Donald Trump and the art of disruption
President Trump does not want to refine the system – he wants to tear it down and rebuild it on his own terms.
In a nutshell
- President Trump aims to disrupt governance
- Dismantling old political models may prove irreversible
- The U.S. may shift to a leader-driven system
Only a few months into his second term, United States President Donald Trump is already shocking the American establishment, as well as politicians and media the world over. Even the conservatives and libertarians who supported him have been taken by surprise. Along with his advisor, entrepreneur Elon Musk, President Trump seems willing to profoundly disrupt traditional statecraft.
Disruption as a political phenomenon
Elon Musk built his business empire riding the wave of technological disruption. Donald Trump became president twice by claiming he would do things differently from both his Republican and Democratic predecessors. He openly challenged the “deep state” and the international order, vowing to upturn American politics.
Disruption is more than dismantling the existing order. More importantly, it requires building something new in its place. Donald Trump and Elon Musk have promised disruption, and are now following through. The crucial question is what they intend to establish once they have reshaped the political landscape.
There is a well-known saying about understanding the current U.S. president: The biggest mistake is to take him literally rather than seriously. For instance, when he claimed that illegal immigrants were eating Americans’ cats, he was emphasizing, in a provocative way, that illegal immigration poses a threat to American life as people know it. Those who took him literally dismissed his words as populist exaggeration, while those who took him seriously focused on the underlying message.
It is not only the critical press or disingenuous European politicians who misinterpret President Trump – many of his own supporters do as well. Conservatives and libertarians alike often assume he is working to restore a past version of normalcy. Conservatives, in particular, envision a return to the Reagan-era model, where the government focused on security and infrastructure, upheld states’ rights and led a strong Western alliance. Libertarians, meanwhile, hope he will shrink government, improve efficiency and unleash market forces. As a result, many in both groups have been unsettled by his initial actions.
Some of the outcomes these groups hope for may still emerge from Mr. Trump’s presidency, but that is not his primary goal. His embrace of “drain the swamp” rhetoric may have seemed focused on cutting bureaucracy or pushing back against progressive policies. But on a deeper level, it was about something far broader. As a candidate, Mr. Trump used the phrase to capture a wider critique of modern governance. His call to drain the swamp was not just a slogan – it was a declaration of his core objective: disruption.
Disruption by any means
A mix of media imprecision and exaggerated start-up jargon has blurred the real meaning of disruption. At its core, disruption is about dismantling the status quo and establishing a new standard in its place. When fully realized, it makes a return to the previous state impossible; things do not simply revert to how they were. Take smartphones, for example. They disrupted traditional mobile phones. While basic handsets still exist in certain niches, the benchmark for mobile devices is now the smartphone. There is no going back.
A key sign of true disruption is the elimination of features once seen as fundamental to the status quo. While smartphones can still make calls, that function is no longer their primary purpose. The same applies to Elon Musk’s ventures: PayPal enables money transfers without traditional banks, Tesla reimagines mobility without gasoline or many of the components once deemed essential to cars, and SpaceX pursues space travel without government control.
Even if these business models have not yet achieved full disruption, they have the potential to set new standards that reshape entire industries. Banks are adapting to digital transactions, electric mobility is gaining momentum and even traditional automakers are integrating software as a core feature. Meanwhile, private space exploration is expanding. If Mr. Musk successfully disrupts these sectors through technology, traditional banking, gasoline and government-led space missions could become relics of the past.
Donald Trump’s method of disruption is rooted in his “Art of the Deal” philosophy. To him, everything is negotiable, including the rules of negotiation itself. He sees rigid protocols and established practices as obstacles to success and often discards them before engaging in substantive discussions. When he imposes tariffs on trading partners, he shifts the terms of economic negotiations. By discussing Ukraine’s future without close coordination with NATO allies, he unsettles the European Union’s smugness. Meanwhile, his use of executive orders during unconventional press conferences disrupts traditional governance, leaving the bureaucratic establishment on edge.
Trump’s disruptive statecraft
President Trump’s approach to governance is fundamentally disruptive. While his first term fell short of fully realizing this vision, his second term appears more strategic and better equipped for the task. His alliance with Elon Musk represents a partnership between two figures who excel at dismantling the status quo and redefining standards.
If Mr. Trump succeeds, the political landscape will be irreversibly transformed. The New Deal framework, which has shaped U.S. governance since the mid-20th century, will be dismantled. The rules-based international order, often associated with the Washington Consensus, will be upended. More significantly, the disruptions he sets in motion may prove difficult, if not impossible, for his successors to reverse.
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For conservatives and libertarians who support President Trump, it is essential to recognize that he is not merely curbing the excesses of Washington, D.C. Bureaucrats and foreign leaders should understand that he is not just an unpredictable outlier. The media, for once, might exercise some wisdom in looking beyond the caricature of a raging populist or nationalist. Mr. Trump has a clear objective: to overturn every established norm and set a new standard for governance. He seeks to usher in a new era – one built on disruption as a deliberate strategy.
Scenarios
Each scenario outlined here is a preliminary sketch. President Trump’s policies will continue to take shape as disruption unfolds.
Less likely: The Trump administration pursues disruption for its own sake
In this case, the president would remain in a constant state of reassessment, challenging and overturning policies without establishing a clear direction. His administration in Washington would lack continuity, and his approach to international relations would remain unpredictable, leaving both allies and adversaries uncertain about where the U.S. stands.
In this scenario, the coming four years will be a period of constant political turmoil, changing alliances and even whimsical executive orders. This, however, is unlikely. President Trump and Mr. Musk are not anarchists, nor are they interested in constant chaos. They need, at some point, to establish some normalcy since, without it, voters will be frightened, and good deals will not be maintained. If President Trump is a real disruptor, he will understand that after destruction, a new order must emerge.
Likely: The U.S. becomes part of a web of informal networks
In this scenario, the world becomes more U.S.-centered, despite the absence of clear American leadership. Instead of traditional alliances, a web of informal networks emerges, linking states and their leaders in fluid exchanges of ideas, deal-making and global initiatives. The U.S. serves as the central hub for many of these networks, not through structured leadership but as the primary force around which interactions revolve.
Domestically, the U.S. government takes on a similar networked structure, with President Trump and Elon Musk as key focal points. Governance relies on communication within these networks, securing buy-in from influential actors rather than following conventional bureaucratic processes.
Likely: President Trump reshapes the system according to his vision
This scenario is just as likely as the second. Here, the U.S. takes a more aggressively nationally focused stance in international organizations. Even within alliances, Washington becomes less willing to make concessions while demanding more from its partners.
Domestically, the administration adopts a similarly assertive approach, centering decision-making around individuals aligned with the president. Rather than operating within a stable bureaucratic framework, governance is defined by the relentless implementation of President Trump’s ideas, adjusting or bypassing traditional procedures as needed. In this scenario, the system is reshaped to serve the president’s vision, regardless of the structural changes required.
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