South Africa-U.S. rift deepens after G20 snub
Diplomatic tensions between Pretoria and Washington continue to worsen, undermining cooperation and isolating Africa’s largest economy.
In a nutshell
- The U.S. G20 boycott and accusations strain relations with South Africa
- Pretoria asserts sovereignty and faces growing isolation from Washington
- Allies express concern, but are unlikely to challenge Washington directly
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In 2025, South Africa became the first African country to host a G20 Leaders’ Summit. What was envisioned as a productive event turned out to be the most tumultuous since the forum was founded in 1999. It came as the United States was embarking on a new policy at odds with South Africa’s views, and the resulting diplomatic deadlock shows no signs of easing. The two countries are likely to persist in challenging competing narratives. As Africa’s largest economy works for stability in a multipolar world, its political parties may continue to defy American interests and face the consequences.
Pretoria began its G20 consultative meetings in January 2025, building toward the headline summit, which was held in November. At the same time, Washington was ushering in the second Donald Trump administration, which would go on to shake multilateral cooperation on a global scale.
The G20 forum was not left unscathed. The Trump administration made it very clear that it intended to boycott the summit in South Africa because, it claimed, Pretoria had taken a wrong turn in its domestic and foreign policy approaches. Since the announcement of the U.S. boycott of the summit, South Africa has had to balance volatile, confrontational American policy on the one hand and asserting its sovereignty on the other.
It has been a difficult period for South Africa, which cast its G20 presidency as an opportunity to demonstrate the importance of Africa and the Global Majority in the evolving global order. Washington, however, aimed to dampen the mood for South Africa’s hosting and has called out the country’s domestic policy shortcomings, including what it believed to be racially motivated land redistribution policies that target a racial minority in the country: White South Africans.
The diplomatic fallout looks set to continue throughout the Trump administration’s tenure.
As the year unfolded, the administration doubled down and afforded White Afrikaners refugee status in the U.S. to avoid claimed “racial persecution” under the South African coalition government led by the African National Congress (ANC).
No amount of fact-checking or repeated statements, even by John Steenhuisen, the White leader of the governing coalition’s second-largest party, could dissuade some in the Trump administration from backtracking on claims that Whites in South Africa face racial genocide. Pretoria had to spend most of the year reacting to Washington’s claims and abrupt policy shifts.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa visited Washington in March 2025 to address the Trump administration’s position, yet it only made things worse. President Ramaphosa and his delegation, comprising both Whites and Blacks, came back from Washington bruised, having been subjected to humiliation in the Oval Office where they were made to watch a video montage supposedly demonstrating evidence of mass killings of White farmers in South Africa.
Washington dismissed Pretoria’s good-faith efforts, and it became clear that the U.S. would not participate in the G20 event.
In the ensuing months, the main task for the Ramaphosa government has been to salvage the summit’s goals and continue with its domestic agenda. The coalition government is moving forward with principles of equality and inclusivity – themes now eschewed by Washington but that remain at the heart of the ANC’s policy direction, despite poor implementation.
The diplomatic fallout looks set to continue throughout the Trump administration’s tenure. After the conclusion of the G20 events in South Africa, the U.S. further escalated tensions by stating that South Africa would not be invited to the upcoming G20 summit in Miami, Florida, later this year.
Can Pretoria’s relationship with Washington be salvaged?
As far as the two capitals are concerned, there seems to be no opportunity to salvage whatever remains of diplomatic ties. While Washington has escalated tensions, Pretoria has not backed down and has indicated the relationship might have reached a dead end.
President Ramaphosa’s response also amounts to an escalation, with Pretoria emphasizing that Washington has no right to unilaterally revoke South Africa’s G20 membership. Some leaders within the European Union, the German chancellor, for example, have voiced reservations about Washington’s decision not to invite Pretoria to this year’s gathering.
Poland, which has been invited by the U.S. to replace South Africa in the G20, raised concerns that its inclusion should not come at South Africa’s expense. Others, including China’s foreign minister, have stated that Washington’s expulsion of South Africa threatens the outlook for multilateral cooperation.
As this unfolds, Pretoria is betting that other G20 participants will try to dissuade Washington from expelling South Africa from the forum. Meanwhile, South African Finance Minister Enock Godongwane has noted that the country’s participation in the international forum cannot be guaranteed. This reality is upsetting for the country’s politicians, and Pretoria, perhaps lacking a strategy of its own, is looking for allies to push back against the Trump administration.
This is a long shot for South Africa that may not yield positive results. The global order is splintering as many countries are focused on their own concerns, with wars in Africa, Europe and the Middle East, and they may lack the capacity to lobby Washington on behalf of South Africa. While global leaders express frustration at South Africa’s expulsion from the G20, it is unrealistic to assume that such sentiments will translate into a willingness to confront the Trump administration on the matter, particularly when national economic and strategic interests are at stake.
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With the U.S. midterm elections coming in November 2026, South Africa may also be hoping for a reprieve if the Democratic Party wins a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Such an outcome could lead Washington to deescalate tensions with South Africa in order to bolster domestic political support. Nevertheless, even that may not happen in time to save South Africa’s participation in this year’s G20.
This strategy of relying on internal U.S. political developments to provide a reprieve for Pretoria carries risks. It assumes that the broader American electorate is both aware of and happy with Pretoria’s diplomatic choices, and recognizes the resulting negative implications on American interests. Additionally, the Trump administration has shown a willingness to move forward with executive orders while not considering how lawmakers may view policy decisions.
Scenarios
Likely: The U.S. and South Africa continue with antagonism
The breakdown in bilateral relations between the two countries looks set to continue as the likely scenario for the next year at least.
The direction of South Africa’s foreign policy is contentious as the ANC grapples with falling domestic political support. The party is dominated by radicals and populists who, at times, see the nation’s interests as having been subdued by dominant global powers such as the U.S. The push for South African assertiveness – sometimes seen as a zero-sum game in relation to Washington or Western interests – will persist. As a result, South Africa will likely continue to challenge the U.S. and its preferences, as it has with the recent decision to expel the Israeli ambassador.
Yet while this offers the ANC a domestic political reprieve, it may result in adverse implications for foreign direct investment in South Africa. Other political parties, such as the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) led by the firebrand Julius Malema, and former President Jacob Zuma’s Umkhonto We Sizwe (MK) party, have also shown a willingness to defy U.S. and Western interests, even when the consequences are adverse for South Africa.
The ANC’s engagement in international forums will only moderate if the balance of power in the country shifts, that is, if the ANC’s political domination further recedes while leading opposition parties, such as the Democratic Alliance (DA), gain more electoral support.
The Trump administration will not relent on pressuring South Africa on what Washington believes is a wrong turn in domestic and foreign policy.
Unlikely: South Africa swallows its pride and concedes to Trump preferences
There is an alternative, though unlikely scenario, in which Pretoria opts to de-escalate diplomatic tensions with Washington, seeking instead to demonstrate a willingness to restore cordial relations with Washington. The two countries engage directly and find mutual interests, including cooperation at international forums including at the 2026 G20 Summit. This will also require that Pretoria improve relations with Israel after South Africa accused it of genocide in Gaza at the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
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