ECONOMYFebruary 26, 2026

 U.S.-Saudi transactional ties and strategic ambitions 

Giorgio Cafiero 

Reading time: 8 min

Relations between Riyadh and the White House are warming, driven by different but complementary objectives.

Throughout the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term, United States-Saudi relations gained new momentum. Mr. Trump’s visit to Riyadh during his May 2025 Gulf tour produced agreements worth at least $300 billion, mostly in defense and artificial intelligence. Six months later came a landmark visit to Washington by Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (known as MbS), which culminated in Saudi Arabia’s designation as a “major non-NATO ally,” as well as a Strategic Defense Agreement and plans to sell F-35 fighter jets to Riyadh.  

For Mr. Trump, the partnership remains fundamentally transactional, focused on securing U.S. economic growth, technology transfer and high-value business deals. For Saudi Arabia, and for MbS in particular, the relationship carries broader strategic significance: It is central to Riyadh’s effort to elevate its international standing and to be recognized by all major powers, including the U.S., as an indispensable actor on the world stage. 

Trump’s priorities: Investment, defense and countering China 

One of Mr. Trump’s primary motivations for strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia is economic. He seeks to attract substantial foreign direct investment to spur job creation in the U.S. The White House has emphasized MbS’s pledge to expand Saudi investment in the U.S. to as much as $1 trillion, particularly in defense, energy, infrastructure and technology. 

For the Trump administration, these sweeping agreements with the Saudi Kingdom are framed as major victories for the MAGA agenda, reinforcing claims of economic revitalization and gains for American workers. Highly publicized investment figures, sometimes exaggerated for political effect, feed a broader narrative of Mr. Trump as a dealmaker delivering tangible economic results in his second term. The Trump family is also linked to Saudi Arabia through business interests, reflecting Mr. Trump’s long-standing tendency to blur the line between his personal financial interests and those of the U.S. 

Defense cooperation is also central to Mr. Trump’s push to strengthen U.S.-Saudi relations. His administration has committed to a $142 billion arms package for Riyadh and approved the sale of F-35 fighter jets. The White House views expanded security ties as a means to boost U.S. defense industries while advancing American strategic interests in the Middle East, particularly in the context of competition with China. 

As Saudi Arabia deepens its ties with Beijing, a key strategic driver of Mr. Trump’s outreach to Riyadh is the U.S. interest in curbing China’s influence through closer economic and security alignment with Washington. Like his predecessor, the American leader has sought to redirect Saudi investment toward U.S. defense, energy and technology firms rather than Chinese markets. 

Saudi priorities: Recognition, influence and regional leverage 

Under MbS’s leadership, Saudi Arabia seeks recognition from Washington as an indispensable partner in the Middle East and beyond. This aspiration stands in sharp contrast to the “pariah” image the Kingdom acquired in the West after the Jamal Khashoggi murder and the Saudi-led war in Yemen. 

Saudi Arabia appears determined to position itself as Washington’s most trusted partner in the Middle East, even eclipsing Israel. Saudi officials view Israel’s regional conduct as destabilizing and at odds with the Trump administration’s emphasis on the stability needed to advance trade, investment and commercial ties. Ultimately, Riyadh seeks to become the central pillar of U.S. foreign policy in the region. 

Regional conflicts: Alignment and leverage in the Middle East 

In recent years, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have cooperated diplomatically on conflicts not only in the Middle East but also in Africa and Europe. Although their positions have often diverged, Riyadh has used the promise of business opportunities to encourage the Trump White House to recalibrate elements of U.S. foreign policy in ways that advance Saudi interests. Given the highly transactional nature of both sides, the Kingdom has made the most of its economic resources and diplomatic influence to demonstrate its value as a partner to Washington. 

One of Saudi Arabia’s most notable diplomatic successes in 2025 came five months after the fall of Syria’s former regime. MbS, working alongside Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, persuaded Mr. Trump that lifting U.S. sanctions on Damascus was essential. Washington later repealed sanctions, reflecting MbS’s argument that Syria’s recovery and its shift toward greater alignment with U.S. interests depended on removing Assad-era sanctions that were crippling its economy. Looking ahead, Riyadh will likely keep pushing the Trump administration to apply greater pressure on Israel to curb its military incursions and land theft in Syria, which Saudi Arabia and other Arab partners view as detrimental to reconstruction and long-term peace and security. 

MbS also used his November 2025 visit to Washington to push Sudan onto Mr. Trump’s agenda. As a result, the Trump administration is expected to devote greater diplomatic effort in 2026 to ending the Sudanese civil war, highlighting once again how MbS’s personal rapport with Mr. Trump has shaped U.S. policy across the Arab-Islamic world. Riyadh views the United Arab Emirates’ support for the Rapid Support Forces as a threat not only to Sudan, but also to Saudi interests in the Red Sea basin and to Saudi Arabia itself. It wants to draw the White House closer to the positions of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar and Turkiye rather than Abu Dhabi. 

Saudi Arabia also seeks U.S. support for the territorial integrity of Yemen and Somalia. The Kingdom opposes efforts by Israel and the UAE to empower separatist movements, including Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council (STC) and Somalia’s self-declared breakaway Republic of Somaliland. Riyadh seeks to ensure Washington continues to recognize and support Yemen and Somalia’s internationally recognized governments, resisting initiatives that would further fragment these fragile states. 

More by Middle East expert Giorgio Cafiero

• Azerbaijan’s strategic reentry into post-Assad Syria
• High-stakes diplomacy in U.S.-Iran standoff

While Saudi Arabia continues to perceive Iran as a threat and remains skeptical of Tehran’s intentions in the Arab world, the two historical rivals have maintained a cautious detente for nearly three years, proving capable of carefully mitigating and managing bilateral tensions. Riyadh seeks to prevent the U.S.-Israeli alliance from provoking Iran in ways that could trigger retaliation against Gulf states, like the Iranian strikes on U.S. air force assets in Qatar’s al-Udeid Air Base in June. For Saudi officials, strengthening the Trump-brokered Iran-Israel ceasefire and resolving issues around the Iranian nuclear program through diplomacy rather than force are key priorities. A major concern for 2026 is that the U.S. could enable, if not outright encourage, Tel Aviv to resume the Twelve-Day War of June 2025, potentially jeopardizing Saudi security and threatening the long-term success of its Vision 2030 economic diversification agenda. 

Gaza and the question of Israeli normalization remain sensitive issues in U.S.-Saudi relations. Saudi officials have strongly condemned Israel for what MbS has called genocide in Gaza and maintains that it will only move toward normalization once a sovereign Palestinian state is established (or at least significant progress is achieved in that direction), putting it at odds with the White House’s push for Saudi Arabia’s swift entry into the Abraham Accords. Riyadh supports the tenuous “ceasefire” of October 10, 2025, and Trump’s 20-point initiative, viewing it as flawed but also as the only current path toward de-escalation and a potential future Palestinian state.  

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