Reports

EU-China investment treaty: Small win, big losses
An investment deal between China and the European Union was hurriedly concluded as 2020 was drawing to a close. At a glance, Europe seems to have achieved many of its objectives, like better access to Chinese markets and promises of improving human rights conditions. However, the agreement is not without ...


Fast growth in 2021, but not for everybody
Many forecast that 2021 will be characterized by vigorous growth and that, by the end of the coming year, the world economy will have recovered from the 2020 losses. The author takes a more discriminating view and argues that only a few countries, China among them, will be back on ...


The implications of Asia’s mega trade agreement
Despite being the largest trade agreement in modern history, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will have only a limited impact in Asia, where most countries have already signed trade deals with each other. China’s aggressive military posturing will undo any eventual soft power benefits. Meanwhile, the regional relevance of ...


RCEP: A wake-up call for Europe to increase competitiveness
Through RCEP, Asian and Pacific countries have created the largest and most powerful trade zone in the world. Although there is no lack of geopolitical tension in the region, the member states have put aside political issues to prioritize economic growth. This could serve as an example for Europe, which ...


Japan’s innovation struggle
With a growing Chinese presence in Asia, it is crucial for Japan to maintain its position as one of the most technologically advanced countries in the world. To achieve this, the Japanese are likely to tap into their long tradition of rapid modernization. This time, the country will need to ...


Xi’s Shenzhen card – from domestic circulation to political integration
After last year’s protests, the Chinese Communist Party no longer wishes to highlight Hong Kong’s economic prowess. Rather, it plans on implementing ambitious economic reforms in the city of Shenzhen so that the Greater Bay Area becomes a hub for innovation and growth. The new strategy foresees economic integration with ...


China prepares for a storm
China’s recent moves to secure supply chains, win over allies and beef up its military made it clear that it saw conflict with the West as a possibility. Now, its new five-year plan will develop policies meant to insulate it from the possible negative effects of the great power competition. ...


The challenges of EU-China decoupling
Like the United States, the European Union faces the prospect of a systemic conflict with Beijing. However, weaning the European economy off China would pose significant challenges. Many countries on the continent, Germany foremost among them, are dependent on Chinese trade. Still, the EU might be forced to consider some ...


Closer Beijing-Vatican ties spell trouble for Taiwan
The Vatican has recently agreed to continue making compromises with Beijing regarding the mutual recognition of bishop appointments.The Holy See wishes for an outcome similar to the situation in Vietnam, where it coexists smoothly with communist authorities. However, the Chinese government has an agenda of its own – one that ...


Regional hegemony and control of the Tibetan plateau
The recent skirmishes along the Indo-Chinese borders are part of a larger regional conflict driven by Beijing’s desire to establish its dominance throughout Asia. Because so many crucial geostrategic points are located across the Himalayas – including access to several major waterways – military tension is bound to escalate.


Opinion: Wolf warrior diplomacy and the illusion of inevitable Chinese leadership
China’s new, more aggressive foreign policy has been dubbed “wolf warrior diplomacy,” after a Rambo-style movie popular in the country. President Xi Jinping believes he can take a stronger hand, since he considers it inevitable that China will soon take over the U.S.’s global leadership role. But the adversarial stance ...


Taiwan and China’s relationship with the West
In the aftermath of the Chinese Communist Party’s harsh crackdown on Hong Kong’s independence, many observers believe Taiwan will now face increased pressure from Beijing to fall in line with the political and economic goals of mainland China. While the West has done little in response to the Hong Kong ...


Shinzo Abe’s successors to face a nasty test of wills in the East China Sea
The Chinese craft intrusions in the territorial waters and airspace of Japan’s Senkaku Islands put Tokyo in a quandary. It has worked hard to have good relations with Beijing. The question marks over the reliability of Washington’s support for U.S. Asian allies further complicates the Japanese position.


Shifting winds and geopolitical games in the Far East
Challenged by China, Washington is scrambling to defend its global preeminence by shifting U.S. trade policies and diluting commitments to provide security to American allies overseas. As a result, Japan finds itself confronted with limited options and risky policy choices.


Reassessing the geopolitics of rising China
The U.S. secretary of state calls the task of finding more creative and assertive ways to contain China the “mission of our time” for the Western world. The challenge is not going to be easy as the Chinese Communist Party has taken clues from the failures of the former Soviet ...


Opinion: Democracy alive and well in the steppes
In June, Mongolia held parliamentary elections that were widely recognized as free and fair. The country has managed eight such polls in a row, a unique achievement in its region. Nevertheless, it is clear that reforms are still necessary. Recent constitutional amendments should support that effort. For now, it is ...


South Korea points the way
Sociocultural factors can explain South Korea’s model reaction to the coronavirus pandemic. The country’s difficult postwar years led to a strong sense of civic duty, which led citizens to adhere meticulously to government guidelines. However, this success on the health front does not preclude economic difficulties amid the global recession.


New standoffs between China and India
China and India are beefing up their military capabilities again. The two Asian giants are confronting each other in the traditional hotspots along their disputed border in the Himalayas and, more recently, in the Indian Ocean. War is still not in the cards, but the growing tension adds to the ...


Africa-China business and political relations under stress
The pandemic-induced economic contraction and ongoing fragmentation of the global order put Africa in a particularly vulnerable position. The youthful sub-Saharan societies have been spared the worst of the public health crisis. However, unless there is a quick and robust recovery, especially in China, they face devastating economic blows, insolvency ...


The economic consequences of a global fragmentation will be severe
As the economy begins to sag, China’s ruling party is tightening control over the country and fanning nationalist sentiments in response to justified criticism from abroad. International tension is rising. The world could split up into competing political and economic blocks once again. This would be particularly harmful for Europe, ...


Relevance beyond the crisis: The deepening geopolitical divide
If the 2008-2009 financial crisis launched China to superpower status, then the 2020-2021 post-coronavirus period may solidify its position. As the West continues to struggle with the fallout of COVID-19, China is recovering and finding ways to strengthen its clout. The question now will be which countries line up behind ...


Japan and South Korea: Strategic alignments
Japan and South Korea must both balance the United States and China in their geopolitical stance: one guarantees their security, the other holds huge sway over their economies. The two Northeast Asian countries are taking very different approaches to this situation, however. As the great-power competition between the U.S. and ...


The U.S. and China: The rivalry escalates
The principle of “the Thucydides trap” posits that when one global power is set to supersede another, war is inevitable. While China is gradually catching up with the United States on the world stage, an all-out war is unlikely. It is more probable that the two countries will use every ...
