Hungarian voters wanted change
With Viktor Orban ousted, Peter Magyar must now deliver EU funds, tackle corruption and steer Hungary through costly energy and social reforms.
In a nutshell
- Fidesz’s decline is tied to inflation, halted EU funds and stagnation
- A two-thirds majority gives Tisza strong parliamentary control
- Education and culture shifts may deepen political and cultural divides
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Over 53 percent of Hungarian voters supported the Tisza party in the election held on April 12, 2026. Just two years earlier, the party had not even existed, and few people had heard of Peter Magyar, who would become the country’s next prime minister. Yet he ended the 16-year rule of former Prime Minister Viktor Orban and the Fidesz party.
Fidesz received 40 percent of the vote, 800,000 votes less than its challenger. This was enough for Magyar’s Tisza party to secure a two-thirds majority in parliament.
Mr. Magyar achieved this victory through a combination of tactical skill and a keen sense of the national mood. However, it would not have been possible without the serious mistakes made by Fidesz and Prime Minister Orban, particularly in the past two years.
Fidesz and Orban ran out of ideas
The decline of the Fidesz party did not start during the latest election campaign, but much earlier, around the time the Covid-19 crisis wound down. Due to high inflation, the Hungarian central bank had to raise interest rates, sharply slowing economic growth. After the 2022 election, which Fidesz still won with a two-thirds majority, the European Union began imposing sanctions on Hungary and withholding financial aid due to rule of law violations and democratic backsliding. These measures had dramatic consequences, hitting the middle and lower-middle classes particularly hard.
In 2010, Fidesz had campaigned on fostering national entrepreneurship. The plan was to encourage capital accumulation by domestic owners of businesses, inspired by the South Korean model. By adopting this form of economic nationalism, Fidesz aimed to keep capital and industrial power in national hands rather than allowing it to pass to multinational companies. The ultimate goal was to create a robust domestic entrepreneurship that would remain politically aligned with the party.
While the plan was partially successful, it also fostered widespread corruption and cronyism. Initially, the positive effects of Fidesz’s liberal and national economic policies benefited the lower and middle classes. To a certain extent, the population was integrated into the system. Particularly in rural areas, Fidesz built a network of local elites who distributed benefits while enriching themselves. EU infrastructure funding played a crucial role in sustaining this system.
However, this system began to break down with the onset of economic crises and the suspension of EU aid. Over 16 years, the number of people involved in unsavory practices within and around the party steadily increased. Corruption and nepotism worsened significantly. With inflation and living costs rising, European funding became more essential than ever.
Fidesz did little to address these problems. The party had grown complacent and lacked compelling ideas for the future. Its conflict with Europe became increasingly toxic, exacerbated by the Ukraine dispute, and the prospect of receiving EU funds seemed distant.
Magyar correctly read voters’ feelings
Mr. Magyar, himself a former and disgraced member of Fidesz, built his campaign around the civic anger he and many citizens shared. His platform was straightforward: Orban and Fidesz must go. This simple message resonated deeply and enabled him to overshadow the traditional left-wing and green opposition. He successfully united everyone who wanted change from the Orban system and harbored resentment against those in power.
Yet Mr. Magyar’s victory was not due solely to Fidesz’s mistakes and an effective campaign. Given the election’s significant geopolitical importance, there appears to have been foreign interference. There were intelligence operations in cooperation with left-wing and woke media outlets, which were funded by the EU and organizations affiliated with the American Democrats. Facebook, owned by the Meta corporation, supported Mr. Magyar and openly discriminated against Mr. Orban’s supporters.
Shortly before the election, the Ukrainian government closed the Druzhba oil pipeline, which is vital to Hungary. The Hungarian approval of the 90 billion-euro EU loan for Ukraine was withdrawn following the blocking of the Druzhba pipeline. While not the deciding factor, the pressure from Western Europe and Ukraine in support of Mr. Magyar was significant.
Tisza aligns with left-liberal Western European expectations
In the lead-up to the election, little was known about the Tisza party’s program. Mr. Magyar’s campaign leaned heavily on emotional appeal. The diverse interests among various voter groups made it challenging for the party to adopt a cohesive stance. The left-liberal perspectives of urban citizens clashed with the more conservative values of the rural population.
Mr. Magyar’s primary promise was to “bring home” EU aid without making major concessions on migration or support for Ukraine. Yielding on these issues would have been unpopular, even among his supporters.
Since the election, the European Commission has shown little willingness to compromise or quickly remove obstacles. As a result, Prime Minister Magyar needs to thread a needle, satisfying EU officials and the Hungarian electorate.
He also promised to join the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) and the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) to combat corruption. These pledges align with his election campaign promises, which included confiscating the assets of businesspeople affiliated with Fidesz and holding those involved in corrupt dealings accountable.
Prime Minister Magyar has urged Hungarian police, prosecutors and tax authorities to freeze any assets and accounts believed to be stolen or acquired by corruption. He called for the detention of individuals suspected of crimes and associated with the outgoing Orban government, to prevent them from fleeing without charge or trial before his administration took office.
Immediately after the election, he called on high-ranking state officials – including the President of Hungary, judges of the Constitutional Court and the Chief Prosecutor – to either resign immediately or face “removal” from office. According to a post on Mr. Magyar’s X account, these officials have until May 31 to step down voluntarily. He originally intended to appoint his brother-in-law as minister of justice, but this was prevented at the last moment by the intervention of the EU. Such statements and actions raise concerns about future legal certainty.
A planned radical overhaul of the tax system points toward a Western European-style welfare state. The previous Fidesz governments aimed to encourage legal employment by maintaining low taxes while keeping the welfare state limited. The new approach focuses on fairness: The very low flat tax of 15 percent on income and 9 percent on corporate taxes will be replaced by a progressive tax system. A 1 percent wealth tax will be levied on all assets exceeding 2.75 million euros (1 billion Hungarian forints). The revenue generated from these taxes is intended to be invested in healthcare and education. Technical details are still pending.
More on Europe’s political landscape
Growing political influence of multinational corporations
The incoming Magyar government is rich in ministers from the business world, particularly from top positions in multinational corporations. For example, Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Anita Orban (who is not related to former Prime Minister Orban) previously held a senior management role at the telecommunications company Vodafone.
Ms. Orban advocates for “integrating Hungary into the Western alliance system” and will end the neutrality efforts pursued by Prime Minister Orban. She is reportedly favored by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. She already signaled a major shift in asylum policy to end EU fines and promised to end Hungary’s veto policy.
The Ministry of Economy will be led by Janos Kapitany, who has spent several decades at Shell Corp., eventually becoming the global vice president. He will focus on diversifying the energy supply, which is expected to involve phasing out Russian energy imports in line with steps taken elsewhere in Europe after Moscow invaded Ukraine. This will have socio-political consequences. The Fidesz government aimed to keep household energy costs low through subsidies and cheaper Russian deliveries. This policy will be hard to sustain once Russian energy is replaced by more expensive Western sources.
At his first press conference after the April 12 victory, Mr. Magyar stated that the country would continue purchasing Russian energy and seek the cheapest available oil. This position appears to contradict his campaign promise to phase out Russian energy imports by 2035.
Together with economist Andras Karman, a former board member of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and now finance minister, Mr. Magyar is working toward Hungary’s accession to the eurozone within the next four years.
It is noteworthy that the new minister for children and education is an LGBTQ activist with no teaching experience whatsoever, but an outspoken critic of the traditional concept of performance-oriented teaching methods in schools. This appointment appeals strongly to the urban, progressive elite and the rebellious students who strongly backed Mr. Magyar.
These decisions mean that many EU demands unmet under the previous national-conservative government will now be addressed. However, the country remains deeply divided, and the new prime minister continues to stir emotions and widen the divide. The continued persecution, especially of journalists as well as others who do not identify with Mr. Magyar’s policy, seriously jeopardizes social peace and the prospects for the successful restructuring of the Hungarian economy.
Scenarios
More likely: Magyar faces mounting pressure and Fidesz struggles to regroup
A division of responsibilities is emerging between the emotional policies of Mr. Magyar and his more technocratic and pragmatic government. He is likely to continue blaming the ousted Fidesz government and widespread corruption for the country’s difficulties in order to maintain support from his base.
In the long run, however, the extreme division of society is counterproductive both socially and economically. The admission of migrants will certainly provoke social opposition. Added to this are the new prime minister’s character flaws. Peter Magyar is unpredictable and lacks self-control. On the diplomatic front, his ability to engage effectively with major powers such as the U.S. or China remains uncertain.
It is likely that he will eventually be replaced as prime minister by the more diplomatically experienced Anita Orban or another minister. Such a change could occur with the involvement of EU leadership, which would prefer a more predictable leader in Hungary, as this might encourage a return of the national conservatives to power.
However, it is questionable whether Fidesz will be able to win back voter confidence so it could govern again within the next four years. The party is in disarray; it is even uncertain whether it will continue to exist in its current form.
Less likely: The economy breaks out of stagnation in the short term
Hungary will not quickly recover from economic stagnation under the new government. Any EU aid received will be directed toward infrastructure, education and social projects. However, the major issue of dependence on the increasingly crisis-ridden German economy cannot be resolved in the short term. The planned diversification of energy supply will lead to price increases.
The announced expropriation and punitive measures against companies affiliated with Fidesz on concerns of wrongdoing may slow economic growth. With higher taxes and rising energy costs, a recovery through the domestic market appears unlikely.
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