Redefining America
After a 20-year run as the world’s hegemonic power, the United States is retrenching. The Trump administration accelerated this process, answering China’s disruptive rise with an economic and military challenge, and using similar confrontational tactics with Iran. Domestically, the U.S. is doubling down on its faith in small government. American bilateralism’s key risk is estranging long-time partners needed to sustain its preeminence.
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GIS Dossier: Global trade tensions worsen
Nobody is interested in setting off a trade war, but the trade liberalization process has ground to a halt. The U.S. is not the only guilty party: none of the biggest trading nations has abided by the principle of free trade. Also, many smaller countries are free riders on the system. ...
As the U.S. ratchets up pressure on China, the trade war may return
The Phase One trade agreement between the U.S. and China, signed in January shortly before the coronavirus pandemic, ended two years of a disruptive “trade war” between the two countries. As anti-China sentiment in the U.S. grows and the presidential campaign heats up, the deal may prove short-lived.
The U.S. will stay active on the arms control front
While arms control is unlikely to play an important role in the lead-up to the 2020 elections, the issue could resurface shortly after. The current administration is dissatisfied with the New START Treaty, from which the U.S. is likely to withdraw if President Trump is reelected. There has also been ...
COVID-19 and the future of central banking
As the coronavirus pandemic freezes large swaths of the economy, the world’s three most important central banks find themselves under tremendous political pressure to flood the markets with easy money again. Their approaches may prove significantly different.
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More Disruptions
Expanding state
A trend toward increased government influence in economies and personal life is curbing growth, and freedom, in many Western countries. The outsized role of government results in misplaced incentives, overregulation – which restrains markets and competition – and irresponsible budgetary ...
Middle East politics
The region, one of the cradles of civilization, is going through a turbulent period of historic realignment. Its powers are vying for political, military, economic and religious dominance with local players and outside actors. Armed conflicts, mainly civil wars, are ...
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