North Korea’s dual China-Russia advantage
Xi’s visit to Pyongyang has strengthened economic ties, allowing North Korea to regain support from Beijing and Moscow.
In a nutshell
- Xi’s visit marked a shift to interest-based pragmatic engagement
- Beijing signaled readiness to expand cooperation in many practical fields
- Dual patronage with Russia may weaken sanctions’ practical effectiveness
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When Chinese President Xi Jinping visited North Korea in early June 2026, Western media coverage focused on the broad geopolitical narrative: China seeking to deepen its influence over a country that has been drawing closer to Russia, with the nuclear question hovering in the background. What received far less attention were the carefully chosen nuances of the official statements and speeches.
These signals matter because both China and North Korea are systems in which policy is rarely explained in public, and the summit seemingly produced few visible outcomes except highly warm personal exchanges. Official readouts cleared at high levels therefore become the principal indicators of intent. They point to a quiet but deliberate effort by both sides to expand practical cooperation and give the relationship new economic and strategic content, even as North Korea strengthens its parallel ties with Russia.
Key signals from Xi’s visit
Both sides reaffirmed the foundations of friendly relationships “forged in blood.” Chinese official readouts highlighted President Xi’s emphasis on the “shared ideals” of “both socialist countries led by communist parties … backed by a profound historical foundation, a solid political basis and strong emotional bonds.” He framed the relationship as “friendship passed down from generation to generation, a shared future and mutual support.” This language provided the political and ideological foundations for more forward-looking commitments.
President Xi stressed that China’s “firm stance on highly valuing” traditional friendship and “the firm support for General Secretary Kim” will not change. He highlighted meetings between the two leaders as crucial for building a strong foundation of mutual trust, and expressed a commitment to personally ensure ongoing strategic communication with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
The most revealing element was President Xi’s repeated emphasis on readiness and opportunity. According to the readouts, President Xi called for strengthening political mutual trust and enhancing practical engagement. The second pivotal sentence in that readout stated that he “expressed his readiness to work with Mr. Kim to take this visit as an opportunity to strengthen top-level planning and strategic guidance for China-Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) relations in the new era.” The words pointing to the future, “readiness” and “opportunity,” stand out in this sentence.
President Xi also called for expanded exchanges between the ruling parties and in diplomacy, law enforcement, military affairs and other fields. The phrase “China is ready” appears three more times in relation to expanding economic, humanitarian and cultural fields concerning the future direction of their relations. Taken together, these formulations suggest Beijing is prepared to move toward more pragmatic engagement when the North Korean side ensures the conditions for its expansion.
The Chinese leader further outlined the spirit in which relations should develop, urging both sides to “open up a new future, draw wisdom from the development process of the relations … seize opportunities in the prevailing trend of human history, inject new contemporary connotations and strong impetus.” The call for seizing “the prevailing trends” and injecting “new contemporary connotations” is particularly significant. It frames the relationship as one that must adapt to current geopolitical and economic realities.
Regarding security concerns affecting both regional and global order, Mr. Xi emphasized the importance of making positive contributions to peace, stability, development and prosperity, and he did not address nuclear issues specifically. He called for enhanced strategic coordination to firmly protect national sovereignty, security and developmental interests while jointly promoting regional peace and progress. By linking sovereignty and security with development interests, he connected political-military solidarity to economic advancement – a connection that could enhance pragmatic business cooperation.
As a result of the visit, President Xi, in his speech at the welcoming banquet, emphasized the “important consensus” reached with Kim Jong-un. He summed up that:
Both leaders have agreed to seize the general trend of the times, respond to the shared aspirations of the two peoples, strengthen high-level exchanges, deepen strategic communication, expand practical cooperation and enhance people-to-people bonds, promote the high-level development of China-DPRK relations, jointly open up brighter prospects for the socialist cause of both countries, and contribute to the continuous progress of human society.
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North Korea’s framing
According to readouts on the Chinese embassy website, Kim Jong-un was equally forthcoming on all these issues. He stressed that the visit by the Chinese president, his first foreign trip this year, represented “tremendous encouragement.” Mr. Kim underscored the unbreakable character of the bilateral relationship, noting that it had stood the test of time while upholding autonomy and justice.
Welcoming the proposals to expand ties, he added that the North Korean side would work closely with China and make every effort to fully implement them, so that the people of the DPRK could advance toward modernization together with the Chinese people. He reaffirmed Pyongyang’s support for the one-China principle and for safeguarding its core interests. Mr. Kim also vowed to spare no effort in joining hands to promote peace and prosperity in the region and beyond.
Mr. Kim’s explicit linkage of Chinese proposals to North Korea’s own modernization agenda is the clearest indication that Pyongyang sees expanded Chinese engagement as a practical path to economic progress, not merely political reassurance.
At the welcoming banquet that closed the talks, Mr. Kim stated that the two sides had reached an important consensus to advance DPRK-China relations with fresh, contemporary connotations in light of changing circumstances. They also exchanged views on international and regional issues of shared concern. These outcomes, he said, would accelerate the development of the historically rooted friendship between the two countries. In endorsing this language, he signaled acceptance of a more pragmatic evolution of the relationship.
Scenarios
Most likely: North Korea leverages dual patronage to consolidate position
At the outset of the visit, both sides, while affirming traditional bonds, highlighted the potential for expanded cooperation. As a result of the visit, they agreed to work to implement the proposals across multiple areas. Most notably, the North Korean leader responded to the Chinese proposal to work closely to help North Korea advance toward modernization and move toward relations “with new contemporary connotations in light of new changing circumstances.” President Xi cemented this sentiment by stating that the two leaders agreed to “seize the general trend of times,” “expand practical cooperation” and “jointly open up brighter prospects.”
These statements could mark a new, more investment-accommodating and mutually beneficial stage in Chinese-North Korean economic cooperation. They are most likely not a signal of any changes in North Korea’s economic policies. However, low-key signaling, as was framed by the former Mongolian Foreign Minister and seasoned diplomat, about economic reforms in countries with a similar economic structure may be yielding results. This could lead to increased economic activity by foreign firms in North Korea, especially – and most likely only – Chinese and Russian firms, in contrast to the earlier period when South Korean firms invested in the free economic zones.
The consequences for North Korea are quite clear: It has already significantly benefited economically from supplying Russia with military equipment and ammunition and sending its military. Cooperation between these two countries is broadening: Russian media has already reported tourists visiting North Korean resorts and large groups of North Korean women being sent to work in various areas in Russia.
The potential for increased investment from Chinese state-owned enterprises is very real if the North Korean side ensures a conducive operating environment and investment security. A turn toward more pragmatic cooperation, highlighted during this visit, reflects Beijing’s readiness to invest if conditions are acceptable and Pyongyang is favorably disposed toward such investment. It will not be easy, since Chinese state-owned enterprises are accustomed to operating under more or less market-based rules in most remote foreign markets, and for the North Korean authorities, it is uncharted territory. However, the ship is certainly sailing in this direction, and in the next few years, there will very likely be an increase in business engagement by Chinese state-owned enterprises in North Korea.
This aspect of the visit did not receive much attention. It likely reflects North Korea’s growing confidence, supported by its deepening ties with Russia, while underscoring the ongoing need to strengthen economic ties with China. These joint relations are not contradictory and put North Korea in a favorable position, like the situation before the breakdown of Sino-Soviet relations in the 1960s, when both countries were sources of trade, assistance, training and technology. Most importantly, both nations have served as security guarantors through mutual defense agreements, a role China has maintained ever since despite the turn in relations and Russia’s move two years ago.
Less likely: External pressure forces a change of course
Assurances of regional and global peace and security will be welcomed by those eager to see progress. Yet the underlying reality remains: North Korea is a country that possesses nuclear weapons outside the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
Since the United States, France and the United Kingdom hold vetoes on the United Nations Security Council and remain committed to the existing sanctions architecture, formal changes to the measures against North Korea remain unlikely. However, with Russia openly opposing and China abstaining from renewing the mandate for the UN inspection team, the practical effectiveness of the sanctions is largely undercut.
North Korea, a de facto nuclear state with more resources to develop its capabilities through increased trade with China and Russia, does not sit well with the U.S., European nations, Japan or South Korea. Tensions are likely to rise, though they will be tempered or triggered by the broader security context among the great powers. In this sense, the situation is again coming to resemble that of the 1960s.
The less likely worst-case scenario is that Japan and South Korea go down the road of nuclear weapons, incited by increased North Korean economic capacity to expand its nuclear capacity and delivery systems.
More likely is a change in their posture, as Japan is already exhibiting greater forward-deployment capacity and more intense security cooperation with the U.S. and other Western allies aimed at deterring North Korea. More security cooperation will likely lead to more economic and technological cooperation and to greater government willingness to drive this cooperation, which will deepen Japan-South Korea economic ties.
It is not Russia and China competing for North Korea’s attention. Rather, it is the broader global security landscape that is allowing North Korea to regain a more stable economic footing. Meanwhile, regional tensions may be influenced by this overall situation, either escalating or de-escalating depending on the circumstances. At this moment, escalation is more likely, as many sides are rooting for a new balance of power in the region. As North Korea comes closer to both Russia and China, this also pushes the U.S., Japan and South Korea into a closer embrace, militarily, politically and economically.
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