Burundi’s downward spiral
President Pierre Nkurunziza’s grip on power has divided Burundian society to the point where armed opposition groups are in open conflict with forces loyal to the regime. Violence against civilians has forced thousands to flee their homes. The economy has been hit hard as well. But the fragmentation of the opposition and Burundi’s involvement in critical peacekeeping missions means Mr. Nkurunziza has the upper hand, for now.
GIS Dossier: Europe’s migration impasse
The steady flow of migrants from the Middle East and Africa suddenly exploded in 2015 into the greatest crisis of its kind in Europe since World War II. How this happened and what the EU and national governments ought to do about it is examined in this survey of work by GIS experts.
Jordan’s admirable stability – can it last?
Surrounded by a sea of instability and with few natural resources, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has its share of challenges. So far, however, it has met them with considerable success. Western assistance has helped, especially support from the United States. But Jordan’s leaders – first King Hussein and now King Abdullah II – carefully steered the country toward peaceful coexistence and even security cooperation with Israel, while keeping terrorism at bay. The question is whether this linchpin of the Middle East can continue to hold.
Algeria: A European crisis in the making
Algeria's perennial problems are reaching crisis levels. The economic outlook is so dire that street violence is a distinct possibility. Its political scene is paralyzed by a seemingly endless succession crisis involving the ailing 78-year-old president, Abdulaziz Bouteflika. Legislative elections earlier this month did nothing to stop the drift. If unrest breaks out, a descent into civil war cannot be excluded, and Europe would face a new regional crisis of the first order.
African migration and the EU’s response
Migration from Africa to Europe is here to stay. Though the EU has undertaken many measures to stem the tide, demographic and economic realities ensure that those measures will be insufficient. African economies cannot absorb their growing workforce, and in fact benefit from diasporas in Europe. Putting up fences will only make the problem worse.
Addressing migration requires stability in North Africa
German Chancellor Angela Merkel traveled to Egypt earlier this month to lend her support to the government of President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi. She seems to be the only European leader willing to address the problem of migration from Africa. Stability in North Africa is vital to European interests – but it must avoid making the wrong assessments out of naive sentiments again, and instead take a more realistic view.
Global Outlook 2017: Sub-Saharan Africa
Political instability will be the norm for sub-Saharan Africa in 2017. Crises will range from rocky political transitions to mass protests, electoral violence and – in the worst case – even genocide. The region faces these challenges at a time when realpolitik is replacing liberalism.
Europe’s perilous paths forward
Britain's decision to leave the European Union has thrown the future of the bloc into question, and the reactions are disheartening: while European leaders call for more power, ordinary citizens view Brussels with growing suspicion. The EU’s options are to become more centralized, more fragmented or more cooperative – whether it survives in the longer term depends on which path it takes.