Reports

Oil, race and sovereignty in the Greater Caribbean
The geopolitics of the Caribbean region is dominated by natural resources, disputes over sovereignty and the growing salience of national identities. Oil-dependent Venezuela is in steep decline but sustained by allies, while an underdeveloped Guyana is expecting a major energy windfall. In the long term, China will use both carrot ...


What to expect from the U.S. on Venezuela?
With two months to go until the 2020 presidential election, U.S. policy on Venezuela faces new urgency. While the country has been used as a political football for domestic reasons, the crisis in Venezuela has serious consequences for the interests of America and its regional partners. Resolving that crisis is ...


Opinion: Venezuela desperately needs humanitarian assistance
In Venezuela, President Nicolas Maduro is surreptitiously selling off oil assets. The EU is trying to set up negotiations between the government and the opposition. The U.S. is pushing for regime change. All of these attempts to solve the Venezuelan crisis fail to address a crucial factor: the growing suffering ...


GIS Dossier: Socialism
Inequality, social injustice, economic downturns – lately the blame for such phenomena is laid at the feet of capitalism. Increasingly, and especially among the younger generation, socialism is touted as the cure for all these ills. Yet over and over, history has taught us that government meddling in the economy ...


Opinion: Is Cuba entering another ‘Special Period’?
While the regime in Havana has successfully transitioned to a younger team with a new constitution, Cuba’s economic situation looks increasingly dire. Funding and petroleum from its main sponsor, Venezuela, has run dry, and Washington has ratcheted up sanctions. Can the Cuban regime weather the storm again? And if so, ...


Trying to end Venezuela’s never-ending crisis
The humanitarian and economic crisis in Venezuela continues with no end in sight. Negotiations between the increasingly desperate government of Nicolas Maduro and the opposition were interrupted. With international involvement, free and fair elections could occur, but before that happens, the question of what to do with President Maduro and ...


China’s careful new focus on Latin America
Just a few years ago, China was going all-in in Latin America, making huge investments and cozying up to governments that did not get along with Washington. Yet instability in Venezuela and a new government in Ecuador have exposed Beijing to greater risk. While China is still deepening ties with ...


GIS Dossier: Corruption and political transformation
Graft has long been a feature of political systems where rewarding loyalty takes precedence over economic efficiency or the rule of law. But recent events in Latin America show that popular anger at corruption has become a force to be reckoned with – fueled by the power of global markets, ...


Opinion: Venezuela’s endless endgame
Bankrupt and in an economic freefall, Venezuela has become the scene of a humanitarian drama. The opposition is finally unified and appears close to being able to push the die-hard Chavista regime out. Much of the outside world, including Latin America, Europe and the United States, is eager to help, ...


Venezuela: How not to run an oil sector
Venezuela sits on the world’s largest oil reserves but it is not even one of the top 10 global oil producers – and output is falling sharply. Socialist, resource-nationalist policies implemented by former President Hugo Chavez – and continued by President Nicolas Maduro today – are behind the country’s poor ...


Opinion: Pieces still not in place for Maduro’s fall
Venezuela’s crisis will only end when there is a clear exit path for President Nicolas Maduro and his cohorts, and a unified, viable opposition that could take power. So far, neither of those have materialized, meaning Venezuela’s crisis will likely not end anytime soon. When it does, it will be ...


China’s profile is rising in Latin America
As China’s growing economy made it an increasingly important player in Latin America, Beijing kept a low profile. Now, it can no longer avoid the spotlight. In Chile, Venezuela, Ecuador, Brazil and Cuba, its position as a customer, financier and investor is leading to some complicated challenges. The question now ...


Corruption in Latin America
The Odebrecht scandal, which started off as the Petrobras scandal in Brazil, has sent ripple effects throughout Latin America. It has brought down some regimes and even landed powerful leaders in jail. Perhaps the most important result is voters’ distrust of the traditional political forces. Unsurprisingly, parties in power are ...


Opinion: Venezuela nears the breaking point
What will happen to Venezuela after the government tries to steal an unconstitutional presidential election on May 20? Everything depends on the cohesion of the splintered opposition and the determination of the international community. If either fail, the Western hemisphere could be faced with its most severe humanitarian crisis in ...


GIS Dossier: Autumn of the patriarchs
In many parts of the world, the outlook for political stability in 2018 will depend on aging, often long-serving politicians. Some are senescent leaders trying to manage a generational transition, others have caught their second wind and are bracing for a long run. Here is a short list of rulers ...


Venezuela’s bond default
Venezuela failed to pay last month $1.1 billion in interest due on three different government bonds. China’s state-controlled banks are the largest holders of Venezuelan government debt, sitting on more than $60 billion of the $143 billion total. Aside from creating a tense situation in the world of international finance, ...


Opinion: How not to resolve the Venezuelan crisis
Venezuela’s constitutional coup has cleared the way from President Nicolas Maduro to suppress the opposition. But with the economy in tatters, the death toll in street protests rising, and the officer corps on the verge of splintering, the government may be more open to international mediation than first appears. The ...


Venezuela: a violent stalemate
The government of President Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela is under pressure from all sides: growing discontent at home, increasing calls for change from the international community and shrinking revenue. Still, it refuses to budge, and is meeting resistance with violence. The killing of a musician could be a turning point ...


GIS Dossier: Venezuela lives on the edge
The world's richest country in oil reserves is on the verge of becoming a failed state. After more than a half-century of social harmony funded by oil revenue, a socialist variant of caudillismo has run the country into the ground. Yet political changes are blocked by a determined military junta, ...


Endgame in Venezuela
A financial noose is tightening around Venezuela's ruling party. Sovereign default is now imminent and U.S. court judgments have exposed the country's international assets to seizure. Without international mediation, President Nicolas Maduro will have to turn to the military for a potentially bloody crackdown.


Global Outlook 2017: Latin America’s Trump problem
Geography will have a big impact on Latin America in the coming year: the closer a country is to the United States, the worse off it will be. What President Donald Trump does will shape developments in the region, as will the prices of key commodities. If Mr. Trump decides ...


Global Outlook 2017: Venezuela
Venezuela is back from the brink. Over the past six months, Nicolas Maduro has outsmarted the opposition, used a bond swap to stave off default, and coopted the top military brass to prevent a coup. If the president can only find a way to revive oil output, he may be ...


Venezuela can’t defy gravity
Venezuela's economy has crashed and burned, and along with it a certain commodity-fueled model of development. Socialists everywhere would do well to take notice.


Drug money keeps Venezuelan military in Maduro’s corner
Venezuela is in dire straits, with its economy contracting, its oil income falling and supplies of food and medicine dwindling. Against this backdrop, President Nicolas Maduro is resisting a recall referendum and installing generals in the top posts around him. Because he allows the military to profit from drug trafficking, ...
