Senegal presidential election brings upstart Faye to power
Senegal’s peaceful presidential election in March saw 44-year-old Bassirou Diomaye Faye emerge as Africa’s youngest serving head of state.
In a nutshell
- Faye won the election and appointed his populist mentor Ousmane Sonko as prime minister
- Former President Sall conceded to pressure, abandoning his attempt at an unconstitutional third term
- Youth unemployment and inflation loom despite economic growth prospects from oil and gas
After successive worrying signs and rising social and political tensions, the peaceful outcome of the Senegalese presidential elections in March came as a surprise. The 44-year-old Bassirou Diomaye Faye won the ballot, becoming the youngest serving head of state in Africa.
In hindsight, the result can be explained by the convergence of structural and circumstantial factors, including a strong civil society, a depoliticized military, a weakened party hegemony and the decisive electoral success of an urban and populist movement.
Sall explores extension of presidential rule but eventually concedes
The second and final term of former President Macky Sall, who came to power in 2012, ended on April 2. After the constitutional changes introduced under his presidency that limited presidential terms to two five-year mandates, there was no legal way for Mr. Sall to run for a third term.
However, the temptation to remain in power became clear when he announced in 2023 the postponement of elections, initially scheduled for February 2024. He publicly advanced the “resetting the clock” hypothesis: restarting the term count from 2016, when changes were introduced via referendum. While Senegal is one of the most stable democracies in Africa, the specter of “strongman rule” has been present in the country since 1962, when the tensions between President Leopold Senghor and Prime Minister Mamadou Dia resulted in the strengthening of the presidency, to the detriment of legislative power.
The cycle of violence that preceded the March elections peaked in the summer of 2023, when protests and riots resulted in over 60 deaths and 1,000 arrests. Faced with rising contestation, President Sall eventually declared that he would not seek a third term.
However, in February 2024, citing a conflict between the Constitutional Council and the parliament over the candidate list, President Sall announced the launch of a National Dialogue and postponement of the elections. The unprecedented decision was considered unconstitutional and overturned by the Council.
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Faced with pressure from civil society organizations and regional and international actors, including the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the United States, President Sall eventually gave in. After the verdict of the Constitutional Council, he announced a law guaranteeing amnesty to all those who participated in the protests and demonstrations between 2021 and 2024, including security forces and political decision-makers.
Despite his executive experience, the candidate picked by the ruling coalition to succeed Mr. Sall, former Prime Minister Amadou Ba, did not convince important segments of the electorate, nor the coalition itself, that he was the right person for the job. Further eroding Mr. Sall’s influence on presidential succession, the Senegalese Democratic Party (PSD), formerly a main opposition party that has seen its favor wane in recent years, endorsed the main opponent of Amadou Ba. The PSD, led by Abdoulaye Wade, former president of Senegal (2000-2012), announced its support for Mr. Faye after its own candidate, Mr. Wade’s son Karim Wade, was prevented from running. This combination of factors contributed to Mr. Faye’s victory in the first round of the vote.
A populist political brand in Senegal
Perhaps the real winner of the March elections was in fact Ousmane Sonko, founder and main figure of the Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and Fraternity (PASTEF), whom President Faye has since appointed as prime minister.
Founded in 2014, PASTEF embodies a successful populist movement that changed the balance of Senegalese politics. Mr. Sonko became immensely popular among the urban youth through a populist discourse denouncing corruption, the “establishment” and the decay of the political elite. Mr. Sonko has also secured wide support in the region of Casamance. Ideologically, this populist formula is supported by nationalism, socialism and Pan-Africanism, as embodied in the ideas of intellectuals like Cheikh Anta Diop.
Perhaps the real winner of the March elections was in fact Ousmane Sonko.
In the 2019 legislative elections, the party managed to secure 16 percent of the vote. However, in 2021, Mr. Sonko was arrested after being accused of rape by an employee of a beauty salon. The PASTEF leader was judged in absentia and was eventually acquitted of the accusation but condemned for “corrupting the youth.” The events triggered a protest cycle marked by violence, as Mr. Sonko’s supporters accused President Sall, the courts and the security forces of trying to neutralize leading opposition figures. The final years of Mr. Sall’s presidency were characterized by attempts to negate contestation from both the political and civil society spheres by enacting laws restraining free speech and a series of judicial cases targeting the opposition.
After Mr. Sonko’s arrest, PASTEF announced that Mr. Faye, a 44-year-old tax inspector and secretary-general of the party, would be the candidate in the presidential elections. Mr. Faye would later be detained, accused of defamation and undermining state security. Nevertheless, he was released 10 days before the elections, under the amnesty law.
‘Systemic change’
As a new political figure emerging from a new political party, President Faye, in his first official address, promised “systemic change.” The president has adopted a political strategy of selecting members of PASTEF leadership for key political positions, such as prime minister, minister of energy and minister of finance.
The main question now is whether the new executive will maintain the inflammatory tone and disruptive promises that turned Mr. Sonko into a political phenomenon. Some of the ideas touted before the elections included breaking away from the CFA franc, disengaging from France and renegotiating oil, gas and mining contracts.
Facts & figures
The CFA franc zone
The CFA franc zone consists of 14 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, divided into two monetary unions, each with its own common currency.
The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), whose central bank is the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO), includes Benin, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo. Its currency is the West African CFA franc.
The Economic and Monetary Community of Central African States (CEMAC), whose central bank is the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), includes Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and Chad. Its currency is the Central African CFA franc.
However, the president, like his mentor and current prime minister Ousmane Sonko, has since softened his rhetoric, adopting a more conciliatory tone. He is expected to avoid major political disruptions as he tries to navigate a series of challenges.
Among the most pressing issues are youth unemployment and the high cost of living. Over the last decade, the growth of the Senegalese economy averaged nearly 5 percent a year, driven by public spending (especially in major infrastructure projects) but also by foreign direct investment flows, in turn powered by a sound business environment and a high influx of remittances.
Yet despite this relatively favorable macroeconomic context, the youth unemployment rate exceeds 20 percent and inflation has severely affected living conditions.
Scenarios
Two main scenarios should be considered to understand the likely outcomes of the presidential elections in Senegal, both domestically and in terms of its relationships with external actors.
More likely: Cautious continuity
Under a first, more likely, scenario, there will be no radical challenges. This absence of major disruptions will stem from a combination of factors. First, the president does not have, at least for now, a parliamentary majority. PASTEF was dissolved between August 2023 and March 2024. The president could – as allowed by the constitution – dissolve the parliament and schedule legislative elections. But the current absence of a clear majority and the uncertainty regarding the new composition of the parliament will likely disincentivize abrupt changes in the short term.
Moreover, and despite the inflammatory rhetoric which has so far characterized PASTEF, recent oil and gas discoveries will likely contribute to the government taking a more cautious and conciliatory approach toward foreign investors. Oil and gas contracts will be a critical issue for President Faye and Prime Minister Sonko, as oil production is expected to start this year. As promised during the campaign, the government has announced an audit of the oil, gas and mining sectors, though no disruptive changes should be expected. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), oil and gas production should allow Senegal to achieve double-digit economic growth in 2025.
These positive economic prospects will be an advantage for the government as it addresses the challenges of unemployment. President Faye has announced that he will prioritize vocational training and the adjustment of the national curriculum to address the country’s economic needs.
In this context and under this more likely scenario, the new executive in the short to medium term will abstain from breaking away from the CFA, which is pegged to the euro. While a change of currency would be in line with the anti-colonialist and anti-France rhetoric that has characterized the populism of Mr. Faye and Mr. Sonko, it would also be a risky move that could adversely impact the Senegalese economy.
Nevertheless, even in the absence of disruptive change, Senegal will likely adopt a more protectionist approach, impacting the economy as it may hinder much needed innovation, potentially straining relationships with external actors like France, the European Union or the IMF.
Less likely: Radical change
Under a second, less likely, scenario, the new government will unleash radical change, including a change of currency and hostile disengagement from France. This would follow any growth in popular pressures and regional trends as anti-France sentiment increases across sub-Saharan Africa. This could also inspire similar movements, urban and populist, across the continent, namely in countries such as Guinea and Cameroon.
This scenario could also arise as a result of political tensions between the president and the prime minister. While one of the slogans of the campaign was “Faye is Sonko and Sonko is Faye,” competition between the two men for the leadership of this movement, and the country, should not be ruled out.
The less likely scenario of radical change could unleash instability and compromise economic growth in Senegal, preventing the country from reaping the benefits of the demographic dividend and from finally leaving the United Nation’s least developed countries (LDC) category.
Certain: Expanding and reshaping international outreach
Under any scenario, Senegal is set to diversify its international relations, even if relations with France, the EU and the U.S. remain strong. It is important to note that while France has been reducing its presence in Senegal – and with China providing the main source of foreign investment since 2019 – French companies still maintain a strong presence across the Senegalese economy.
Moreover, in line with the protectionist rhetoric of the new executive, Dakar is likely to renegotiate the fishing agreement established with the EU under the Economic Partnership Agreements and to adapt a more vocal approach to migration issues.
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