. In a decisive shift from its longstanding policy of neutrality, Sweden’s current Defense Minister Pal Jonson has declared that in the case of a Russian attack against Finland or one of the Baltic neighbors, Sweden would be fully engaged from day one.
Nordic-Baltic military strength
The big question looking forward concerns how solid the formation of Nordic-Baltic defense cooperation is, and what it may bring to the table. With a combined population of approximately 33 million and a joint gross domestic product of nearly $2 trillion, the Nordic-Baltic region has the tenth-largest population and the fifth-largest economy in Europe. It also has a strong industrial base with advanced high-tech ventures and a well-educated population. If these nations unite in purpose and action, they will rank among the big European players.
Looking beyond the economic influence and shared political resolve, which is missing in Brussels, there is also plenty of military hardware to support the rhetoric. Norway, Sweden and Finland all have cutting-edge military industries, producing weapons greatly appreciated in Kyiv. There are promising opportunities for further production and development through joint ventures with Ukrainian manufacturers.
Viewed in relation to its population of only 5.6 million, Finland has among the most powerful militaries in the world. The country has resisted the urge to take advantage of the so-called “peace dividend” by downsizing its military forces. Instead, it has upheld conscription, maintaining a strong army of 280,000 troops. It also has the most powerful artillery in Europe. Norway, Sweden and Finland (unlike Denmark and demilitarized Iceland) also have extensive experience in mountain warfare under Arctic conditions. This experience will be crucial if Russia resumes its ambition to militarize the Arctic.
The Russian regime claims indifference to Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership, triggered by its aggression against Ukraine. However, it must now confront the reality that NATO ground forces, including artillery, are positioned close to the vital military installations on the Kola Peninsula in the extreme northwest of Russia, which house its nuclear submarines.
The strategic situation in the north will also be transformed with the potential establishment of a joint Nordic Air Command. Finland, Norway and Denmark have all signed up to acquire the U.S. Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning fighter jets. When all deliveries have been made, they will collectively operate 143 of these multi-role stealth fighters. To this, Sweden’s fleet of 96 SAAB JAS Gripen fighters may be added, bringing the combined total to 239 aircraft. With the support of the Swedish SAAB GlobalEye airborne early warning and control platform, which has also been donated to Ukraine, this would present a formidable challenge to the Russian Air Force.
Patrolling the Baltic Sea, dubbed by some as the “NATO lake,” would be mainly up to the Swedish Navy, which operates state-of-the-art stealth missile corvettes and ultra-quiet conventional submarines, and has ample experience of amphibious operations. By virtue of owning the island of Gotland, known during the Cold War as the “unsinkable aircraft carrier,” Sweden is in control of the central Baltic. This allows the country to provide robust air defense and other back support against a potential Russian ground invasion of one of the Baltic states.
As part of its Soviet-era agreement, Finland was prevented from having submarines. However, it can still play a significant role by contributing capable surface vessels to a joint force. This would ensure that the Russian Baltic Fleet remains anchored at its bases in Kronstadt, near St. Petersburg, and Baltiysk, located in the Kaliningrad exclave. Aggressive mining operations would target the approaches to both bases, while powerful anti-ship missile systems positioned along the coasts of Finland and Estonia would effectively block Russian passage through the Gulf of Finland. Denmark would be well-placed to help intercept Russian naval sorties from Baltiysk and prevent any Russian ships from navigating the straits into the North Sea.
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The three Baltic states do not have their own air forces and have depended on NATO for air policing. Their navies are also quite small. However, they possess highly motivated and well-trained ground forces, who benefit from strong local knowledge and are backed by volunteer home guard units.
If the Nordic-Baltic Eight is joined by Poland, which is on track to become the leading military power in Europe, and gains support from the United Kingdom, could it assume responsibility for what is currently NATO’s northern flank? The increasing likelihood that NATO is in terminal decline, driven by diverging U.S. and EU priorities, makes this a question of pivotal importance to European security.
Scenarios
Most likely: German and Nordic-Baltic strength deters Russia
The most likely scenario is that a German military resurgence allows Europe to project sufficient strength to prevent Russia from defeating Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Nordic-Baltic Eight deters Russia from expanding its aggression to the Baltic states. Together with Poland and the UK, the group may then proceed to integrate Ukraine into a post-war order of military-industrial rebuilding and cooperation. This approach would ultimately equip Ukraine with the only reliable security guarantees it can depend on: its own military capabilities.
Less likely: Russia advances in Ukraine following deterrence failure
A less likely scenario is that deterrence fails, leading to Russian advances in Ukraine, followed by probing attacks against Poland or one of the Baltic states. The mainstay of this scenario is that the Nordic-Baltic Eight and its allies would have made sufficient preparations to repel such attacks and to discourage any further attempts. Given that the Baltic states lack sufficient strategic depth to withstand an attack, there are rumors about potential preventive strikes against Russian troop formations to thwart an attack before it even begins.
Least likely: Deterrence fails, Russia targets smaller NATO states
The least likely scenario would be a failure of deterrence, where Ukraine is abandoned and Russia prepares to launch drone strikes and significant military actions against smaller NATO member states. The aim would be to demonstrate that NATO is ineffective and that Article 5 on collective defense is no longer valid. The primary target of such aggression would likely be the Nordic-Baltic region, which is why these countries are racing to bolster their military capabilities. Its success depends on the extent to which the U.S. maintains a neutral or conciliatory stance toward Russia under the current administration.
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