Singapore carefully balances U.S. and China relationships
Singapore strategically navigates rivalries, maintaining economic ties with China and security cooperation with the U.S. while pursuing its national interests.
In a nutshell
- Strong trade with China underpins growth despite geopolitical tensions
- Cooperation with Washington ensures security of maritime routes
- Neutral diplomacy and multilateral engagement preserve flexibility
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Singapore, the smallest state within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), is at the forefront of technology, education and medicine despite its modest size. The city-state possesses an economy valued at $565 billion, the second-largest gross domestic product (GDP) within the 11-nation bloc.
When it comes to navigating the delicate balance between the United States and China amid escalating geopolitical tensions, Singapore makes use of its safe-haven status among ASEAN states, works with major countries and aligns with none. It is proactive in its dealings with both Beijing and Washington, giving each bilateral relationship a unique focus.
With Beijing, Singapore retains a strong trading relationship. Since 2013, China has been Singapore’s principal commercial partner; in 2025, its exports to China exceeded $70 billion, accounting for 14 percent of its total exports. Moreover, Singapore has been China’s foremost foreign investor since 2013, while Chinese investment into Singapore has been on the rise.
In contrast, Washington remains an essential security partner for Singapore. This security cooperation dates back to the 1990 Memorandum of Understanding, which was renewed in 2019 during the first administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. In 2004, the two countries signed a free trade agreement, and in 2005, they strengthened their defense relationship through the Strategic Framework Agreement, which grants the U.S. military access to Singaporean facilities for vessels, personnel and aircraft. This framework established Singapore as a key American security partner in the region.
The country’s former foreign minister, George Yeo, in 2025, explained Singapore’s mindset: The country accepts the world for what it is and does not try to influence the major powers or their relationships. Singapore, he said, makes a living by “being of service to others,” viewing “the international environment clinically, almost without judgment,” and trying to “stay rational and keep to common sense.”
The outlook from Southeast Asia today
Southeast Asian nations face pressure as they navigate the complex relationship between their primary trading partner, Beijing, and their key security ally, Washington. The escalation of tensions between the two largest global economies is reflected in trade disputes, American tariffs and Chinese limits on some crucial exports.
The U.S. has adopted a more assertive posture toward Beijing since the start of 2025, implementing 55 percent tariffs on Chinese imports (and subsequently threatening to enact 100 percent tariffs in response to China’s restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals, which are critical for high-technology manufacturing). Yet its approach to Singapore – a key trading partner for Beijing − is wholly different. Washington levied its lowest rate of 10 percent on Singapore, placing it among the nations least-tariffed by Washington worldwide despite close financial ties with China.
The country’s location at the crossroads of the South China Sea and Indian Ocean makes it reliant on global commerce and its port ranks as the second-busiest globally, only behind Shanghai. Clearly, a secure and stable maritime route is essential to sustaining its economic stability, yet maritime security competition in the South China Sea heightens the geopolitical tensions Singapore faces.
Beijing has long been expanding its claims to the sea, putting ASEAN members Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines on the defensive. The threat of military mishaps risks drawing regional nations into more direct conflict.
While Singapore does not have any overlapping claims with China, the situation threatens the regional bloc’s unity and the ease with which Singapore trades with the broader global economy. Its port is strategically located at the eastern entrance to the Strait of Malacca, which connects the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. Consequently, the stability of the South China Sea is vital and can significantly influence Singapore’s economy. The country had to scale back its 2025 GDP estimate by 1 percentage point due to the U.S.-China trade complications.
Facts & figures
Singapore at a crucial chokepoint
The nation’s maritime sector accounts for around 7 percent of its GDP and supports approximately 140,000 jobs. As such, continued cooperation with the U.S. military is required to safeguard freedom of navigation and economic strength.
Singapore upholds the international rules-based order and aligns with Washington’s strategic objectives in the South China Sea. The U.S. has also consistently been one of the leading suppliers of advanced military equipment to Singapore.
During a visit to the U.S. in September 2025, Singapore’s Defense Minister Chan Chun Sing toured the Lockheed Martin F-35 production facility in Texas and reiterated Singapore’s intent to procure 20 F-35 fighter aircraft, with the initial delivery anticipated by the end of 2026. The visit underscored the modernization of the Singapore Air Force and the enduring defense collaboration with the U.S. despite its growing trade with China.
Outspoken against Russian aggression
Singapore was outspoken in condemning Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, and issued a strong denunciation of Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Initially, ASEAN’s response to the situation in Kyiv did not explicitly name Russia or include the term invasion in its statement. Conversely, Singapore took a more assertive stance compared to other ASEAN member states, directly naming Russia and condemning the unprovoked military invasion. Singapore is also the sole member of the bloc implementing sanctions on the Kremlin, including financial prohibitions directed at four Russian institutions: VTB Bank, VEB.RF, Promsvyazbank and Bank Rossiya.
Singapore perceives a military invasion by a neighboring state as a threat to its own sovereignty and prosperity.
In response to Moscow’s breach of international law, Singapore, which has infrequently taken measures to enforce unilateral sanctions, enacted export bans to Russia on military equipment, computers, telecommunications and information security.
However, its decision to impose sanctions, as well as its robust support for a rules-based order, should not be interpreted as aligning with the West. As a small nation with a population of 6 million, Singapore perceives a military invasion by a neighboring state as a threat to its own sovereignty and prosperity.
Looking beyond the superpowers
Singapore’s foreign policy extends beyond the major powers and encompasses a diverse network of international allies. The country’s dedication to maintaining a balanced approach is demonstrated through its engagement in multilateral forums, including ASEAN, where it encourages comprehensive economic integration and upholds the group’s ethos of centrality.
Read more on Southeast Asia by Adinda Khaerani Epstein
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Singapore is part of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and was the first to ratify the agreement, which focuses on the burgeoning internal markets of Asia, an essential strategy for diversifying away from trade primarily with China or the West. It reduced tariffs by eliminating them on 92 percent of traded products among the bloc’s member countries. The agreement promotes economic cooperation among its 15 members (ASEAN, Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea), thereby mitigating their susceptibility to American tariffs and other regulatory measures.
Maintaining flexibility in the Indo-Pacific region is further demonstrated by its hosting the annual Shangri-La Dialogue. This event provides a platform for the U.S., the European Union, China and other Asian counterparts to discuss regional security challenges amid ongoing great power competition.
In 2025, French President Emmanuel Macron’s keynote address at the event underscored the EU’s interest in the region’s multilateral forum to address geostrategic competition. It provides smaller nations with a platform to engage with major powers to address security issues without requiring formal alignment.
Scenarios
Likely: Singapore continues its strategy of engagement without alignment
While Singapore is not a party to the South China Sea disputes and is taking a neutral stance, its support for a legally binding Code of Conduct draft that seeks mandatory dispute resolution will likely be at odds with China. This stems from Beijing’s stance, which favors a political document over a legally binding agreement.
Singapore will maintain a neutral foreign policy, refraining from taking sides. China is likely to continue as its major economic partner and the U.S. will supply it with advanced weapon systems.
Multilateral platforms, including ASEAN and the Shangri-La Dialogue, are likely to remain essential for Singapore and Southeast Asia. Forums dedicated to diplomacy and cooperation cannot be easily disregarded by major powers, even under the Trump administration’s strong preference for bilateral engagements.
Unlikely: Singapore gives up its nuanced relationships and chooses a side
The trade challenges between the U.S. and China are unlikely to lead to decoupling between ASEAN and China. Beijing’s role is integrated into the Southeast Asian economy, exemplified by the Belt and Road Initiative, which funds extensive infrastructure projects such as railways, as well as various trade agreements. Singapore itself is also unlikely to decouple from the Chinese economy; its approach is more focused on strategic diversification, such as enhancing relations with RCEP members.
Neither will the country establish a formal military alliance with the U.S. like that of the Philippines, opting instead to preserve strategic autonomy and operate as a neutral, non-aligned state while maintaining robust security partnerships, military access and arms acquisitions. Balancing its relationships with both the U.S. and China safeguards its national interests.
Lacking formal, permanent military alliances, Singapore retains flexibility in its foreign policy decisions, including sanctions against Russia. It is unlikely that nations within a distinct region, such as Europe, can sustain the same level of flexibility without adhering to the principle of non-alignment.
Unlike its ASEAN neighbors, Indonesia and Malaysia, Singapore, to preserve its balancing act, is unlikely to join the BRICS+ grouping, highlighting the differences in national interests and a degree of reliance on the Western-led order.
While the war in Iran − and subsequent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz − has pushed some Southeast Asian countries to potentially pivot toward China due to energy security concerns, Singapore is unlikely to follow suit because navigating between the two major powers is critical to its survival.
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