Reports

New Opportunities 2021: India plans reforms shielded by robust economic growth
India will rely on targeted supply-side spending to help resurrect the country’s Covid-battered growth. Narendra Modi’s government also hopes to implement critical but long-delayed structural reforms that could become possible if economic recovery is as strong as expected. The plan hinges on a stretch goal: exceeding 14 percent nominal GDP ...


New Opportunities 2021: Will France decentralize or recentralize?
In early 2020, France began considering government reforms meant to boost efficiency and reduce centralization. While the pandemic delayed the project, Paris will soon return to the task and attempt to give local governments more freedom. However, the plan could face backlash from the left, and could easily be derailed ...


Opinion: Democracy alive and well in the steppes
In June, Mongolia held parliamentary elections that were widely recognized as free and fair. The country has managed eight such polls in a row, a unique achievement in its region. Nevertheless, it is clear that reforms are still necessary. Recent constitutional amendments should support that effort. For now, it is ...


Armenia’s velvet revolution wears thin
Two years ago, a citizens’ movement led to the ouster of Armenia’s president sparking hopes for sturdier democratic institutions and even a turn toward the West. The new leadership, however, has thrown cold water on those aspirations, taking an ever-more authoritarian path and maintaining the country’s heavy dependence on Moscow.


Ukraine moves to liberalize its farmland market
Ukraine’s potential as a major international player in agricultural production was held back for nearly 20 years by a ban on land sales. The restrictions have been relaxed by parliament, in large part due to pressures from the West. A gradual market liberalization is now planned. The country’s economic future ...


Political culture and constitutional reform in Mongolia
Mongolia appears poised to amend its constitution. A draft reform has already been submitted by two-thirds of the parliament, and President Khaltmaa Battulga has joined the discussion with proposed amendments of his own.


GIS Dossier: Algeria’s ‘system’ teeters
Long before Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika was forced to step down in April 2019, it was clear that the crony oligarchy he fronted for – known to ordinary Algerians as “the system” – could not last. If the wheelchair-bound leader looked moribund after a series of strokes, so did the country's ...


GIS Dossier: Corruption and the global balance of power
Corruption can be a catalyst for political change, as in Latin America, or the basis of a rent-seeking regime, as in Russia. But in rare instances, it can also affect the ebb and flow of global geopolitics. This is clearly evident on the rim of the former Soviet Union, where ...


GIS Dossier: Mission impossible, or reforming France
France used to be one of the European Union’s “twin engines” along with Germany. These days, this once-proud civilization is considered more of a problem than a solution for the European project. Its economy is ailing under excessive government spending and overregulation, its enterprises are stifled by a rigid system ...


South Africa lurches toward uncompensated land seizures
The politically explosive land question has been revived in South Africa at an awkward moment. A motion by the Marxist-Leninist opposition to allow farmland to be expropriated without compensation hit the ruling African National Congress (ANC) as it was beset by corruption scandals, a slumping economy, and widespread voter disillusionment ...


Nigeria’s cautious leader faces hard choices
The first-term record of Muhammadu Buhari, reelected as president of Nigeria earlier this year, was mixed at best. He made modest headway in curbing corruption and the activities of the Boko Haram terror group, but his statist approach to ruling has not been helpful in Africa’s most populous country, where ...


Prospects for stability in the Horn of Africa
For decades, the Horn of Africa has been home to conflict and failed states. Changes are occurring rapidly, however, driven by the recent rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Even Somalia has made modest progress. The question is whether these gains can be consolidated, since economic and ethnic tensions are still ...


Lebanon’s economy: still stuck
Almost exactly a year ago, French President Emmanuel Macron got officials and investors from 50 countries to agree on an $11.1 billion reform and investment program for Lebanon. Fast forward 12 months, and the country remains a shambles. With no signs of progress on any of the key structural problems ...


Opinion: Ukraine gridlocked
The evident stalemate in Ukraine is as much in Western policymakers’ heads as on the Donbas battlefront. Since the European Union has framed the conflict in moral terms that do not allow it to admit failure, it must maintain the pretense of success – giving Russia and Ukraine ample leeway ...


GIS Dossier: Argentina digs itself out of a hole
Nearly 20 years after its historic default, Argentina is still trying to climb back to economic equilibrium. Years of corruption and mismanagement frittered away profits from natural resource exports, while a “gradualist” approach to reform still ended in Latin America’s largest-ever bailout from the IMF. This GIS Dossier reviews our ...


GIS Dossier: Corruption and political transformation
Graft has long been a feature of political systems where rewarding loyalty takes precedence over economic efficiency or the rule of law. But recent events in Latin America show that popular anger at corruption has become a force to be reckoned with – fueled by the power of global markets, ...


A new wave of unrest in North Africa
Street demonstrations have forced Algeria’s president to resign and Sudan’s to declare a year-long state of emergency. In both countries, these popular revolts are challenging entrenched regimes that successfully weathered the Arab Spring protests of 2011. Can this unexpected coda to the revolutions that opened an unhappy decade in the ...


Opinion: An Algerian spring?
Algerians realize they have a historic opportunity to remove the country’s ruling coterie. Yet as the protest movement grows and the momentum for regime change builds, there is reason to worry about what the people are hoping for.


The Gambia’s critical moment
Two years ago, The Gambia managed to oust a dictator through a democratic election. It has opened up politically and economically, but the benefits are dribbling in slowly. Now its president, Adama Barrow, must decide whether to honor an agreement to stay in power for only three years or to ...

Opinion: Property rights and the challenges of transplanting institutions
Since the time of Adam Smith, economists have understood that the wealth or poverty of nations hinge on the quality of their institutions. Political, economic and social rules of the game can be inclusive, offering opportunities for prosperity to all, or extractive, protecting the rents of a few. But the ...


President El-Sisi’s Egypt: Quietly rebuilding economic strength
Following his 2013 coup d’etat that was sternly criticized in Washington and European capitals, Egypt’s former defense minister, Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, was elected the country’s president by an overwhelming margin. After five years in charge of the most populous Arab country, Mr. El-Sisi has accumulated a predictably shoddy record on human ...


2019 Global Outlook: India turns inward
Ahead of parliamentary elections this spring, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reinvented himself. Putting aside earlier economic reforms, his talk is mostly about social welfare. While the Indian leader focuses on wooing small-town voters, his government has put most foreign policy initiatives on hold. Whether Mr. Modi’s ruling BJP wins ...


Angola’s new leader reaches out to the West for help
Angola has recently become one of the most stable countries in sub-Saharan Africa. It now hopes to rebuild its agriculture, education and navy, as well as jump-start investment in the oil sector and broaden its foreign relations base to include Western powers – all before deteriorating living conditions turn the ...


Vocational lessons from Germany and France
Germany is praised as a model of vocational training, with youth unemployment of just over 6 percent. France, where 22 percent of young people don’t have jobs, has long known that its own vocational education system needs fixing. A comparison of how these two great European economies prepare pupils to ...
