Reports

Portugal is key to China’s Euro-African strategy
Like a white knight, China stepped in after Portugal’s 2011 bankruptcy with billions of dollars in investment. After centuries of trade and cultural exchange, it helped the relationship between the two countries flourish. Now China sees Portugal as a crucial cog in its strategy to exert influence and expand trade ...


Mozambique: From hope to escalating risks
Mozambique is facing one of its most difficult moments since its independence in 1975. A wave of Daesh-linked terrorism in the country’s north, ongoing since 2017, has worsened, with hundreds of thousands displaced. The country’s security forces have been ineffective, leaving foreign entities from Russia and elsewhere to step in and ...


Mozambique: The biggest corruption case in Africa
A $2 billion corruption scandal continues to upend the political and economic landscape in Mozambique. Manuel Chang, the former finance minister, has been arrested by U.S. authorities along with several co-conspirators. His legal fate, which now hangs in the balance in South Africa, will have major repercussions in his home ...


Angola’s new leader reaches out to the West for help
Angola has recently become one of the most stable countries in sub-Saharan Africa. It now hopes to rebuild its agriculture, education and navy, as well as jump-start investment in the oil sector and broaden its foreign relations base to include Western powers – all before deteriorating living conditions turn the ...


Saudi Arabia’s key role in the Middle East
Journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder has upset the Middle East’s geopolitical balance in two dimensions: the three-sided rivalry between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and the conflict between the Muslim Brotherhood and stable monarchies in the region. For the Saudis, the crisis poses an unexpected opportunity to improve governance. For the ...


Mozambique’s economic recovery faces tough challenges
Despite the untimely death of the leader of its opposition movement, Mozambique has managed to implement changes that will end years of political violence. The country is rich in natural gas and has plenty of agricultural potential, but a financial scandal and terrorism in its northern provinces are holding it ...


Saudi Arabia and the UAE have diverging goals in Yemen
The United Arab Emirates is part of a Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis in Yemen. But recently, it has become clear that Abu Dhabi’s and Riyadh’s goals are diverging. While both the Emiratis and Saudis want to roll back Iran’s growing influence in the region, the UAE wants to divide ...


Scenarios for Chad’s President Idriss Deby
Chad’s President Idriss Deby leads an authoritarian government that is increasingly under pressure, both politically and economically. However, his regime has been a strong ally of the West. A new constitution that strengthened his grip on power was approved this year, but it could, ironically, further undermine his legitimacy.


Opinion: Turkey changing the dynamics in the Horn of Africa
Late last year, Turkey secured the lease of an island on Sudan’s Red Sea coast. The location of this ancient port – situated on one of the world’s most important trade arteries – will put Ankara in a position to exercise much greater influence from the Nile to the Persian ...


Geopolitics and Saudi Arabia’s cash flow
The Gulf states have not sufficiently adjusted their spending patterns to lower income from oil exports. Burdened by persistent and growing budget deficits, they are increasingly hard pressed to fend off geopolitical rivals such as Iran. The trend has serious and lasting consequences for the Middle East and North Africa.


Mugabe is out, but his power structure remains
Robert Mugabe lost Zimbabwe’s presidency to his former right-hand man Emmerson Mnangagwa in a coup prepared jointly by the military and one of the ruling party’s factions. The new ruling team is more focused on defending its power and privileges in the impoverished country than on addressing its profound problems.


Opinion: New president, new prospects in Angola
Joao Lourenco, Angola’s new president and a long-time insider of its power structure, has taken decisive steps during his first 50 days in office to put the naturally endowed African country on a course to economic recovery, and possibly a political reorientation.


Elections kick off Angola’s leadership transition
Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos is stepping down after 38 years in office – one of Africa’s rare elder statesmen who relinquishes power voluntarily. His designated successor, Joao Lourenco, handily won a surprisingly peaceful general election. Now he must balance factions in the ruling party, the needs of an ...


Zimbabwe’s pivotal moment
Zimbabwe’s deepening economic crisis have led to protests of unprecedented intensity against the regime of President Robert Mugabe. However, the opposition is divided, and Mr. Mugabe still has plenty of tricks up his sleeve. If the coalition of opposition parties can remain unified, it has a chance of unseating the ...


From gas to governance: Mozambique’s slippery slope
Mozambique's dreams of gas riches moved closer to reality this month with the signing of an $8 billion LNG export project led by Italy’s Eni in cooperation with Exxon Mobil. The timing could not be better for a desperately poor country whose success story has gone sour amid a massive ...


Will South Africa’s president survive the latest political storm?
South African President Jacob Zuma’s ill-advised government reshuffle and influence peddling scandals have alarmed financial markets, angered the opposition and put the country’s political system to its hardest test in decades. Even if Mr. Zuma manages to weather the crisis, he will emerge from it battered and at the mercy ...


Angola: leadership change and the risks ahead
It is now certain that Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos will not run in this year’s elections. The transition of power will offer the country a chance to begin to reform kleptocratic state institutions and address huge social and economic crises. The question is how much support dos Santos ...


Crisis in the DRC
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been one of Africa’s most troubled states since it won independence from Belgium in 1960. Perhaps fittingly, its latest crisis was defused by a last-minute agreement on New Year’s Eve between President Joseph Kabila and the opposition. Will it last?


Mozambique looks for a way out of crises
Mozambique, once held up as a model country for the way it ushered in peace and reconciliation after a long civil war, now faces a new round of potential crises – from a huge corruption scandal, to fiscal instability, to a possible return of civil war. However, with new international ...


Trump or Clinton? For Africa, there’s not much difference
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump’s campaigns are both missing an Africa strategy. But with Chinese activity in Africa ramping up, the next leader of the free world may have to come up with one quickly. Expect a President Trump to forcefully challenge Chinese strategy in the continent, while a President ...


Angola girds for political transition
Angola’s President Jose Eduardo dos Santos has announced he will retire in 2018. Potential successors include the country’s defense minister and the general secretary of the ruling party – both longtime dos Santos allies. Whether the transition will be smooth depends on how the economy fares and the new leadership’s ...


Failed coup transforms Turkey’s geopolitics
Turkey’s geopolitical outlook has changed drastically in the aftermath of the failed coup there this summer. The military has been deprived of many experienced officers and has lost Turkish society’s trust. Domestic sectarian tensions are heating up. Internationally, certainties about Turkey’s alliances have suddenly become doubtful: Ankara’s burgeoning partnership with ...


Debt, violence risk instability for Mozambique
The revelation of billions of dollars in secret debt and a resurgence of violence have plunged Mozambique into a two-pronged crisis that puts President Filipe Nyusi between a rock and a hard place. With the country’s renewed instability threatening a slide into civil war, Mr. Nyusi is under pressure to ...


South Africa: faded dreams, difficult choices
Slowly but inevitably, South Africa is approaching the end of a political era as veterans of the anti-apartheid struggle face increasing criticism from voters. The country’s mismanaged economy and a widespread realization that the ruling African National Congress has not delivered on its promise of a more equal and unified ...
