POLITICSNovember 1, 2024

European security stakes in Romania’s 2024 elections

Paul Dragos Aligica

Reading time: 7 min

Romania, set to host Europe’s biggest NATO base, faces elections testing its ruling bipartisan coalition and commitment to pro-Western and Euroatlantic policies.

Romania’s upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections carry weight for European security. As a NATO member bordering Ukraine, Romania’s political alignment directly impacts regional stability and collective defense efforts. NATO countries are currently expanding the Mihail Kogalniceanu air base near Constanta on the Black Sea coast of southeast Romania. It will be the alliance’s largest military base in Europe and will overtake the Ramstein Air Base in size and importance. Shifts in Romania’s internal politics could influence its role within the alliance and its relationships with Western allies.

Romania’s presidential race

The country’s presidential balloting is scheduled for November 24, 2024, with a potential second round on December 8 if no candidate secures a majority. With less than a month remaining, the race remains unpredictable.

While official candidates represent all major political forces, public sentiment has long suggested that a dramatic change in the lineup was imminent. Rumors circulated about the possible replacement of underperforming candidates (as seen in the current U.S. presidential contest) or the introduction of a bipartisan president-prime minister ticket. Ultimately, however, no such changes have occurred. One month from the first round of voting, the candidates put forward in spring will enter the election phase (with just one exception).

Two factors complicate the situation. First, Romania, a country with over 19 million people, has developed a governance system that operates within an effective two-tier structure: the formal political system characterized by democratic and liberal institutions, and an informal governance layer that includes various actors and institutions wielding less transparent influence. This informal layer serves as a mechanism of feedback and control that sometimes supersedes the formal system. It comprises administrative and technocratic elites in agencies and national organizations, defense and intelligence services, decision-makers in state-controlled economic sectors or strategic private industries, as well as regional and local political networks.

The two major parties have formed a grand coalition government since late 2021, despite being traditional adversaries.

Analyses of Romania’s deeper decision-making processes based solely on visible dynamics can be misleading. Many Romanians have come to expect that their political system will consistently exhibit dynamics driven by informal governance structures, including dramatic maneuvers and surprising moves during electoral campaigns. This perception contributes to increased uncertainty and confusion in public and political life.

‘Alliance against nature’

The second complicating factor is the current state of the political superstructure. The two major parties – the Social Democratic Party (left) and the National Liberal Party (right) – have governed in a grand coalition since late 2021, despite being traditional adversaries. This “alliance against nature,” as many have dubbed it, emerged in response to pressures from the Covid-19 crisis and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Many view this alliance as indicative of the deeper governance dynamics at play.

In the June 2024 European Parliament elections, these two parties ran on joint lists, securing 48.6 percent of the vote. However, they fielded separate candidates in local elections held on the same day, with the Social Democrats gaining an edge at 37.6 percent compared to the National Liberals’ 32.3 percent.

The parliamentary elections 

Scheduled for December 1, 2024, the parliamentary race could overlap with the presidential contest. Both major parties find themselves striving to succeed outgoing President Klaus Iohannis while also competing in parliamentary contests. Candidates from the governing coalition are competing against each other, while at the same time jointly holding power responsibilities. Nicolae Ciuca, president of the National Liberal Party, cleared up the confusion for the public by stating on October 7: “The governing coalition with the Social Democratic Party ends here.” He added that the National Liberals would remain in government with the Social Democrats only to prevent their opponents committing a “complete escalation of abuses” to win the elections. Looking at this context more closely reveals the sources of uncertainty surrounding the presidential and parliamentary elections. 

Fluctuating numbers

Amid significant uncertainty surrounding the presidential race, opinion polls have shown considerable divergence. By mid-October 2024, Social Democratic Party leader and current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu (24 percent) was the leading contender. He was followed by George Simion (17 percent), former NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana (15 percent) and the liberal Nicolae Ciuca (15 percent). Elena Lasconi ranked fifth with 14 percent.

At this juncture, given the current lineup of candidates and opinion surveys, two aspects of the post-election landscape are becoming increasingly clear. 

Notably, surveys indicate that about one-third of respondents had not settled on a candidate, indicating a still-fluid political climate.

In the parliamentary elections, polls project the Social Democrats securing the most votes with 31 percent, followed by the National Liberals at 20 percent. 

Among the opposition parties, AUR Alliance is expected to win 18 percent, the Save Romania Union 15 percent, and S.O.S. Romania 7 percent. The ethnic Hungarian party UDMR, which is not strictly an opposition party, is expected to maintain its traditional support at around 5 percent, meeting the electoral threshold. (All polling data comes from this October 17 opinion poll)

The critical issues

Candidates’ positions on critical issues have become key indicators of their broader geopolitical alignments, particularly regarding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Read more on Central Europe and NATO

• Europe’s new Iron Curtain
• The shifting balance of power in the Black Sea
• Romania-Moldova reunification: Three scenarios
• Reconstructing the postwar Black Sea region

In Romania, the landscape is clear. Mainstream candidates align consistently with the European and U.S. establishment; only the disqualified Ms. Sosoaca stood out as a vocal critic. George Simion occupies a middle ground by expressing concerns about Romanian minorities in Ukraine, Western “cultural wars” and national sovereignty versus European Union centralism, while still supporting Romania’s pro-Euroatlantic orientation.

On economic issues along the traditional left-right axis, all candidates appear center-left, favoring interventionism and economic statism without addressing economic stagnation or offering a thoughtfully developed set of economic and social policies.

Moreover, except for Mr. Geoana, none have articulated a compelling vision for Romania’s identity or role in Europe in the 21st century. Even his rhetoric remains limited mainly to slogans about EU and NATO alignment, without genuine sensitivity to global developments. 

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