Reports

The German economic policy agenda for Europe
The German presidency of the European Union is likely to have a mixed legacy. On one hand, the financial packages agreed should be considered a French-German political success. On the other, the fiscal consequences of the new measures will allow the European Union to raise debt on an unprecedented scale, ...


Relevance beyond the crisis: Germany’s ‘fat years’ are over
Over the past decade, Germany has worked hard to keep its public finances sound, lowering its debt levels and recording budget surpluses. Though the coronavirus crisis will undoubtedly change that state of affairs, the country's previous fiscal responsibility gives it more room to maneuver than most of its peers. The ...


Leadership Challenges 2020: The void of German politics
German politics have reached an unprecedented level of incoherence and, with no clear source of leadership, the situation is likely to worsen. The Christian Democrats may survive the 2021 federal elections. However, they will need to seek new allies to govern, leaving them in poor shape to address the pressing ...


Germany: The exhausted man of Europe?
Formerly Europe’s growth engine, the German economy is now lagging behind other eurozone countries, and could potentially affect growth in the entire region. This poor performance is partly caused by the looming threats of U.S. tariffs and a disorderly Brexit. However, systemic problems, like a lack of technological innovation in ...


Opinion: Germany 30 years after the Berlin Wall came down
A little over 30 years ago, the Berlin Wall came down. GIS expert Michael Wohlgemuth, who studied in both East and West Germany in the late 1980s and early 1990s, shares his impressions of how far the country has come economically, and the challenges it faces as a deepening political ...


Nord Stream 2: The German perspective
Though most parties in Germany’s parliament support the Nord Stream 2 project, there is far from a consensus within the country: even the government doesn’t have a consistent policy. Still, Berlin sees benefits in having access to more gas supply than it needs, and the project wins votes in regions ...


Opinion: The overhauled but directionless Franco-German tandem
When French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel signed a new Franco-German treaty in Charlemagne’s old imperial capital of Aachen earlier this year, the outcome was underwhelming. The ambitious goals that were set also seem entirely unrealistic, given the countries’ increasing divergence on policy. That means fears of ...


Opinion: The slow death of Germany’s political center
Recent elections in Bavaria were the latest to show the weakness of Germany’s centrist parties, the SPD and the CDU/CSU. These traditional mainstays of German politics have seen their bases move toward more radical movements of the right and left and parties that espouse more “modern” values. But the Social ...


Germans expect soft Brexit but want EU to be uncompromising
Warning to London: recent polls reveal that Germans remain committed to the European Union and are concerned about political uncertainty, but they expect Berlin to remain tough on the terms of the UK’s separation


Opinion: The decline of social democracy
After a wretched result in last year’s general elections, Germany’s Social Democrats are now voting on whether to enter another grand coalition with the CDU/CSU. Whatever they decide, it may already be too late for the party to pull out of its tailspin. The SPD’s sad decline is part of ...


2018 Global Outlook: The Euro-Atlantic relationship
The transatlantic relationship can be described as a family matter – with the United States as the mostly benevolent patriarch and Europe as the dependent relatives. Relations had been cooling for at least a decade, but this process is being expedited by the presidency of Donald Trump. Both sides seem ...


Is a European Monetary Fund needed?
In December, the European Commission will publish its proposal to establish a European Monetary Fund. From a strictly economic point of view, such a fund is not needed. There are plenty of political reasons, however, with Germany, France and the EC all pursuing their own contradictory goals. That makes it ...


Brussels’ quango quagmire
The European Union spends some 2 billion euro each year on its more than 40 quasi-autonomous nongovernmental organizations, or “quangos.” They are spread out across the continent and have overlapping responsibilities.


Germany votes: another four years of Merkel – but which Merkel?
Angela Merkel looks nearly certain to win another term as chancellor of Germany in September. The big question is what her next moves will be. Much of that will depend on her coalition partners in government, but one thing is sure: she will continue to be flexible and outsmart her ...


Opinion: Why Germany ‘Kant’ be the UK’s perfect Brexit ally
The United Kingdom’s chances for an amicable divorce from the European Union depend above all on reaching an understanding with Germany. But in the Brexit negotiations, German interests will clash with German scruples. The latter may very well prevail.


Opinion: EU-60 summit evades disaster and reform
The European Union avoided embarrassment at its 60th anniversary reunion thanks to British Prime Minister Theresa May, who tactfully stayed away before signing her divorce papers. But with the bloc facing tough choices about its future course, its leaders merely raised their champagne glasses. The EU fiddled at the Rome ...


Global Outlook 2017: Merkel and the myth of German hegemony
Among the leaders of the world’s biggest liberal democracies, it seems Angela Merkel is the last woman standing. Some have claimed that will make her the leader of the free world and Germany Europe’s hegemon. Such claims are greatly exaggerated. There will be significant limitations to both Germany and Ms. ...


After the Brexit vote: a benchmark scenario for Europe (part 2)
There has been much talk but little planning for Europe’s life after Brexit. Yet proposals to make the EU more accountable, competitive and flexible have been on the table for almost a year. This report outlines a compromise scenario for an economically sensible, “soft” Brexit that could provide a broader ...


After the Brexit vote: can the EU reform itself? (part 1)
With the United Kingdom on the way out, doubts linger about whether the European Union can fix its problems of a weak democratic mandate and a centralized approach to integration. Implementing the agreement reached last February with David Cameron, designed to address the key concerns of British skeptics, could be ...


Life after Brexit
Days before the British referendum on European Union membership it remains totally unclear whether the United Kingdom will remain in the EU. It is equally uncertain what economic and political disruptions are in store; there are innumerable “ifs” and “trade-offs” that condition both possible outcomes. But some scenarios of post-Brexit ...


Euro crisis: time for a rerun?
After Greece obtained its third bailout last summer, Europe turned its attention to other crises. But it would be naive to conclude that the sovereign debt crisis is over. The Greek drama is still far from a happy ending; in Portugal and Spain, fragile left-wing governments may want to abandon ...


Zero interest rates put savings, political reform at risk
The United States Federal Reserve made news last week by raising its benchmark interest rate. However, even if the Fed continues with modest hikes, globally, rates close to and even below zero are here to stay, especially in the eurozone. Some observers explain this unusual state of affairs by citing ...


Eurozone’s road to political union looks like a mirage
It is commonly argued that at its heart, the European Union’s Economic and Monetary Union is a political project. Many therefore claim that its difficulties stem from a lack of political union, since EU officials have offered no coherent view on how to achieve one. Paris and Berlin both have ...


Cash is no longer king as fiscal and monetary interests converge
Will banknotes and coins soon disappear? Modern technology and private convenience support this trend, but monetary policy and political coercion play a less innocuous role. A ‘war on cash’ is underway that aims at enforcing negative interest rates on private savings, expropriating savers for the sake of a demand-driven stimulus. ...
