Reports

Twenty-five years ago, peace talks in Dayton, Ohio, ended the Bosnian war. However, the resulting political compromise has not allowed Bosnia and Herzegovina to develop a functioning state. Republika Srpska’s ability to veto Bosnian government policy is creating near-constant gridlock, a situation that has delayed the country’s accession to the ...

Russian intervention in Belarus could take many forms: formal assistance granted at the request of the collapsing Lukashenko regime; a stabilization operation amid chaotic conditions or the armed invasion of a new Belarusian state controlled by the opposition. All those options would entail massive economic and political costs for Moscow, ...

With a new import ban on 101 kinds of weapons, Narendra Modi is continuing his quest to expand India’s domestic arms industry. The lack of arms manufacturing has been a concern since the 1960s, and despite criticisms, the latest efforts are bearing some fruit. But India still has a slow ...

Before the elections, many observers compared the situation in Belarus to the color revolutions in Ukraine or Georgia. But the country did not receive as much support from the West.The most likely scenario is that Russia will keep supporting President Aleksander Lukashenko, provided he assents to stepping down after this ...

Moscow and Beijing may prefer one U.S. presidential candidate over the other, but it is unlikely that either power would be able to influence the outcome of the U.S. electoral process in a significant way.

The toughest nut to crack in the Balkans remains resolving the Kosovo-Serbia conflict. Recently, the U.S. has stepped further into the fray, jockeying with the EU for primacy in leading the negotiations. At the same time, the regime in Belgrade has strengthened, while in Pristina, the third government in a ...

It is now likely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be elected for another six-year term in 2024. In the meantime, he will face significant challenges, including rebuilding healthcare, alleviating poverty and reestablishing voter trust in some segments of the population. Unless oil prices begin to rise, Mr. Putin may ...

The Trump administration has announced it will reduce the number of American troops in Europe. While the move has plenty of justification in terms of U.S. interests and policy, the unilateral manner in which it was made threatens NATO unity. Russia and China could even benefit from the fallout. If ...

 Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is facing unprecedented turmoil at home. Protracted demonstrations have led to a string of politically motivated arrests. However, trouble is also brewing on the foreign front. The Kremlin appears to be losing patience with the strongman’s trick of playing off Russia against the West and could ...

In Russia, the Covid-19 outbreak has undone years of centralization by the Kremlin. Regional governors had to be granted powers that Moscow may not be able to take back once the pandemic ends. The crisis has also exacerbated friction between the church and the government, while dropping oil prices have ...

The Putin administration rushed a wide range of constitutional amendments through parliament during the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. Most analysts have come to the conclusion that the sole purpose of the changes was to allow the Russian president to hold on to power, but several developments contradict this ...

Many expected the coronavirus to spread rapidly throughout the Middle East, but save for Turkey and Iran, most countries in the region had the pandemic under control early on, thanks to aggressive containment measures. However, the drop in oil prices will be felt keenly in the area, potentially leading to ...

Two years ago, a citizens’ movement led to the ouster of Armenia’s president sparking hopes for sturdier democratic institutions and even a turn toward the West. The new leadership, however, has thrown cold water on those aspirations, taking an ever-more authoritarian path and maintaining the country’s heavy dependence on Moscow.

Evaluating the efficiency of the Russian government is a nearly impossible task because it has no declared policy goals. Corruption remains rampant, and the territorial conflict with Ukraine will require decades before relations between the two countries can be normalized. What is unclear is whether the Putin administration was pursuing ...

With French President Emmanuel Macron on a mission to reform the EU before allowing membership for Balkans states, the southeastern European region remains both divided and politically isolated. Russia has been making inroads, especially in Serbia, which sees an opening to spoil some of the progress toward Euroatlanticism that the ...

The leader of Ukraine had high hopes for the December 9, 2019, Normandy Four talks in Paris. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy promised Ukrainians the start of a vigorous peace process with Russia. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin is in no hurry to end the Donbas conflict. The United States has lost ...

The Eastern Partnership has lacked a strategy since its creation in 2009. Designed to promote European values in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, the project has done little to reduce poverty and corruption in participating countries. Furthermore, the latter have often found themselves struggling to balance allegiances to ...

For years, the only role “the people” have played in Russian politics is one in which they legitimize the regime in power. Though admittedly important, that role did not involve shaping the political agenda. Now, that seems to be changing – all because of a mismanaged election for Moscow’s city ...

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline was supposed to cement Russian dominance over Europe’s gas markets while bypassing Ukraine. But as it nears completion, Gazprom’s bargaining power versus the EU appears diminished. The Kremlin’s strong-arm tactics have simply proved no match for market forces.

With its vast expanses, its undeveloped areas and its need to connect east and west, one might think Russia would have ample incentive to develop a world-class rail system. But that has not happened, even after it agreed to work with China on an ambitious Moscow-to-Beijing rail project. Bureaucracy, corruption ...

Libya has been a test case for the European Union’s ability to intervene effectively in its neighborhood. Yet eight years after the fall of dictator Muammar Qaddafi, the country is still torn by civil war and virtually ungovernable, while refugees and migrants continue to flow north. With the key EU ...

Predictions of systemic transformation in Russia have invariably proved wrong. Sooner or later, however, fundamental changes in the current political regime must occur. Recent events suggest that they may start with a crucial yet often unappreciated element of the power structure.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s party took the largest share of votes in the country’s parliamentary elections, paving the way for him to initiate a new dialogue with Russia. For the West, it presents an opportunity to ratchet down tensions with Moscow and even normalize relations. The alternative – battered economies, ...

Any sensible person can see that status quo in Crimea is unacceptable, while restoration of the status quo ante is impossible. That means the scope of possibilities is very narrow. When looking for the least bad solution for the conflict between Russia, Ukraine and the West, perhaps two wrongs can ...