Reports

Systemic competition: China’s challenge to the West in 2021 and beyond
This year marks the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China. By its end, Beijing wants to have built a “moderately prosperous society.” In parallel, President Xi Jinping seems ready to embark on an all-out contest between statist China and the liberal Western economies. While the Middle ...


EU-China investment treaty: Small win, big losses
An investment deal between China and the European Union was hurriedly concluded as 2020 was drawing to a close. At a glance, Europe seems to have achieved many of its objectives, like better access to Chinese markets and promises of improving human rights conditions. However, the agreement is not without ...


Opinion: GIS expert on China policy under Biden
Joe Biden’s policies toward China can be inferred from his political trajectory, his record and election promises, and also the policies and public statements of key figures in the president-elect’s emerging administration. This report indicates the areas in foreign relations, trade, technology and defense where policy changes are imminent, and ...


Xi’s Shenzhen card – from domestic circulation to political integration
After last year’s protests, the Chinese Communist Party no longer wishes to highlight Hong Kong’s economic prowess. Rather, it plans on implementing ambitious economic reforms in the city of Shenzhen so that the Greater Bay Area becomes a hub for innovation and growth. The new strategy foresees economic integration with ...


TikTok, WeChat and China’s asymmetric digital expansion
The Chinese app TikTok has rapidly conquered the American market, but its fate is now uncertain due to security concerns. President Trump has put an upcoming ban on hold to discuss a deal that would create a joint venture between American and Chinese companies. However, Beijing has proven unwilling to ...


Portugal is key to China’s Euro-African strategy
Like a white knight, China stepped in after Portugal’s 2011 bankruptcy with billions of dollars in investment. After centuries of trade and cultural exchange, it helped the relationship between the two countries flourish. Now China sees Portugal as a crucial cog in its strategy to exert influence and expand trade ...


The challenges of EU-China decoupling
Like the United States, the European Union faces the prospect of a systemic conflict with Beijing. However, weaning the European economy off China would pose significant challenges. Many countries on the continent, Germany foremost among them, are dependent on Chinese trade. Still, the EU might be forced to consider some ...


Closer Beijing-Vatican ties spell trouble for Taiwan
The Vatican has recently agreed to continue making compromises with Beijing regarding the mutual recognition of bishop appointments.The Holy See wishes for an outcome similar to the situation in Vietnam, where it coexists smoothly with communist authorities. However, the Chinese government has an agenda of its own – one that ...


Regional hegemony and control of the Tibetan plateau
The recent skirmishes along the Indo-Chinese borders are part of a larger regional conflict driven by Beijing’s desire to establish its dominance throughout Asia. Because so many crucial geostrategic points are located across the Himalayas – including access to several major waterways – military tension is bound to escalate.


Opinion: Wolf warrior diplomacy and the illusion of inevitable Chinese leadership
China’s new, more aggressive foreign policy has been dubbed “wolf warrior diplomacy,” after a Rambo-style movie popular in the country. President Xi Jinping believes he can take a stronger hand, since he considers it inevitable that China will soon take over the U.S.’s global leadership role. But the adversarial stance ...


Taiwan and China’s relationship with the West
In the aftermath of the Chinese Communist Party’s harsh crackdown on Hong Kong’s independence, many observers believe Taiwan will now face increased pressure from Beijing to fall in line with the political and economic goals of mainland China. While the West has done little in response to the Hong Kong ...


Shinzo Abe’s successors to face a nasty test of wills in the East China Sea
The Chinese craft intrusions in the territorial waters and airspace of Japan’s Senkaku Islands put Tokyo in a quandary. It has worked hard to have good relations with Beijing. The question marks over the reliability of Washington’s support for U.S. Asian allies further complicates the Japanese position.


A confident, robust democracy is not vulnerable to subversion
Moscow and Beijing may prefer one U.S. presidential candidate over the other, but it is unlikely that either power would be able to influence the outcome of the U.S. electoral process in a significant way.


Reassessing the geopolitics of rising China
The U.S. secretary of state calls the task of finding more creative and assertive ways to contain China the “mission of our time” for the Western world. The challenge is not going to be easy as the Chinese Communist Party has taken clues from the failures of the former Soviet ...


Africa-China business and political relations under stress
The pandemic-induced economic contraction and ongoing fragmentation of the global order put Africa in a particularly vulnerable position. The youthful sub-Saharan societies have been spared the worst of the public health crisis. However, unless there is a quick and robust recovery, especially in China, they face devastating economic blows, insolvency ...


GIS Dossier: Global trade tensions worsen
Nobody is interested in setting off a trade war, but the trade liberalization process has ground to a halt. The U.S. is not the only guilty party: none of the biggest trading nations has abided by the principle of free trade. Also, many smaller countries are free riders on the system. ...


The economic consequences of a global fragmentation will be severe
As the economy begins to sag, China’s ruling party is tightening control over the country and fanning nationalist sentiments in response to justified criticism from abroad. International tension is rising. The world could split up into competing political and economic blocks once again. This would be particularly harmful for Europe, ...


As the U.S. ratchets up pressure on China, the trade war may return
The Phase One trade agreement between the U.S. and China, signed in January shortly before the coronavirus pandemic, ended two years of a disruptive “trade war” between the two countries. As anti-China sentiment in the U.S. grows and the presidential campaign heats up, the deal may prove short-lived.


Relevance beyond the crisis: The deepening geopolitical divide
If the 2008-2009 financial crisis launched China to superpower status, then the 2020-2021 post-coronavirus period may solidify its position. As the West continues to struggle with the fallout of COVID-19, China is recovering and finding ways to strengthen its clout. The question now will be which countries line up behind ...


How China missed a chance to stop the coronavirus epidemic
The head of the World Health Organization praised China’s response to the emergence of coronavirus in Wuhan last December as swift and characterized by model transparency, but there are reasons to challenge this view. In reality, both local and central authorities in Beijing suppressed early reports of the disease’s danger ...


Beidou: Assessing China’s alternative to GPS
The third iteration of China’s satellite navigation system, Beidou, is now nearing the capacity of the United States’ GPS system. This technological advance will shield the Chinese military from further American attempts to disrupt navigation. Furthermore, Beidou will increase Beijing’s attractiveness as a partner in a wide range of sectors.


Italy’s risky relationship with China and Europe’s future
When in March 2019 Italy became the largest EU country to sign a memorandum of understanding with China on its Belt and Road Initiative, it put Italy-China relations in the spotlight. Like other European governments, the leadership in Rome is struggling to balance economic interests with its security interests and ...


Leadership Challenges 2020: Where is China going under President Xi Jinping?
Over the last decades, China experienced a transformational period of spectacular growth, becoming one of the top global players from both an economic and geopolitical standpoint. These recent accomplishments have convinced its citizens of the legitimacy of the current system. However, younger generations will expect the government to earn their ...
