Voter preferences are shifting in South Africa
The Democratic Alliance has surpassed the ANC in popularity for the first time amid calls for progress and accountability.
In a nutshell
- April polls show the Democratic Alliance leading the ANC for the first time
- Misgovernance, corruption and waning trust hinder the ANC-led coalition
- The DA’s growing appeal signals a possible shift ahead of 2029 elections
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For the first time in South Africa’s modern era, a party other than the traditional hegemon now garners the most public support, and a period of dynamic political jockeying is set to unfold in the continent’s biggest economy. According to April opinion polls on voter preferences in South Africa released by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR), the Democratic Alliance (DA) has come out as the most favorable political party; surpassing the dominant African National Congress (ANC) among a majority of likely voters in the country.
While polls do not give a definitive picture regarding what would happen if the elections were to be held in the near future, the IRR opinion poll is noteworthy because never before in the past 30 years of democracy in South Africa has any political party measured above the ANC when it comes to domestic political support.
The key takeaway is that now, a political party other than the ANC − the party that led the liberation movement that ended the apartheid system − has a realistic chance of garnering the most votes, a feat unmatched since the establishment of democracy in South Africa in 1994.
Now, a political party other than the ANC has a realistic chance of garnering the most votes, a feat unmatched since the establishment of democracy in South Africa in 1994.
This signals a major development in South Africa’s political landscape. The country’s electorate for the first time is seriously considering an alternative type of politics not dominated by the ANC that is centered on socioeconomic concerns rather than identity-based grievances.
This then begs several questions: How realistic is this poll? Could the evolving civic situation bring about a meaningful shift in South Africa’s political trajectory? In what direction may the country be headed?
The ANC achieved much, but is losing its relevance
Post-independence politics in South Africa has been completely dominated by the ANC. But in recent years, the party has struggled to maintain its position amid allegations of corruption, cronyism and short-sighted populism. The general elections held in May 2024 deposed the ANC as the sole ruling party, as it failed to attain an outright majority to form government. This resulted in the ANC having to form a coalition government.
The party has been deaf to the reality that it is no longer entrusted with a mandate to govern alone. Since the formation of the ruling coalition, dubbed the “South African Government of National Unity,” following the May 2024 elections, the party’s leadership has instead shown disdain for its coalition partners and routinely makes critical policy decisions without meaningfully consulting them despite their legitimate role in government.
Although the DA is a major coalition partner that brought much-needed support to enable a coalition to take shape last year, the ANC treats the DA as a junior partner and has repeatedly blamed them for holding the government hostage by delaying key policy decisions.
Facts & figures
ANC history in a nutshell
The ANC has roots in South African politics long predating the end of apartheid.
It originated as a successor of the Cape Colony’s Imbumba Yamanyama organization, which was founded as the South African Native National Congress in Bloemfontein on January 8, 1912, and was renamed the African National Congress in 1923.
The party has long considered itself as a broad church/big tent grouping that welcomes disparate elements of South African society with the common goals of democracy, emancipation and justice.
Its notable leaders included Oliver Tambo, a South African anti-apartheid politician and activist who served as ANC president from 1967 to 1991.
In the April 1994 elections that ushered in a new era in the country’s history, the ANC won an overwhelming 62.65% of the vote, and Nelson Mandela was elected president. Mr. Mandela, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, held the presidency for five years.
The ANC had dominated national politics as a single-party government for 30 years, until the landmark May 2024 vote which heralded the return of coalition governance in South Africa.
Some senior ANC leaders, notably its Deputy President Paul Mashatile, have dared the DA to leave the coalition government if the party is unhappy. The ANC has been insisting that it represents an overwhelming majority of voters in South Africa, despite the current polling and the reality of the 2024 elections that gave the ANC only 40 percent of the vote, a major implosion from the 58 percent attained in the 2019 general elections.
This decline should have sent a strong message to the ANC that business-as-usual no longer applies when it comes to political decision-making processes. Nevertheless, the party is in denial and continues to sideline its coalition partners, turning a blind eye to widespread corruption amid a declining economy and a tense geopolitical climate. The South African government has seen aid from the United States halted and baseless claims from U.S. President Donald Trump about violence and genocide against white South Africans.
The IRR poll showed that the DA commands 30.3 percent of likely voter support, while the ANC garnered 27.7 percent. Other small opposition parties share the fragmented remainder. The ANC has never polled neck-and-neck with the DA, which was founded in 2000, nor any other opposition party in the past, despite intensified corruption and misgovernance under the ANC throughout the last decade.
Acquaintances of former President Jacob Zuma (2009-2018) of the ANC were implicated in various instances of graft, bribery and illegally securing state contracts. A Judicial Commission of Enquiry into Allegations of State Capture was established to counter the trend. It unearthed how one family close to Mr. Zuma was behind a multi-billion rand graft scandal across government departments and some state owned entities such as the electricity generating company Eskom. There is also deep concern that the ANC under Mr. Zuma allowed private individuals to influence senior appointments in state administration.
South Africa reconsiders its path
The current issue is not about whether a majority of voters are willing to move away from the ANC and consider an alternative, as voters have already done that. It is rather a matter of how this trend in public preference will continue to unfold and what are the implications of this shift on governance. The ANC is fully aware that it would have to undergo a massive renewal to win back the voters it has lost, and party leaders have indicated the need for introspection but not yet put forward solutions.
The ascension of Cyril Ramaphosa to lead the party in 2017 and subsequently take the country’s presidency, replacing Jacob Zuma, was heralded as a moment that could bring about renewal of the ANC.
Hopes abounded that Mr. Ramaphosa’s leadership would help the party rebuild trust with voters and key stakeholders such as the business community after state looting scandals under the administration of former President Zuma. Having had to return from business and take up the leadership of the party and the country after Mr. Zuma’s disastrous leadership, President Ramaphosa punted on the issue of the party renewing its mission and ridding itself of corrupt elements personified by Mr. Zuma, whose rule has often been described as state capture.
President Ramaphosa’s project to refocus the ANC has not succeeded; it is under his leadership that the party lost an outright majority, reflecting the party’s intensifying downward trajectory.
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Since then, the ANC has had to face the reality that it is no longer governing alone and its decisions in the unity government will increasingly have to pass through the filter of other coalition parties. So far, the ANC has ignored this reality, singlehandedly forcing through controversial laws such as the Expropriation Act 2024, and the National Health Insurance Bill, much to the dissatisfaction of the DA and other parties in the coalition.
Looking to appease the radical nationalist political groupings outside the coalition government, the ANC’s persistence on a populist policy path is also aimed at maintaining the image that it still stands with the majority of the impoverished black electorate who have historically supported the party. The public support for radical leftist populist parties such as the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and MK (Umkhonto weSizwe) is too fragmented to help the ANC in forming a formidable leftist block that could fend off the electoral bludgeoning from DA. Most of the radical left-leaning parties are in fact splinters from the ANC and do not appeal to voters as a meaningful alternative, neither do they make for credible potential allies.
Facts & figures
The Democratic Alliance at a glance
Since its founding in 2000, the DA has been the second-largest party, is broadly centrist, and often promotes center-right and business-friendly policy.
The party comes from the lineage of the anti-apartheid Progressive Party, founded in 1959. It has promoted neoliberalism, social liberalism, classical liberalism and conservative liberalism.
The DA’s voter base is predominantly the Afrikaans and English-speaking population, white South Africans, older voters and the Indian and Coloured communities. “Coloured” in South African refers to non-black, non-white and non-Indian multiracial people whose ancestry descends from Europeans, Africans and Asians.
The DA currently has a tough-on-crime policy seeking to increase the number of police officers, and social policy aiming to reduce poverty. It also claims it seeks to improve health and education outcomes while boosting the economy through international best practices.
With the DA polling higher than the ANC, it should be clear to the ANC that it has lost the historic moral high ground in the country. In the past year, the DA has been gaining traction as a party that can be trusted to tread a different path for the country.
The DA successfully challenged the ANC’s decision to raise value added tax (VAT), which may endear the party to the poor, who are battling with the rising cost of living and high unemployment amid a stagnant economy, and also has sought improvements to the budget. The DA has managed to attain this without having to exit the coalition, despite the ANC’s overtures that the DA should leave the coalition if it is not willing to go along with ANC-dominated policies.
Scenarios
Highly likely: The ANC in steady decline and the DA will prevail by 2029
The ANC is undergoing internal leadership contests. President Ramaphosa’s tenure as the leader of the party ends in 2027 and his term in office as president ends in 2029, when South Africa will hold its next general elections. Amid rising pressure from the populist factions within the ANC, President Ramaphosa may even lose the presidency in 2027, before the regular presidential term concludes.
With Mr. Ramaphosa out of the way and the ANC taken over by a populist faction led by the current Deputy President Paul Mashatile, the party’s electoral decline will accelerate toward the 2029 elections. The DA will emerge stronger as an alternative to the ANC and the ANC’s renewal project would most likely have failed. The DA will then emerge as the dominant party in the 2029 elections.
This scenario hinges on the DA’s ability to implement policies that demonstrate the party also stands with the majority of the poor, instead of a party that only focuses on the interests of business and the private sector.
Given the political trajectory followed by the ANC, characterized by the decline of state capacity and widespread corruption and compromised leaders, it will be an uphill climb for the DA to improve the quality of life of the poor and deliver economic growth to benefit the majority in South Africa, which is primarily impoverished voters.
Highly unlikely: The ANC renews, eliminates corruption and keeps power
If the ANC’s renewal project is successful and weeds out corruption in government, which is a highly unlikely scenario, it would restore the party’s push to rebuild its credibility and integrity. This would lead to improvements in government efficiency, boosting civic confidence in how decisions are made by government.
Toward the end of his term as both the leader of the ANC and the president of the country, Mr. Ramaphosa could address the scourge of corruption within the ANC and across government and heed voters’ will. That would require his rejection of populist decisions recently made by the ANC despite the party’s claims that such policies are necessary to undo the apartheid legacy that continue to negatively affect the least affluent.
Instead of focusing on political expediency and his own survival as a leader, President Ramaphosa could set the stage for the party to elect credible leadership in its next elective conference to be held in 2027. Such a move could hold back the rapid electoral decline currently experienced by the party as shown in the 2024 election and 2025 polling, which both show the party faring badly compared with just five years ago.
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