Split victory in Portugal
While Portugal’s presidential election produced a clear winner, rising support for the national-conservative right suggests the balance of power is shifting.
In a nutshell
- The minority government is exposed to shifting parliamentary alliances
- Opposition blocs converge tactically but lack durable cooperation
- Chega’s popularity may reshape Portugal’s political balance
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On February 8, 2026, the second round of the Portuguese presidential election brought face-to-face the two leading candidates from the first round: Antonio Jose Seguro, 63, former secretary-general of the Socialist Party (PS), and Andre Ventura, 43, a member of parliament and leader of the Chega party.
It would be difficult to find two more different personalities, or two more distinct political forces. Mr. Seguro is a moderate, discreet and polished politician who was sidelined within his own party by the current president of the European Council, former socialist leader and prime minister of Portugal, Antonio Costa.
Mr. Ventura, by contrast, is the enfant terrible of Portuguese politics: the leader of the new national-populist – or national-conservative – party, which his political opponents and much of the media describe as “far-right,” “radical right” or even, for dramatic effect, “fascist.” Born into a lower-middle-class family on the outskirts of Lisbon, he initially enrolled in a Catholic seminary before studying law. He holds a PhD in public law from University College Cork in Ireland, where he graduated with high honors. He also worked as a sports commentator.
A former member of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) – a center-right party in Portugal – Mr. Ventura left in 2019 to create Chega. His aim was to establish a party dedicated to right-wing values, national independence and a conservative stance on social issues.
Since then, Mr. Ventura’s political rise has been remarkable in both speed and scale. In the 2019 legislative elections, he received 70,000 votes and was the sole deputy elected from his party, Chega. In February, less than seven years later, he secured 33.2 percent of the vote – more than 1.7 million ballots. Chega now holds 60 seats, making it the second-largest force in parliament, trailing only the ruling Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition formed by the PSD and the small center-right party Centro Democratico Social (CDS).
An anti-system presidential candidate
There were four representatives from the Communist Party and far-left groups, but collectively they failed to secure even 5 percent of the vote. Additionally, two candidates emerged from center-right parties: Luis Marques Mendes from the PSD and Joao Cotrim de Figueiredo from the Liberal Initiative. An independent contender, Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo, a former navy officer, also joined the race.
Mr. Marques Mendes was the candidate of the governing coalition. In the May 2025 legislative elections, the coalition parties secured 31 percent of the vote, enabling them to form a minority government led by Luis Montenegro. In the presidential election, however, their candidate received only one-third of that share – 11 percent. Mr. Cotrim de Figueiredo, former leader of the Liberal Initiative – a party economically on the right but leftist on national and family values (pro-abortion and pro-euthanasia) – obtained around 900,000 votes, or 19 percent, outperforming his party’s previous legislative result.
As for Admiral Gouveia e Melo, early polls placed him in the lead with more than 30 percent support, presenting him as an outsider candidate, unaffiliated with any political party and credited with administrative efficiency during the Covid-19 vaccination campaign. His support, however, fell sharply after he revealed during the campaign what many perceived as political inexperience and an insufficient command of policy matters. He ultimately secured only 12 percent of the vote.
Although Mr. Seguro has a long-standing affiliation with the Socialist Party, he also positioned himself as an anti-system candidate. After being effectively removed from party leadership by Antonio Costa, he withdrew from party politics and moved into private business. Mr. Seguro possesses characteristics that distinguish him from much of the political class to which he belongs. One trait widely acknowledged is his personal integrity, particularly regarding lobbying and influence peddling. Such practices are often seen as endemic within Portugal’s political class, especially among the Socialists and Social Democrats, who have alternated in government for the past 50 years, either in turn or in alliances.
Mr. Seguro is known for distancing himself from such practices, a stance seen as an advantage amid widespread corruption. Some top-tier figures in Portuguese politics did not risk entering the race, fearing they would be confronted with their professional business past.
Mr. Seguro presented himself as an independent candidate, and the Socialist Party did not support him at first, even though the party’s current leader, Jose Luis Carneiro, also belongs to the moderate wing of the PS. They later followed the trend, seeking to embrace both the victory and the victor, who gave them a cold reception.
A divisive contender
With Mr. Ventura’s advance to the second round, however, the anti-rightwing hysteria that has characterized European politics – particularly since the success of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and the victory of United States President Donald Trump – erupted in full force in a country where the center has ceded intellectual control of the cultural and media spheres to the left. This time, an anti-Ventura coalition emerged, reflecting the level of alarm among establishment forces when confronted by the new nationalist right. It brought together an unexpected mix of figures – including former Prime Minister and President Anibal Cavaco Silva, as well as leaders from the CDS and the Liberal Initiative – in support of Mr. Seguro, echoing warnings of “democracy in danger.”
Abstention was very high, at around 50 percent. Mr. Ventura, widely portrayed by much of the media, political class and influencer ecosystem as a threat to democracy, secured one-third of the vote.
The pattern closely mirrors developments in French presidential elections around Marine Le Pen: She leads in the first round, is defeated by a broad anti-Le Pen coalition in the second, yet continues to increase both her vote share and overall support from one election to the next. This dynamic has reached a point where, in what is becoming an increasingly common practice, her opponents have turned to the courts to block her.
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In Portugal, a similar temptation has emerged, with several politicians and radical left movements calling for a ban on the Chega party. Yet such a move would be difficult to implement today, given the scale of support for Andre Ventura and his party.
On the same Sunday, February 8 – the day of Portugal’s presidential election – the national conservative party Vox doubled its representation in the Aragon regional parliament in neighboring Spain. Meanwhile, in Japan, Sanae Takaichi, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and a national-conservative figure with ties to Donald Trump, secured a decisive legislative victory, winning 316 of 465 seats.
In Portugal, victory was split. Mr. Seguro secured the presidency and the Belem Palace, while Mr. Ventura established clear dominance on the right.
Scenarios
Moderately likely: Opposition parties converge to oust the ruling coalition
Under normal circumstances, legislative elections would not be due until 2029. However, the AD government remains a minority administration, exposed to any vote of confidence in which its adversaries on both the left (the Socialist Party) and the right (Chega) might converge.
All indications suggest that Antonio Jose Seguro will seek to act as an institutional president, discreet and reluctant to interfere in the government’s executive functions. With no political debts to the forces that withheld support in the first round, he faces little pressure to offer concessions. He has also made clear in multiple interviews that he maintains no ideological “red lines” and would swear in the winner of any election, including Chega.
Yet his intervention may still prove necessary. Portugal’s political landscape is now defined by three forces that align only in opposition, never in cooperation. Luis Montenegro’s AD government faces two hostile blocs: the Socialist Party and Chega. Its survival ultimately depends on preventing any tactical understanding between them.
As the second-largest force, Chega now has a clear strategic path. Under Andre Ventura, it is well-placed to pursue full dominance on the right. To do so, it will need to broaden its bench, attracting credible figures and policy expertise, particularly in socioeconomic areas, in preparation for the possibility of early elections.
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