Reports

The European Union took bold initiatives in 2020 to fight the Covid-19 pandemic and lay the foundations for economic recovery. This year the EU’s crisis management capacities will be tested by the need to deliver on these commitments amid acrimony over delays in delivering vaccines, political uncertainty in key member ...

Tension has marked recent relations between the European Union and Turkey, from personal insults between leaders to spats over exploration rights in the Mediterranean Sea. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made conciliatory statements recently, but the question is whether anything can come of them. There are pathways to avoid ...

The British government’s posturing in talks with the EU is testing goodwill in European capitals. Apart from risking a no-deal outcome on January 1, 2020, it casts a shadow over Britain’s prospects for close security and defense cooperation with Germany and France after Brexit is completed. 

The European Union may not survive the coronavirus pandemic, according to critics. Or, quite to the contrary, it will prosper as EU leaders mobilize the union’s political and institutional resources and breathe new life into the European project. Which of the two narratives is more likely to materialize? Michael Leigh ...

Brexit has raised expectations of renewed attempts at joint Franco-German leadership of the EU. Without Britain’s leveling role, however, the EU’s prospects under the Berlin-Paris tandem could depend on compromises between German ordoliberalism and French economic interventionism. Smaller member states are concerned that their interests would be shunted aside.

The UK Parliament’s moves to block Brexit from occurring without a deal on October 31, 2019, has prompted some to say that Europe has reached “peak populism.” As the British case shows, though, societies remain polarized and democratic rules continue to be bent. What happens next in the UK may ...

The United Kingdom and the European Union have drawn little benefit from the Brexit negotiations. It did not have to be this way. The leadership on both sides made critical mistakes that have put Europe in this pickle. As the process moves toward its next stage, the question is whether ...

There are plenty of signs of trouble ahead for the European Union in 2019. Unstable leadership, rampant populism, strikes and demonstrations, migration disputes, security challenges, Brexit, an economic slowdown and the makings of another financial crisis are just a few of the challenges that await. For EU institutions, perhaps the ...

Brexit negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom were supposed to be concluded at the EU summit on October 17. But the deadline passed with no breakthrough, and no plans for a new meeting. With the clock to a “hard Brexit” ticking down, this could be the salutary ...

Judging by the declining numbers of new migrants, Europe is no longer facing an acute immigration crisis. But you would never know it from the decision by the European Council in June to set up holding camps for asylum seekers. Instead, the get-tough policy of EU leaders is increasingly driven ...

Prime Minister Theresa May has bowed to economic reality and unveiled a Brexit model that would keep the United Kingdom close to the European Union. The move provoked an immediate cabinet crisis and the resignations of leading Brexiters. Fear of a Labour government will probably keep other Conservatives in line, ...

There is growing concern in Europe and the United States that Italy could turn out to be the weakest link in the chain of resistance to Russian misconduct. Its rising parties of protest, the Five Star Movement and La Lega, want sanctions against Russia dropped. But Italy has always fancied ...

Signs are accumulating that the preliminary divorce agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union is starting to unravel, and that a year from now, on March 29/30, 2019, we could witness a “hard Brexit” with no transition arrangements and chaos in areas hitherto regulated by the EU. The ...

The European Union is facing internal and external challenges that will continue to test its leadership in 2018. Politicians will struggle to agree on a reform agenda for the union against a background of tepid economic growth, Brexit, the migrant drama, geopolitical realignments, a rethinking of the international role of ...

Under London’s current proposal, the United Kingdom could quit the European Union at midnight on March 30, 2019 largely unscathed, leaving behind a smaller, but cooperatively disposed community on the continent and the outstanding, complex divorce issues for settling later on. But then, there is the “cliff edge” scenario with ...

The relationship between Turkey and the European Union is on the rocks. Turkey cannot be considered eligible for membership, but the accession process remains officially ongoing. A collapse of the talks seems likely – but that would cause more problems than it would solve. Forging a new kind of partnership ...

Though the Asia-Pacific region seems too far away to be affected by Brexit, the UK’s departure from the EU will have a profound impact on the region. While it will reduce the bloc’s significance in the region’s affairs, the UK’s status may suffer as well. Asia-Pacific states will likely look ...

The crisis-stricken European Union may disintegrate in a decade, or reinvent and invigorate itself. The most plausible scenario, however, is a pragmatic downsizing: Brussels will abandon its overreaching ambition of ever-closer union and focus on programs that actually benefit EU residents.