Reports

The latest violent chapter in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has rebalanced geopolitical realities in the South Caucasus. Turkey has made significant progress in expanding its role there. Even more disturbingly for the Kremlin, the 2020 war has been associated with a surge in radical political Islam that threatens to spill ...

The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, recently halted by a Russia-backed cease-fire, exposed a new balance of foreign interests in the region. Iran has faced a difficult choice: whether to back a Shia Muslim Azerbaijan that is also receiving support from Israel and Turkey. The prospect of Israeli access to Iran’s northern ...

Nord Stream 2 is perhaps Europe’s most controversial energy project. In October, the U.S. slapped another set of sanctions on contractors and suppliers building the pipeline, while the pandemic-induced drop in economic activity has further called into question the initiative’s financial viability. Berlin and Moscow now have a significant dilemma ...

After three decades of unsuccessful international mediation, conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh has resumed. What has changed in the meantime, however, is Azerbaijan’s relative strength. With oil revenue financing arms purchases, as well as substantial support from Turkey, Baku is determined to settle the matter through military means.

With the recent disturbances in neighboring countries, Moscow is likely to be mapping a long-term course of action to protect its interests and keep rivals as far as possible from its borders. President Putin has taken the West by surprise on several occasions. Unless a more pragmatic approach to Russia ...

Many political pundits have jumped to the conclusion that Russian President Vladimir Putin is behind the August assassination attempt targeting well-known opposition activist Alexei Navalny. However, the confused and disjointed reactions from the Kremlin seem to indicate that the attack was not sponsored by the presidential office, or at least ...

By urging NATO and the European Union to show their support for Belarus, Lithuania is risking Russia’s ire. Military intervention is unlikely but cannot be ruled out, given the Baltic state’s border with the  strategic Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. However, the most likely course of action for the Putin administration ...

Moscow's geopolitical vision of a “Greater Eurasian Partnership” sets Russia at the center of continent-wide political and economic cooperation. Its 2012 pivot to Asia was part of this strategy. To achieve its goal, however, Russia needs to stand on equal footing with Europe. The question is whether its defiance of ...

Twenty-five years ago, peace talks in Dayton, Ohio, ended the Bosnian war. However, the resulting political compromise has not allowed Bosnia and Herzegovina to develop a functioning state. Republika Srpska’s ability to veto Bosnian government policy is creating near-constant gridlock, a situation that has delayed the country’s accession to the ...

Russian intervention in Belarus could take many forms: formal assistance granted at the request of the collapsing Lukashenko regime; a stabilization operation amid chaotic conditions or the armed invasion of a new Belarusian state controlled by the opposition. All those options would entail massive economic and political costs for Moscow, ...

With a new import ban on 101 kinds of weapons, Narendra Modi is continuing his quest to expand India’s domestic arms industry. The lack of arms manufacturing has been a concern since the 1960s, and despite criticisms, the latest efforts are bearing some fruit. But India still has a slow ...

Before the elections, many observers compared the situation in Belarus to the color revolutions in Ukraine or Georgia. But the country did not receive as much support from the West.The most likely scenario is that Russia will keep supporting President Aleksander Lukashenko, provided he assents to stepping down after this ...

Moscow and Beijing may prefer one U.S. presidential candidate over the other, but it is unlikely that either power would be able to influence the outcome of the U.S. electoral process in a significant way.

The toughest nut to crack in the Balkans remains resolving the Kosovo-Serbia conflict. Recently, the U.S. has stepped further into the fray, jockeying with the EU for primacy in leading the negotiations. At the same time, the regime in Belgrade has strengthened, while in Pristina, the third government in a ...

It is now likely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be elected for another six-year term in 2024. In the meantime, he will face significant challenges, including rebuilding healthcare, alleviating poverty and reestablishing voter trust in some segments of the population. Unless oil prices begin to rise, Mr. Putin may ...

The Trump administration has announced it will reduce the number of American troops in Europe. While the move has plenty of justification in terms of U.S. interests and policy, the unilateral manner in which it was made threatens NATO unity. Russia and China could even benefit from the fallout. If ...

 Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is facing unprecedented turmoil at home. Protracted demonstrations have led to a string of politically motivated arrests. However, trouble is also brewing on the foreign front. The Kremlin appears to be losing patience with the strongman’s trick of playing off Russia against the West and could ...

In Russia, the Covid-19 outbreak has undone years of centralization by the Kremlin. Regional governors had to be granted powers that Moscow may not be able to take back once the pandemic ends. The crisis has also exacerbated friction between the church and the government, while dropping oil prices have ...

The Putin administration rushed a wide range of constitutional amendments through parliament during the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. Most analysts have come to the conclusion that the sole purpose of the changes was to allow the Russian president to hold on to power, but several developments contradict this ...

Many expected the coronavirus to spread rapidly throughout the Middle East, but save for Turkey and Iran, most countries in the region had the pandemic under control early on, thanks to aggressive containment measures. However, the drop in oil prices will be felt keenly in the area, potentially leading to ...

Two years ago, a citizens’ movement led to the ouster of Armenia’s president sparking hopes for sturdier democratic institutions and even a turn toward the West. The new leadership, however, has thrown cold water on those aspirations, taking an ever-more authoritarian path and maintaining the country’s heavy dependence on Moscow.

Evaluating the efficiency of the Russian government is a nearly impossible task because it has no declared policy goals. Corruption remains rampant, and the territorial conflict with Ukraine will require decades before relations between the two countries can be normalized. What is unclear is whether the Putin administration was pursuing ...

With French President Emmanuel Macron on a mission to reform the EU before allowing membership for Balkans states, the southeastern European region remains both divided and politically isolated. Russia has been making inroads, especially in Serbia, which sees an opening to spoil some of the progress toward Euroatlanticism that the ...

The leader of Ukraine had high hopes for the December 9, 2019, Normandy Four talks in Paris. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy promised Ukrainians the start of a vigorous peace process with Russia. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin is in no hurry to end the Donbas conflict. The United States has lost ...