Reports

In the aftermath of the most recent fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkey has emerged as a key player in the Caucasus. This new status will increase its pull over some of its smaller neighbor states. Georgia could soon find itself seeking security guarantees from Ankara, instead of Western organizations – a ...

Russia and Turkey have long been players in the Balkans and still have interests there – some conflicting and some convergent. Until the beginning of the 20th century, both considered the region their sphere of influence, and they are now returning there. But this development is unlikely to prompt a ...

Over the past several years, Turkey has become a major player in energy deliveries from the Caucasus to Europe, and its deepening partnership with Azerbaijan has only solidified its position as a regional power. As Russia’s grip on the region weakens, it could lead to serious security concerns, with Ankara ...

The latest violent chapter in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has rebalanced geopolitical realities in the South Caucasus. Turkey has made significant progress in expanding its role there. Even more disturbingly for the Kremlin, the 2020 war has been associated with a surge in radical political Islam that threatens to spill ...

Tension has marked recent relations between the European Union and Turkey, from personal insults between leaders to spats over exploration rights in the Mediterranean Sea. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made conciliatory statements recently, but the question is whether anything can come of them. There are pathways to avoid ...

The Muslim Brotherhood has long been establishing European networks to disseminate the teaching of Islam, and governments have been slow to react. However, recent terror attacks could lead to a harder stance from EU leaders. Islamic organizations and their backers are now waiting to see if Europe will present a ...

The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, recently halted by a Russia-backed cease-fire, exposed a new balance of foreign interests in the region. Iran has faced a difficult choice: whether to back a Shia Muslim Azerbaijan that is also receiving support from Israel and Turkey. The prospect of Israeli access to Iran’s northern ...

After three decades of unsuccessful international mediation, conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh has resumed. What has changed in the meantime, however, is Azerbaijan’s relative strength. With oil revenue financing arms purchases, as well as substantial support from Turkey, Baku is determined to settle the matter through military means.

Discoveries of rich hydrocarbon deposits under the Eastern Mediterranean seabed have added a new driver to the region’s old rivalries. Athens claims nearly all of the Aegean Sea as exclusive economic zone and the delineation of sea borders near Cyprus prompted Turkey’s reaction. Now, NATO and the European Union have ...

Egypt’s situation has recently suffered a double blow. The pandemic has crippled its economy, while the defeat of its Libyan ally, Field Marshal Haftar, means Cairo will need to recalibrate its involvement in Libya’s civil war. Meanwhile, President El-Sisi still has to contend with the insurgency in Sinai and the ...

The militias of Tobruk-based warlord Khalifa Haftar failed to take the capital of Libya and are being pushed out from the western part of the country, where there are strategic oil fields. Turkey’s intervention played a decisive role in this military outcome. As other external powers engaged in Libya consider ...

Many expected the coronavirus to spread rapidly throughout the Middle East, but save for Turkey and Iran, most countries in the region had the pandemic under control early on, thanks to aggressive containment measures. However, the drop in oil prices will be felt keenly in the area, potentially leading to ...

After nearly a decade of conflict and foreign interventions, the Libyan conflict is nowhere near resolved. Weapons and ammunition are still being delivered to both parties by external actors, perpetuating the fighting. With deep divides in both the international community and Libyan society, the situation is unlikely to change in ...

Turkey and Russia, with their history of centuries-long rivalry in the Black Sea and the Middle East, are both pursuing deft regional policies that reflect a complex web of aligned and conflicting strategic interests

For the better part of a decade, Islamic State was enemy number one for the United States, its allies and other countries across the Middle East. While establishing a quasi-state across a huge section of Iraq and Syria, the group also conducted terrorist attacks all around the world. Though it ...

Turkey provides considerable assistance to the Libyan Government of National Accord in its war against the Libyan National Army in the hope of gaining access to the oil-rich Mediterranean Basin. More than religious sentiment, it is Prime Minister Erdogan’s wish to see Turkey become a key player in the region ...

The opposition victory in Istanbul’s mayoral election was seen widely as a defeat for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose illiberal, centralized system is much criticized in the West. Yet Mr. Erdogan’s detractors underestimate the challenge of adapting to Turkey’s changing geopolitical circumstances, where the Kemalist principles of secularism and ...

Though the regime of President Bashar al-Assad now governs most of the country and ISIS has lost the territory it once held, there is still no end in sight for the Syrian Civil War. Opposition groups control several provinces, where violence simmers, and the complicated web of foreign interests has ...

The single most important development in the Middle East has been the end of Syria’s civil war, which was unequivocally won by the Baath regime. Even the hammer blows of a determined religious opposition could not destroy the post-World War I system that created Syria, Iraq and Jordan as Arab ...

Though it is popular to contrast “populism” with “democracy,” the two are more alike than different. Like the Reformation 500 years ago, today’s populist movements aim to wrest power from the elites and give it back to the people. Instead of petering out, variations on the democratic populist system are ...

Journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder has upset the Middle East’s geopolitical balance in two dimensions: the three-sided rivalry between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and the conflict between the Muslim Brotherhood and stable monarchies in the region. For the Saudis, the crisis poses an unexpected opportunity to improve governance. For the ...

Energy cooperation between Turkey and Russia has ramped up in recent years. If it grows any closer, it could threaten EU interests, especially the key Southern Gas Corridor project. But Turkey's own interests are also at risk if its dependence on Russian gas supplies grows. The question is whether President ...

Europe has a mixed history when it comes to its involvement in Africa. In recent years, it has mostly abandoned its interests there, leaving a vacuum that is being filled by China, Russia and Turkey. European policy toward Africa currently is shortsighted, mainly aiming to address the migration crisis. But ...

If Europe and the United States try to exploit Turkey's current financial difficulties to apply political pressure, they will be making a serious mistake.