Scandals erode Sao Paulo Forum’s leftist grip
The Sao Paulo Forum, once a powerful left-wing Latin American political bloc, now struggles with corruption, criminal ties and waning influence.
In a nutshell
- 11 governments across Latin America are party to the Sao Paulo Forum
- SPF-affiliated regimes have shown democratic backsliding
- Recent scandals and drug trafficking links threaten SPF’s credibility
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The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 marked the end of the Cold War with the triumph of capitalism over socialism. In Latin America, many expected the Cuban communist regime to collapse, mirroring events in former Iron Curtain countries. It was also hoped that armed narco-terrorist groups, such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN), would abandon violence and embrace democratic governance. However, developments did not unfold as expected.
Fidel Castro, Cuba’s late leader, developed a strategy to stay in power, endure tough times and weaken democratic systems in the region. In July 1990, Brazil’s Workers’ Party (PT), led by current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (known as Lula), along with the Communist Party of Cuba, held a meeting in Sao Paulo. This gathering united 68 political groups from 22 Latin American countries, marking the beginning of the Sao Paulo Forum (SPF). Since then, the SPF has held 27 meetings in various cities, with the most recent taking place in 2024 in Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras.
The SPF’s main goal was to bring together leftist movements across Latin America. With advice from Cuba and funding provided by the late Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez, it grew into a major platform for political parties, and today, 11 governments in the region are under its sway.
In its statements, the SPF claims that “it is not and does not seek to be an organizational structure that imposes conditions on its members, nor a transmitter of unanimity.” However, history suggests that the SPF operates as a centralized group led by Cuba, dictating guidelines for its members.
The forum coordinates strategies for member groups to win elections, often followed by efforts to amend constitutions, centralize power and restrict free expression. SPF-affiliated governments also routinely criticize the United States and have strengthened ties with countries like Iran, Russia and China.
It is important to note that the early Sao Paulo Forum meetings included participation from groups like FARC and ELN, suggesting initial tolerance for their deadly terrorist methods. Later, the SPF distanced itself from these groups for strategic reasons. However, documents recovered from FARC’s second-in-command, alias Raul Reyes, during Operation Phoenix in March 2008, indicated ongoing connections between some SPF members and Colombian narco-terrorism.
The first pink tide
In May 1995, after his release from prison for the 1992 coup attempts, Chavez attended the Sao Paulo Forum’s fifth meeting in Montevideo, Uruguay, to register. During this gathering, the members of the SPF agreed to support the coup-plotting lieutenant-colonel, anticipating that he would show gratitude once he took power in Venezuela. Ultimately, Chavez won the presidential elections in December 1998, and he quickly began to extend political support and generous financial backing to his allies, who in turn secured victories in their own elections across various countries.
Including the regimes of Cuba and Venezuela, the Sao Paulo Forum had 14 presidents governing simultaneously within a decade of Chavez’s rise. No political platform – neither Christian democracy, the international socialist movement nor liberal parties – had achieved such dominance. This expansion was termed the “pink tide” by the left.
Facts & figures
Key SPF members who came to power during the first pink tide
The takeover of Latin American institutions
Just as opposition parties often transition to executive roles after winning elections, members of the Sao Paulo Forum rose from relative obscurity to hold key positions across Latin America, including presidents, ministers, parliamentarians, governors, ambassadors and representatives in multilateral organizations. However, some forum-linked governments exhibited democratic backsliding and authoritarian tendencies.
From time to time, Castro, Chavez and their allies in the forum would meet in Havana or another Latin American capital city to make joint decisions about what should be done in each country. Yet, the members of the SPF have been criticized for their double standards.
The SPF has never criticized human rights violations in Cuba, Nicaragua or Venezuela. Its members supported the electoral fraud committed by former Bolivian President Evo Morales in 2019; defended former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa and Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner when they were convicted of corruption; endorsed the 2022 coup d’etat perpetrated by former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo; and remained silent when Colombian President Gustavo Petro was found to have received drug trafficking funds for his campaign. More recently, forum members ignored the electoral fraud by Venezuela’s regime in July 2024 and dismissed the existence of the Cartel of the Suns (drug trafficking cells within Venezuela’s military), led by President Nicolas Maduro.
Regarding political opponents, forum-affiliated governments have pursued legal actions against those who eschew their philosophy; figures like former Colombian president Alvaro Uribe, former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro and Venezuelan politician Maria Corina Machado. Right-wing candidates have been assassinated without the Sao Paulo Forum speaking out, as was the case with Fernando Villavicencio in Ecuador and Miguel Uribe Turbay in Colombia.
Nevertheless, due to poor management, the 14 presidents who were members of the Sao Paulo Forum lost popularity. Starting in 2009, some were defeated in elections, while others were removed from office for violating the law. As a result, the first pink tide receded, leaving the SPF with only four presidents: Tabare Vazquez from Uruguay, along with the authoritarian dictators of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
The democratic governments that succeeded SPF leaders did not fully reject socialism; instead, they prioritized political correctness to avoid criticism. They adopted progressive policies, including support for abortion, gender policies, environmental initiatives and drug legalization.
The second pink tide in Latin America
After the deaths of Chavez in 2013 and Castro in 2016, Mexico’s Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador rose to prominence, with his 2018 election victory revitalizing the Sao Paulo Forum. In subsequent years, leaders in other countries took power, raising the number of governments under SPF influence to 12.
The organization seized this new opportunity to embark on a journey of international expansion. In July 2019 it played a key role in establishing the Puebla Group, a forum for Latin American and Southern European progressive leaders. It also indirectly supported the creation of the Progressive International in May 2020, a global network uniting progressive movements. The SPF has also been alleged to have financed political parties in Europe and other continents.
During the second pink tide, the Sao Paulo Forum strengthened efforts to unite Latin American left-wing parties, fully adopting the tenets of progressivism. In January 2023, President Petro stated that the first pink tide failed due to insufficient progressivism, stressing that aligning with global progressive movements was key to retaining power.
More on Latin America
- Venezuela: Maduro’s end is near
- Milei’s economic policy in Argentina
- Organized crime and security in Latin America
In September 2022, the Colombian leader delivered a speech at the United Nations General Assembly, where he called for an end to the war on drugs. “What is more poisonous for humanity, cocaine, coal, or oil?” he asked. A report released by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime in June revealed that from 2022 to 2023, coca crop productivity in Colombia surged, doubling its output. Today, Colombia is responsible for 67 percent of global coca production.
The young Chilean President Gabriel Boric has embraced a progressive vision influenced by the Sao Paulo Forum. He attempted to implement what many see as the most progressive draft constitution in the region, which included the “right to voluntary termination of pregnancy,” recognized “human rights to water,” granted constitutional standing to gender ideology and redefined Chile as a “plurinational and intercultural state.” However, Mr. Boric’s constitutional project failed, being rejected at the polls by 62 percent of Chileans.
Now, 35 years since its first meeting, the Sao Paulo Forum has developed various strategies to obscure its intentions, yet its members continue to undermine democracy and maintain ties to organized crime.
Despite President Maduro’s convictions in two U.S. courts for drug trafficking and a $50 million reward for his capture, SPF members continue to publicly support him and refuse to back the fight against the Cartel of the Suns.
Facts & figures
What is Cartel of the Suns?
The Cartel of the Suns (Cartel de los Soles) refers to a web of drug trafficking and organized crime that is tightly woven into the fabric of Venezuela’s military and government institutions. The term “Cartel of the Suns” refers to the sun insignia on the epaulettes of Venezuelan generals, symbolizing their rank. Unlike a traditional hierarchical cartel like Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel, it operates as a loose network of competing factions and protection rackets, relying on corruption and state complicity.
In July, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed sanctions on the Cartel of the Suns, identifying it as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist Organization. The department also stated that the criminal group is led by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro Moros, along with other high-ranking members of his regime, who it claims provides material support to foreign terrorist organizations.
Currently, the primary challenge facing the SPF stems from U.S. President Donald Trump’s strategy, which labels drug cartels as terrorist organizations threatening American security. The U.S. has ordered military deployment to neutralize them. This policy shifts Washington’s long-standing view of Mr. Maduro. This makes it harder for SPF members to defend him on political or sovereignty grounds, as they have done in the past.
Scenarios
Most likely: The Sao Paulo Forum survives after Trump
Members of the SPF, such as Presidents Lula and Boric and Uruguay’s Yamandu Orsi, who are not linked to drug trafficking, will distance themselves from the Venezuelan regime. They prioritize political survival by negotiating with opponents and consolidating the support of global powers like China. Others, including presidents Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua, Miguel Diaz-Canel of Cuba and Mr. Petro of Colombia, continue to support Mr. Maduro, affecting their standing as his influence wanes.
Consequently, they find themselves forced to go underground. The Sao Paulo Forum, once visible in the public eye, now shifts its focus to securing communicational hegemony via social media and alternative platforms. This effort is bolstered by the use of bots that receive support from Russia and other global powers beyond the continent.
The SPF’s website has been down for some time. According to a post on its X account on August 9, it reported over 5 million attacks by bots and far-right accounts across its networks and website. “We will not stop, and we will not be intimidated. Our policy is in history itself,” the forum stated in a social media post in response.
This might be seen as a parting message, but it does not indicate that the SPF will cease its efforts. Instead, it may adopt a more discreet approach, awaiting a more favorable political climate, possibly following the second Trump administration. The left-wing movement and the collaboration among its leaders will persist. It is highly likely that a new organization, under a different name, will emerge to revitalize the Latin American left and take on the roles that the Sao Paulo Forum has fulfilled until now.
President Maduro’s imminent fall will severely affect Cuba, which is already facing a serious economic crisis similar to the “Special Period” after the Soviet Union’s collapse. While Chavez’s support helped sustain the Cuban regime in the 1990s, no country appears willing to provide similar aid now, especially during Mr. Trump’s presidency. As a result, the SPF’s operational hub, traditionally based in Cuba, may shift to Mexico or Brazil, where the Workers’ Party and the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) still wield considerable power.
Less likely: The Sao Paulo Forum fades
The victory of right-wing candidates in the 2025-2026 period allows for cooperation between the U.S. and several Latin American governments to expand the fight against drug cartels and organized crime. In this scenario, new information comes to light linking the Cartel of the Suns to the SPF, preventing its members from surviving politically.
To address the SPF’s narrative campaign, Latin American right-wing parties will avoid past mistakes made during the retreat of the first pink tide. They will engage more actively in cultural debates, responding to progressive stances, as seen in the approaches of Presidents Javier Milei in Argentina and Santiago Pena in Paraguay.
The Sao Paulo Forum’s future is uncertain, but its vision feels tired and discredited. Over its 35 years, it has systematically backed brutal regimes in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Many of its prominent figures have been linked to serious wrongdoing: corruption scandals, coup attempts, illegal campaign financing, electoral fraud, crimes against humanity linked to Mr. Maduro and Mr. Ortega and accusations of pedophilia against Mr. Morales (which he has denied). The forum’s deep connections to the Venezuelan regime, and by extension to the Cartel of the Suns and organized crime, have dealt it the heaviest blow.
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