GIS Dossier: Autumn of the patriarchs
In many parts of the world, the outlook for political stability in 2018 will depend on aging, often long-serving politicians. Some are senescent leaders trying to manage a generational transition, others have caught their second wind and are bracing for a long run. Here is a short list of rulers who are losing their grip, handling tricky successions, or building their legacies with a late burst of vigor. They are a key human element in geopolitics.
Mugabe is out, but his power structure remains
Robert Mugabe lost Zimbabwe’s presidency to his former right-hand man Emmerson Mnangagwa in a coup prepared jointly by the military and one of the ruling party’s factions. The new ruling team is more focused on defending its power and privileges in the impoverished country than on addressing its profound problems.
Zimbabwe’s pivotal moment
Zimbabwe’s deepening economic crisis have led to protests of unprecedented intensity against the regime of President Robert Mugabe. However, the opposition is divided, and Mr. Mugabe still has plenty of tricks up his sleeve. If the coalition of opposition parties can remain unified, it has a chance of unseating the president in next year’s elections. But no matter the outcome, unrest is likely to continue.
GIS Dossier: Sub-Saharan Africa
The list of challenges facing sub-Saharan Africa is long and daunting. Political instability and violence have led to immense migration flows that countries on three continents are struggling to contain. These problems have exacerbated weather-related catastrophes like famine, creating a vicious circle. Yet, the region has plenty of potential. Can it overcome its hurdles? This edition of GIS Dossier surveys the predictions from our experts on this troubled region.
Global Outlook 2017: Sub-Saharan Africa
Political instability will be the norm for sub-Saharan Africa in 2017. Crises will range from rocky political transitions to mass protests, electoral violence and – in the worst case – even genocide. The region faces these challenges at a time when realpolitik is replacing liberalism.
Troubled Zimbabwe starts to think about life after Mugabe
Robert Mugabe still presides over the chaotic country of Zimbabwe at the age of 90. Amid regular reports that his health is failing, political succession has become a major issue. The major opposition party, the MDC, was heavily defeated in the 2013 elections by Mr Mugabe’s Zanu-PF, in which two factions have emerged. They are led by vice president Joice Mujuru an...
The politics which fuels Zimbabwe’s economic vulnerability
The main obstacles to sustained economic growth in Zimbabwe are largely judged to be non-economic. The politics of President Robert Mugabe and his Zanu-PF party have dominated life in Zimbabwe for the past 30 years and are widely said to have contributed to its economic vulnerability. They are still likely to do so in the short term. But the forthcoming elections s...
An uncertain road ahead for Zimbabwe in election year
Robert Mugabe, 89, is expected to be re-elected president after 33 years in power in elections due before the end of July 2013. But the focus this time will be as much on the choice of his main running mate for vice president as on him. If a president fails to complete his full term for any reason, the vice president automatically assumes the reins of power. In th...
ANC leadership election is crucial for South Africa
President Jacob Zuma faces a tough test to hold on to the leadership of the African National Congress. He has been criticised for failing to deliver on his promises, mishandling the aftermath of the police shootings at the South African mining protests and smeared by allegations of corruption. But questions remain over whether South Africa’s Deputy President Kgale...