Reports

New Opportunities 2021: Signs of stability in East Asia
Many expected the security situation in East Asia would be shaped by the special relationship between U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. However, with new leadership in both countries, an adaptation period will likely follow. Japanese expectations for the Biden administration will include security guarantees against ...


Australia’s historic realignment
For most of the 20th century, Japan and Australia had little reason to develop a relationship. However, China’s rise as a regional hegemon has the potential to bring the two countries closer. Ties have been established via the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, in which both countries take part. Closer cooperation could ...


Japan’s innovation struggle
With a growing Chinese presence in Asia, it is crucial for Japan to maintain its position as one of the most technologically advanced countries in the world. To achieve this, the Japanese are likely to tap into their long tradition of rapid modernization. This time, the country will need to ...


Shinzo Abe’s successors to face a nasty test of wills in the East China Sea
The Chinese craft intrusions in the territorial waters and airspace of Japan’s Senkaku Islands put Tokyo in a quandary. It has worked hard to have good relations with Beijing. The question marks over the reliability of Washington’s support for U.S. Asian allies further complicates the Japanese position.


Shifting winds and geopolitical games in the Far East
Challenged by China, Washington is scrambling to defend its global preeminence by shifting U.S. trade policies and diluting commitments to provide security to American allies overseas. As a result, Japan finds itself confronted with limited options and risky policy choices.


Japan and South Korea: Strategic alignments
Japan and South Korea must both balance the United States and China in their geopolitical stance: one guarantees their security, the other holds huge sway over their economies. The two Northeast Asian countries are taking very different approaches to this situation, however. As the great-power competition between the U.S. and ...


Japan opts for another round of fiscal stimulus
Japan is looking for ways to reduce its public debt, currently worth more than 200 percent of its GDP. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has managed to raise the consumption tax, but the government’s budget for this year still relies on social programs to alleviate demographic limitations and convince consumers to ...


Leadership Challenges 2020: Japan’s unique social contract
While Japan has known prosperity and stability under the leadership of longtime Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, it faces demographic challenges that will require difficult decisions. Social cohesion is of the highest importance for the Japanese and many see immigration as a threat, but the rapidly dwindling population will need to ...


Scenarios for the legacy of Shinzo Abe
Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister since the end of World War II, has made a huge imprint on his country’s politics, especially through “Abenomics” and his drive to beef up defense capabilities. His eventual successor will have a host of domestic challenges to overcome, including a growing demographic imbalance ...


Japan accelerates and expands its defense preparations
For seven decades after World War II, Japan was comfortably ensconced in a geopolitical framework that seemed both stable and predictable. With the rise of China and, more recently, new responses from the United States to economic and geopolitical challenges, this framework is evolving. More than ever in the postwar ...


Instability in East Asia: Trade clash between two U.S. allies
By imposing economic sanctions on South Korea, Japan establishes a dangerous precedent. At times when countries neighboring North Korea should be strengthening their ties and establishing transnational security cooperation, the conflict between Tokyo and Seoul could ultimately weaken the region and provoke North Korean adventurism.


Japan’s mercantilism in the spotlight again
With his focus on the trade dispute with China and several other fronts opened, U.S. President Donald Trump has been lenient in his criticism of Japan’s mercantilism. If he wins a second term in office, however, he may change tack and slap tariffs on, for example, Japanese cars – a ...


The enduring value of Japan’s emperor
Though Japan’s emperor holds no political power, he is much more than a figurehead: he is an essential part of Japan’s social contract. The monarchy has provided important stability and unifies the country’s social structure. With Japan facing several serious challenges, its new emperor will play a key role in ...


Between two trade agreements, Asia-Pacific seeks balance
The Asia-Pacific region is seeking a balance of economic and geopolitical benefits with two overlapping trade agreements. Across both sides of the Pacific, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership replaces the defunct TPP agreement after the withdrawal of the United States. Meanwhile, in Asia, the ten ASEAN member ...


China’s superpower pragmatism in Southeast Asia
Though Washington sees China as trying to supplant the U.S. as the global superpower, what Beijing really wants is to carve out a sphere of influence in Eurasia and parts of Africa. Whether it can attain this role of “junior superpower” will depend greatly on the success of the Belt ...


Carlos Ghosn and the rigor of the Japanese state
The surprise arrest of Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn is superficially a tale of personal greed and clashing corporate cultures. But drill deeper and the more significant takeaway is what the case reveals about the Japanese approach to law and the power of the state. That is why Mr. Ghosn’s fate ...


Europe’s China policy challenge
As it tries to manage the effects of the trade war with the United States, China is seeking more allies and partners in the West. Europe could benefit greatly – if it could speak with one voice. China is exploiting divisions in the EU, intensifying its relations with cash-strapped member ...


2019 Global Outlook: China’s regional impact
China will cast a long shadow in East Asia again this year. 2019, however, is shaping up to be less volatile than 2018. In security matters, expect China to use more “carrot” than “stick” as its neighbors try to balance Beijing against Washington. In economic terms, a stimulus program and ...


Japan’s new outreach in Asia
China’s rise as an economic and military colossus has transformed the geopolitics of East Asia. Its most powerful neighbor, Japan, has embarked on a more self-reliant course, even as it continues to lean heavily on its alliance with the United States. Tokyo is expanding its contacts, both economic and strategic, ...


GIS Dossier: Japan’s search for an energy strategy after Fukushima
Since the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident, Japan has sharply decreased its reliance on nuclear energy. Following years of deliberations weighing nuclear’s inherent risks against the expense of energy imports and climate protection obligations, the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has decided that by 2050, about one-fifth of the country’s ...


Japan’s growing concern about energy security
Save for renewables, Japan is devoid of domestic energy sources. Since its nuclear power sector has been reduced to only a minor contributor in the energy mix, the country has had no choice but to increase its imports of hydrocarbons and fall back on its societal and technological strengths to ...


Japan needs woman power
Gender equality is not one of Japan’s greatest strengths, but the rapid shrinking and aging of the population have started to exert pressure on a society whose culture is drawn from the samurai era. These values practically exclude young mothers from the workforce and set a very low glass ceiling ...


The burgeoning India-Japan partnership
Japan and India are fast becoming close partners. Small wonder: the two countries both want to counteract China's rise, especially in the Indian Ocean. The countries have strengthened economic and military ties, and together could challenge China at sea. As Beijing attempts to project its power ever further, the Indo-Japanese ...


Asia-Pacific countries look for signs of hope in Trump trade policy
Over the past two years, protectionism has dominated U.S. trade policy decisions, unsettling American trade partners in the Asia-Pacific region. These countries are unlikely to simply buckle to U.S. demands, instead expanding trade relationships with other states. However, there are signs that the administration could soften its stance and return ...
