Uganda enters a more fragile phase
President Museveni’s rule has proven resilient, but mounting pressures are likely to make the status quo harder to sustain over time.
In a nutshell
- Museveni’s system is backed by security forces and patronage networks
- The country’s young and urban population is receptive to change
- Tensions over succession could eventually unsettle the regime
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At 81 years old, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni was reelected for a seventh term in office – an unsurprising outcome given the country’s history. As also expected, the vote on January 15 was followed by allegations of fraud, post-election violence and repression of the opposition.
The former musician and opposition figurehead Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine, secured 25 percent of the vote according to official results. He has recently fled the country after hiding for two months, and is expected to continue his campaign against the government with the Ugandan diaspora.
While little may change in Uganda in the short term, a mix of domestic pressures could open the door to change in the medium term. Questions over succession, demographic strains, regional tensions and shifts in the international order could all destabilize the status quo.
President for life
President Museveni came to power on January 26, 1986, when the National Revolutionary Army seized Kampala after a five-year guerrilla war. This episode signaled the beginning of a highly centralized authoritarian regime that would last for more than four decades. During the first decade, political parties were banned and national elections were not held. Multiparty politics was restored in 2005, and regular elections have taken place since, though they have been tightly controlled and consistently contested by the opposition.
Over the last 30 years, the Museveni regime has closely mirrored the strategies adopted by other “presidents for life” across the continent, combining tight control over the military, extensive patronage networks and systematic political repression. Like leaders in Burundi, Cameroon, Chad, the Ivory Coast and Rwanda, President Museveni has relied on constitutional engineering to extend his time in power. In 2005, his administration removed term limits, and in 2017, the 75-year age limit on presidential candidates was abolished.
During the 2021 elections, both campaigning and voting were heavily restricted under measures the authorities claimed were needed to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. The aftermath saw widespread repression, with dozens killed and thousands arrested.
A similar pattern followed the January 2026 vote, with a four-day nationwide internet shutdown, arbitrary arrests and violent crackdowns on protesters.
Uganda shows how such regimes endure by balancing rewards and pressure, offering privileged access to resources while maintaining a credible threat of repression and carefully managing support coalitions. Members of parliament, for instance, helped remove constitutional term and age limits, while the military and security forces have been key to containing dissent and deterring mass mobilization.
Divisions and unlocked potential
Uganda is a young country: Its population is expected to increase to 85 million over the next few decades, and the median age is around 17 years. The urban population has been rapidly and steadily increasing, and urban dwellers are expected to account for half of the country’s population within the next 15 to 25 years.
Bobi Wine’s main support base is concentrated among urban youth, a segment of the electorate that is more favorable to political change and therefore less receptive to the National Resistance Movement’s promises of stability and order. Divides between younger and older voters and between rural and urban areas are widening. Ethnicity still shapes political preferences, but it is not the single determining factor either.
In colonial times, the elites were mainly composed of members of the Baganda group, who now account for around 16 percent of the population. Like the Patriotic Front in neighboring Rwanda, the National Resistance Movement has adopted a post-ethnic discourse, yet these divides remain relevant, especially in internal fighting among political elites.
Bobi Wine and his People Power movement reflect a broader shift taking hold across Africa, from Senegal and Kenya to Mozambique and Tanzania. As younger populations grow and the old liberation-era narratives lose their appeal, a new style of politics is emerging.
This often takes a populist form, with disruptive rhetoric, unconventional communication and a claim to speak for younger generations, especially Generation Z, who are increasingly frustrated by political and economic stagnation.
The Ugandan regime is particularly vulnerable to the core claim of populism – that an elite has usurped state power and governs to serve its own interests, rather than for the common good. The narrative resonates in a country where corruption is often seen as a central obstacle to political change and economic growth. According to information released by the Office of the Inspector General of Government, corruption costs the Ugandan economy around $2.4 billion per year.
Patronage networks have also become a major source of inefficiency, as most posts in the public service are not filled on the basis of merit. According to a 2025 survey conducted by Afrobarometer, of the respondents who had contacted public services in the previous year, 76 percent said they had to pay a bribe to obtain police assistance, and 51 percent paid bribes to obtain official documents.
Oil discoveries
A key turning point came in 2006, with the discovery of an estimated 6.5 billion barrels of oil in the Albertine Graben region. The findings raised high expectations, but progress has been slow. The first production licenses were only issued in 2016, and commercial output is now expected to begin later in 2026.
Oil discoveries prompted substantial investment in major infrastructure projects, including the 1,443-kilometer East African Crude Oil Pipeline, which connects oil fields in Uganda to the Port of Tanga in Tanzania and a planned refinery in Uganda. The Uganda Oil Refinery has faced repeated delays, but is now expected to start operating in 2026, following a $4 billion refinery agreement concluded in late 2025 between United Arab Emirates‑based Alpha MBM Investments and the Uganda National Oil Company.
Uganda shows how such regimes endure by balancing rewards and pressure, offering privileged access to resources while maintaining a credible threat of repression.
Oil discoveries, related investments and the long-delayed start of production have skewed incentives in a system already shaped by weak institutions, corruption and entrenched patronage networks. The 2022 discovery of large gold deposits has only deepened these dynamics.
Gold has become a major source of revenue and export income, reaching $1.2 billion in 2023, but much of it is sourced and mined in neighboring countries rather than in Uganda itself.
Strategic geopolitical ambiguity
The competition between great and middle powers in Africa will shape Uganda’s political outlook. Over the last two decades, China has become a key source of foreign direct investment, financing projects like the Karuma Hydropower Station and the expansion of the Entebbe Airport. Relations with Russia have also strengthened since 2022, as evidenced by several high-level visits and the announcement of a $100 million donation to the Ugandan military.
Relations with the United States deteriorated during the Biden administration. Tensions increased after political repression in 2021 and reached a peak in 2023, after the passing of the Anti-Homosexuality Act by the Ugandan Assembly. Uganda was subsequently removed from the African Growth and Opportunity Act trade agreement. In January 2026, the deal was extended for a three-year period, but Uganda was not reincluded.
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However, Kampala remains an important ally for the U.S.’s commercial and security strategy in Eastern and Central Africa. A recent rapprochement between the U.S. and Uganda reflects the Trump administration’s transactional approach to foreign policy. The two countries announced a deal under which Uganda will receive third-country nationals who face deportation from the U.S. in exchange for better trade terms.
Scenarios
Most likely in the short term: Status quo and political repression
In the short to medium term, significant political change remains unlikely due to the high costs of dissent and collective mobilization. Although Uganda’s constitution formally guarantees the right to peaceful protest, the close alignment between the regime and the security forces renders public contestation a risky endeavor.
Most likely in the medium to long term: Destabilization
Change will become harder to contain over time. A young, growing and more urban population will add pressure, just as tensions are likely to rise within the ruling coalition over President Museveni’s eventual succession. His son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, now head of the armed forces, is positioning himself as a potential successor.
In a system built on patronage, and in a country that has known only one leader for decades, a smooth democratic transition will be difficult to achieve. Without a credible alternative, Uganda could follow a path similar to Zimbabwe, where leadership change does little to alter the country’s political and economic trajectory.
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