Reports

Britain’s EU negotiations – perfidious Albion?
The British government’s posturing in talks with the EU is testing goodwill in European capitals. Apart from risking a no-deal outcome on January 1, 2020, it casts a shadow over Britain’s prospects for close security and defense cooperation with Germany and France after Brexit is completed.


Opinion: Russia and Ukraine, or who will outwait whom?
The leader of Ukraine had high hopes for the December 9, 2019, Normandy Four talks in Paris. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy promised Ukrainians the start of a vigorous peace process with Russia. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin is in no hurry to end the Donbas conflict. The United States has lost ...


U.S. and North Korea: Restart of talks, but to what end?
The Trump administration had demonstrated a willingness to return to the negotiating table with North Korea. Pyongyang, however, continues to test the American commitment to a deal that would require complete denuclearization. In October, a technical negotiation between the two sides ended without progress. The North Korean strategy may be ...


An American comeback in the Balkans
After 20 years of absence, the U.S. has realized that the EU alone cannot broker peace in the Western Balkans, and that this power vacuum could open the door to non-EU influence. Washington is currently taking several measures to ensure that key agreements are concluded before the next U.S. presidential ...


Brexit and trade
Brexit negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom were supposed to be concluded at the EU summit on October 17. But the deadline passed with no breakthrough, and no plans for a new meeting. With the clock to a “hard Brexit” ticking down, this could be the salutary ...


Theresa May’s guardedly optimistic Brexit scenario
Under London’s current proposal, the United Kingdom could quit the European Union at midnight on March 30, 2019 largely unscathed, leaving behind a smaller, but cooperatively disposed community on the continent and the outstanding, complex divorce issues for settling later on. But then, there is the “cliff edge” scenario with ...


GIS Dossier: Syria
Syria’s civil war has been decided in the military sense: the rebels have lost. What is up for grabs is the peace settlement. Here the Western powers may end up having surprisingly little say, unless Donald Trump decides otherwise.


Global trends: Ukraine fatigue may force bargain with Russia
Since Ukraine gained independence in 1991, its relations with Russia have never been normal. Major crises are always liable to break out. The present one has lasted for almost two years and is entering a new phase that can make or break Ukraine. <i>This report is part of GIS’s “Global ...


Special Report on Colombia: a country on the mend
Over the past few years, Colombia has been one of Latin America’s economic success stories. Now, as the civil war that ravaged it for 50 years finally approaches a negotiated end, the country is looking forward to collecting a vast peace dividend. Projections for 2015 and 2016 place Colombia among ...


Special report on trade talks between Mercosur and the European Union
The July summit of South America’s six-nation Mercosur group brought no progress in negotiations on a trade agreement with the European Union. While stagnant economies on both sides of the Atlantic could benefit from a pact, Brazil and Argentina, which have pursued highly protectionist regimes, must first reconcile their differences. ...


Searching for a face-saving compromise on Greek debt
The clock is ticking and Greece is getting desperate for a new flow of cash to meet current spending and pay off some its national debts by the February 28 deadline. But it continues to play tough in negotiations with the EU, refusing to accept further austerity measures after an ...


Geopolitics: Durban climate change promises fail to deliver
Delegates to COP17, the United Nations climate change conference in Durban, South Africa, extended their annual gathering to try to hammer out an agreement. But what credibility does it have as the developed countries face economic crisis and the developing nations have pressure to grow. Our expert considers the Durban ...
