Reports

U.S. and North Korea: Restart of talks, but to what end?
The Trump administration had demonstrated a willingness to return to the negotiating table with North Korea. Pyongyang, however, continues to test the American commitment to a deal that would require complete denuclearization. In October, a technical negotiation between the two sides ended without progress. The North Korean strategy may be ...


The U.S.-Taliban peace process: Uncertain but not moribund
The Trump administration’s long-standing policy on Afghanistan has been that a lasting settlement there will require the involvement of the Taliban. In September, however, talks between the two sides broke down. National Security Advisor John Bolton resigned, and more personnel changes are rumored to be in the offing. With an ...


U.S. immigration and border security policy headed toward a crossroads
During President Donald Trump’s first term in office, immigration and border policy have become hot-button issues. The administration’s aggressive enforcement of border security has created a backlash in the Democratic Party, which is now leaning toward decriminalizing illegal entry. The future of immigration in the U.S. will be shaped by ...


The U.S. and the new great power paradigm
According to the U.S.’s National Security Strategy, great power competition is back. That this is the geopolitical reality is a rare conclusion that both Republicans and Democrats agree on. The paradigm is therefore likely to outlast President Trump and shape American foreign policy for the foreseeable future.


The age of U.S. interventionism may not be over
President Trump has made it clear he wants to avoid military intervention but has shown a willingness to use force when necessary. Even then, he prefers non-escalatory measures. Moreover, America’s most significant competitors also want to avoid military confrontation. But others could find benefit in drawing the U.S. into a ...


The U.S.-German rapport: the transatlantic X-factor
German-American relations are at a low ebb. As seen from Washington, Germany is consumed by internal political strife and incapable of acting as a reliable partner in transatlantic policy. So, for the next few years at least, the United States intends to manage bilateral relations on a transactional basis. At ...


Post-Mattis uncertainty and the future of U.S. defense policy
Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan is not expected to reverse his predecessor’s key Pentagon policies, such as Gen. James Mattis’ signature program to improve force readiness, but he will not be as effective as his predecessor in explaining the vagaries of U.S. policies to allies abroad. Also, President Donald ...


2019 Outlook: U.S. foreign policy to stay the course
Unconventional as his leadership style may be, President Donald Trump, succeeded in 2018 in getting both U.S. allies and competitors to pay serious attention to his foreign policy agenda. His administration is undaunted in pursuing U.S. policy goals despite replacements of key officials in the president’s national security apparatus. Mr. ...


The U.S. and Canada: chilly relations won’t sever the ties that bind
President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have a contentious relationship. Yet the economic, security and administrative ties that bind the United States and Canada together are far stronger than any hostility between the two countries’ leaders. Though differences in defense policy will exacerbate tensions over the next few ...


U.S.-India ties are still strengthening
India imports oil from Iran and buys arms from Russia, while trying to mend fences with Beijing. All this seems anathema to American policy, and now President Donald Trump has turned down an invitation to visit India in January. But reports that the U.S.-India relationship is on the rocks are ...


U.S. defense spending: A bellwether for Trump’s security policy
The Trump administration has signaled its plan to maintain “peace through strength” with significant increases in defense expenditures for 2018 and 2019. However, to sustain its readiness, the U.S. military says it needs much more. The White House faces a difficult political landscape, one that will likely resist further rises ...


The U.S. and Mexico go from pugilism to partnership
Despite confrontational rhetoric from the leaders of both countries, the U.S. and Mexico have plenty of reason to work together. Certainly, U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador have some contrasting views on bilateral issues, but both have signaled a willingness to collaborate on priorities from ...


Next steps in the North Korea talks
As nuclear disarmament talks proceed between the United States and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the two sides are pursuing incompatible negotiating strategies. The U.S. wants tangible, verifiable progress fast, while North Korea is convinced that President Donald Trump is ...


Is the U.S. going back to the Western Balkans?
The United States is increasing its engagement with the Western Balkans on issues including security, energy and good governance. The administration is trying to reduce instability in the region, improve economic development and counter outside influence from countries like Russia and China. If these efforts are successful, U.S. capital investment ...


U.S. security policy toward Europe: The next phase
One of the most frequently asked questions about President Donald Trump’s foreign policy is what it plans to do about Europe. The answer to that is now clearer, though not necessarily the disaster for transatlantic relations that the G7 summit in Quebec appeared to be. What Washington has in mind ...


The strategic implications of China’s Arctic Road
China has proposed building a link to Western Europe through the Arctic as part of its huge Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing insists its intentions are purely economic and scientific, but such a pathway dominated by China would tip the strategic balance in the region. So far, the Western response ...


A free and open Indo-Pacific: Regional and global implications
One of the techniques devised for managing China’s ascent and its destabilizing impact is the concept of a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” This idea, embraced by the governments of Japan, India and the United States, includes military, economic, political, legal and diplomatic dimensions. Some argue it is a smoke screen ...


2018 Global Outlook: Nuclear proliferation threat is exaggerated
The world’s existing nuclear powers are wary of proliferation, even if prospects for nuclear arms control appear to be dim. The United States, Russia, China and smaller states in possession of such arms are, at most, modernizing their arsenals. North Korea and possibly Iran cannot be prevented from developing nuclear ...


U.S. missile defense tries to keep ahead of North Korea and Iran
The U.S. strategic missile defense program tends to speed up under Republican presidents and slow down under Democrats. This trend seems to be holding as the Trump administration puts renewed emphasis on missile defense as a cornerstone of its military strategy. Amid threats from North Korea, look for Washington to ...


Washington poised to become New Delhi’s partner in the Indian Ocean
Not since the Cold War has the United States paid such close attention to the Indian Ocean. Now the competitor attracting Washington’s attention is China, not the Soviet Union, and its closest partner is India – a country with its own concerns about Chinese designs in the region. The consequence ...


The U.S. military’s skeptical response to hybrid warfare
Hybrid warfare has been a hot concept in the military and security community since the mid-2000s. But it has not made much of a dent on U.S. military doctrine, which is more concerned with urban warfare and its own theory of “multi-domain battle.” At the strategic level, American planners do ...


U.S. civil-military relations in the age of Trump
Controversy has erupted over relations between the civilian government and military leadership in U.S. President Donald Trump's administration. The president’s critics derided him first for appointing military officers to top political positions, then for marginalizing them. But a closer look reveals that the national security team agrees on the biggest ...


U.S. nuclear review could test force posture
One of President Donald Trump’s first decisions as commander in chief was to order a review of the country’s nuclear strategy. The result could be a significant departure from the previous U.S. emphasis on nonproliferation and weapons reduction. Instead, there could be more funds for upgrading strategic forces and a ...


Trump pushes U.S. defense buildup
The Trump administration has recently announced its budget priorities, and the most eye-catching figure was the $54 billion increase in defense spending, to $603 billion. Though there is wide agreement that the U.S. military is under increasing stress and is becoming less able to defend American interests, the proposal is ...
