Reports

New Opportunities 2021: Will France decentralize or recentralize?
In early 2020, France began considering government reforms meant to boost efficiency and reduce centralization. While the pandemic delayed the project, Paris will soon return to the task and attempt to give local governments more freedom. However, the plan could face backlash from the left, and could easily be derailed ...


New Opportunities 2021: Will the EU deliver or disappoint?
The European Union took bold initiatives in 2020 to fight the Covid-19 pandemic and lay the foundations for economic recovery. This year the EU’s crisis management capacities will be tested by the need to deliver on these commitments amid acrimony over delays in delivering vaccines, political uncertainty in key member ...


EU-China investment treaty: Small win, big losses
An investment deal between China and the European Union was hurriedly concluded as 2020 was drawing to a close. At a glance, Europe seems to have achieved many of its objectives, like better access to Chinese markets and promises of improving human rights conditions. However, the agreement is not without ...


The EU and Turkey: Between confrontation and conciliation
Tension has marked recent relations between the European Union and Turkey, from personal insults between leaders to spats over exploration rights in the Mediterranean Sea. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made conciliatory statements recently, but the question is whether anything can come of them. There are pathways to avoid ...


Opinion: The Muslim Brotherhood’s stealth expansion in Europe
The Muslim Brotherhood has long been establishing European networks to disseminate the teaching of Islam, and governments have been slow to react. However, recent terror attacks could lead to a harder stance from EU leaders. Islamic organizations and their backers are now waiting to see if Europe will present a ...


Europe’s waning influence in the Middle East
Once a key player in the Middle East, Europe has gradually begun to ignore the region – even conflicts that had a direct impact on European states, like the 2015 refugee crisis caused by the war in Syria. The power vacuum left in Europe’s wake is now being filled by ...


Opinion: The EU won’t let a good crisis go to waste
The Covid-19 crisis presented EU leaders with an opportunity to regain popularity by handing out billions of euros in aid. Doling out such huge sums is sure to weaken the market by emphasizing bureaucratic activity over competition and innovation. For now, the EU’s problems have been papered over, but when ...


Post-Covid recovery is not the main challenge ahead
The statistics describing the condition of the world economy three months after the lockdowns seem reassuring: We have not had a V-shaped recovery but GDP growth in the second part of 2020 appears to be firming up and predictions for 2021 are optimistic. However, trouble is brewing in labor markets.


Opinion: Europe’s ‘historic’ deal and the future of the EU
Many have hailed the EU’s July decision to partially mutualize its newly issued debt as a “historic step.” Massive as it is, the stimulus package is unlikely to fix Europe’s fragile and crisis-stricken economies, even if the Union’s show of unity has already firmed it politically. However, the change in ...


France’s bureaucratic challenge
France is the poster child for rule by the bureaucracy. It has become so powerful and entrenched, that even attempts to rein it in have ended up enlarging it and giving it more power. Now, the Covid-19 crisis has revealed some major faults, offering an opportunity for serious readjustment. But ...


Europe needs fortitude in the global power play
Some leaders like to talk up Europe’s so-called values when it suits their purposes. But some EU member states, and often Brussels, apply these “values” inconsistently – unpragmatically extending sanctions on Russia, for example, but refusing to stand up to Iran or China. Europe needs realpolitik and long-term strategy in ...


Sound business is key, not centralist ambitions
French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for more “solidarity” among eurozone states may have a nice ring in today’s harsh pandemic times. It is, however, a disguised attempt to make the enterprising and frugal European states pick up the tab for the irresponsible ones. Instead of a “transfer union,” France and ...


Relevance beyond the crisis: The future of macroeconomic policy
While the scale of the coronavirus emergency requires government intervention, it is worth asking what the consequences of those rescue measures will be in the long term, especially considering the preexisting weaknesses of the economy. Unless the magnitude of the crisis raises awareness of governments’ failings, some European countries’ bloated ...


Opinion: Macron’s European defense initiative can work
France’s nuclear capabilities have rarely played a relevant role in French or European defense. Now, however, President Emmanuel Macron sees them as the basis for a new European security initiative, with his country in the lead role. The proposal is not on most European countries’ agendas. Yet if construed properly, ...


The fires of Libya’s 10-year war
After nearly a decade of conflict and foreign interventions, the Libyan conflict is nowhere near resolved. Weapons and ammunition are still being delivered to both parties by external actors, perpetuating the fighting. With deep divides in both the international community and Libyan society, the situation is unlikely to change in ...


Modern Monetary Theory: The future of money?
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has become a popular philosophy among those who would have the government spend more. Traditional economics holds that MMT would lead to inflation, yet its proponents argue that the orthodoxy no longer applies. Though attractive for many across the political spectrum, it stems from some basic ...


Central Europe and EU cohesion
French President Emmanuel Macron’s early February visit to Poland was an effort to offset post-Brexit centrifugal forces pulling at the European Union. It was unfortunate then, that most of his remarks consisted of lecturing Central European states about the benefits of harmonization. Instead, Mr. Macron and other EU leaders should ...


Leadership Challenges 2020: France and the sociology of bad governance
In France’s ideal republican model, the enlightened elite lead the public toward a unified, egalitarian system. The model is corrupted, however, with the some “more equal” than others, and increasing centralization causing distrust within society. The result is a lack of accountability for those governing, which has led to increasing ...


Opinion: Russia and Ukraine, or who will outwait whom?
The leader of Ukraine had high hopes for the December 9, 2019, Normandy Four talks in Paris. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy promised Ukrainians the start of a vigorous peace process with Russia. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin is in no hurry to end the Donbas conflict. The United States has lost ...


Focus Germany: Future of the French-German tandem
Brexit has raised expectations of renewed attempts at joint Franco-German leadership of the EU. Without Britain’s leveling role, however, the EU’s prospects under the Berlin-Paris tandem could depend on compromises between German ordoliberalism and French economic interventionism. Smaller member states are concerned that their interests would be shunted aside.


An American comeback in the Balkans
After 20 years of absence, the U.S. has realized that the EU alone cannot broker peace in the Western Balkans, and that this power vacuum could open the door to non-EU influence. Washington is currently taking several measures to ensure that key agreements are concluded before the next U.S. presidential ...


GIS Dossier: Libya
Libya has been a test case for the European Union’s ability to intervene effectively in its neighborhood. Yet eight years after the fall of dictator Muammar Qaddafi, the country is still torn by civil war and virtually ungovernable, while refugees and migrants continue to flow north. With the key EU ...


The EU presses pause on Western Balkans enlargement
French President Emmanuel Macron wants to put EU expansion on hold while the bloc reforms itself and the European Commission has downplayed any potential for Western Balkans countries to join the bloc soon. Meanwhile, the region languishes in limbo – the continuous delays make tackling corruption less urgent for their ...
