Reports

Daesh’s imminent defeat in Syria has brought new tensions to the fore. Iran now has proxies and allies right next door to Israel, while the U.S. has committed to a long-term military presence. Russia’s main objective continues to be securing its Syrian bases, and Turkey is becoming more isolated over ...

Early 2018 finds the Middle East at a singular moment in its history. It is hard to recall a period when so many fundamental geopolitical shifts have occurred just as societies, states and alliances in the region were all starting to fall apart. Four disruptive trends can be identified, any ...

President Donald Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital has hurt U.S. efforts to build a Sunni alliance against Iran. Given the risk of a region-wide conflict erupting near the Golan Heights or in southern Lebanon, its timing was also unfortunate. However, there could be a deeper logic behind ...

Iraqi Kurdistan’s disastrous decision to press ahead with an independence referendum has allowed the Iraqi federal government to reassert control over Kirkuk and its vital oil fields. But an even bigger consequence of Baghdad’s resurgence could be a potential conflict with its erstwhile sponsor, Tehran. Any such confrontation would quickly ...

As the battle for Mosul concludes, the battle for Raqqa is entering its initial phase. From a military perspective, the fall of these twin bastions of Daesh was never in doubt. But tactical victories can only be turned into long-term strategic gains if a political process is put in place. ...

The EU is a mature, powerful bloc of nations that has vital interests outside its borders, especially in the Mediterranean and Baltic regions, in the Middle East and Africa. Unless the bloc drops its pretense of inwardness and moves to define, articulate and defend its spheres of influence, the multiple ...

The complicated task of stabilizing Afghanistan is made even more complex by the support Pakistan and other countries give the Taliban. The United States will have to navigate this web of interests and alliances carefully. An increase in American troop levels could deter some of the players in the region ...

Algeria's perennial problems are reaching crisis levels. The economic outlook is so dire that street violence is a distinct possibility. Its political scene is paralyzed by a seemingly endless succession crisis involving the ailing 78-year-old president, Abdulaziz Bouteflika. Legislative elections earlier this month did nothing to stop the drift. If ...

The dangerous military situation in the Eastern Mediterranean opens a list of troubling scenarios in the Middle East. Just as grave is the possibility of turmoil in Egypt, which could launch a migrant wave of millions into Europe. Daesh's impending military defeat will pose challenges as the movement disperses and ...

The Mosul Dam holds back some 11.1 billion cubic meters of water, 45 kilometers northwest of the city of Mosul. It is built on fragile geology and requires 24-hour maintenance to keep it from collapsing. If it were to fail, it could kill as many as 1.5 million people, with ...

The popular perception of Daesh – also known as Islamic State or IS – as a terrorist organization is as inaccurate as it is dangerous. Daesh is essentially a military force that uses the desert to its advantage, employing terrorist operations where useful. The misconception is dangerous because it leads ...

Low oil prices are putting pressure on Gulf states’ budgets, and their efforts to reduce spending will have huge geopolitical implications. Most importantly, they will lose influence in the region as they hold back on foreign aid and military engagement. Domestically, diminished subsidies, welfare and infrastructure expenditures could arouse instability.

The Eastern Mediterranean is crowded with players with conflicting interests. The rise of Daesh and the discovery of offshore gas has further complicated matters. But the European Union and NATO have not articulated well-defined strategies for protecting their interests in the region. Russia, on the other hand, has moved in ...

Saudi Arabia is losing trust in its old ally, the United States, whose posture in the Middle East has markedly changed. This provides an opening for partnership with Russia. Although the two countries stand on opposite sides of several important issues – especially the conflict in Syria and how to ...

Qatar and Russia have little reason to like each other. They are adversaries on several Middle Eastern battlefields and heavyweight rivals on the world gas market. But Doha, for its own reasons, wants to keep the communication lines open with Moscow.

Russia and the Saudi-led Gulf states have been at loggerheads over Syria, Iran and oil markets. Yet in the power vacuum left by U.S. disengagement from the Middle East, they have more in common than meets the eye.

Middle Eastern disputes have again become flash points for global rivalries – a trend that will accelerate and intensify this year. Shia-Sunni tensions remain central, but they are no longer the sole driver of regional conflict. An evolving face-off between Russia and Europe over the eastern Mediterranean, along with competition ...

The creation of an Arab Defence Force (ADF) marks the emergence of a Saudi-led coalition ready to fight the twin threats of Iran and Islamic State. Whether the new grouping will prove a regional bulwark for endangered Sunni regimes following the US’s disengagement from the Middle East will depend on ...

Iraq has been split by rival regional groups which have undermined the country’s ability to govern and run its economy. This division has been exacerbated by America’s decision to successively pull out of Iraq, show less interest in the Middle East and simultaneously pivot to Asia. The future could see ...

The prospects of an imminent historic agreement with Iran on its nuclear programme are having major repercussions across the Middle East. Iran is emboldened and sees itself playing a major role as it is welcomed back into the international community. The six Gulf Cooperation Countries feel threatened and abandoned by ...

Yemen’s civil war between Houthi rebels from the north and a democratically-elected government risks boiling over into a major regional conflict. It bears the hallmarks of a Shia-Sunni battleground. An Arab coalition - including the non-arab nuclear power Pakistan - and led by Saudi Arabia, has already used air and ...

A change to Japan’s constitution, giving it the ability to take part in armed conflict, could change the region’s geopolitics through building bilateral alliances. This more aggressive foreign and defence policy approach is likely to have the backing of the US - Japan’s main ally. It can also be seen ...

The populations of Turkey and Egypt have taken to the streets to protest at government policies. Both countries have strong armed forces and Muslim governments which ignored the masses. But the similarities between the two countries of similar size and demographics are superficial and fail to recognise the difference between ...

Political upheaval and violence in Egypt could lead to a wave of refugees fleeing the country to find peace and stability. European countries signed up to the Schengen agreement – which allows the free movement of people across the borders of 26 states – are just 500 kilometres of water ...