Pitfalls and dilemmas of arming Ukraine
Washington’s decision to sell modern U.S. anti-tank missiles to Kiev means that a red line in the West’s involvement in the Ukrainian crisis has been crossed. Whether the delivery of this expensive weapon system to the embattled nation serves U.S. national security interests or brings Kiev closer to reclaiming the territories it had lost to Moscow-backed insurgents is highly debatable.
Russia’s and China’s quiet contest in Central Asia
While Russia focuses on its geopolitical objectives in Central Asia, China’s primarily interest is in the region’s mineral and energy resources. As recipients of Chinese investments and development aid, the five Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – are seeking to leverage the two powers’ competition for their own benefit.
VIDEO: 2018 Global Outlook: North Korea and the U.S.-China-Russia triangle | GIS: Global Trends Video Reports
While the risk of a U.S.-North Korean conflict is still considered low, brinkmanship is already causing considerable collateral damage to the triangular relationship between the three great powers – the U.S., China and Russia – that was a defining feature of the Cold War.
Turkey has the right to protect its national interests
Turkey is a regional power, a direct neighbor of Middle Eastern states and their historic trading and political partner. The West continues to ignore its national interests only at the risk of its own security.
Wars no longer between states
Warfare has entered a stage where the parties engaged are no longer easily recognizable as states. Some security experts have even gone so far as to say that the era of war between states has come to an end and that this is a good thing. The latter is a very dubious claim.
Opinion: Do not underestimate Russia’s fear
Russia is at a dead end. Paralyzed by fear that the process of its disintegration that began with the collapse of the Soviet Union has not run its course yet, Russia’s ruling elite is uncertain of the country’s future and its own legitimacy. Hence the besieged fortress mentality, aggressive posture abroad and oppressive policies at home. Perceiving reforms as risky, the Russian civilization concentrates its waning energy on trying to maintain the status quo.
Siberia, a European issue
Tensions between East and West are mounting, but Europe could gain strategically and economically from assisting in the development of Siberia. Helping Russia shore up its eastern border with China this way would be also in the long-term interest of NATO and the United States.