Salomon Lerner | Geopolitical Intelligence Services

As sanctions take their toll, Russia turns to import substitution

Nizhny Tagil, Nov. 25, 2015: Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) during a meeting on the import substitution policy that the government hopes will help Russia weather economic and financial sanctions that have followed the annexation of Crimea (source: dpa)

25.03.2016

As the Russian economy’s difficulties deepen, the Kremlin is putting a brave face on things. It maintains that Western sanctions have been beneficial and that its own anti-crisis program is working. Moreover, the government is talking up a new “Strategy 2030” to boost domestic self-sufficiency based on import substitution. The new measures, however, are unlikely to...

Professor Stefan Hedlund

DEFENSE

China steps up engagement in the Middle East

China’s greater engagement in the Middle East comes as it looks to secure its military, energy, economic and infrastructure interests in the region (source: macpixxel for GIS)

18.03.2016

Beijing’s increasing involvement in the Middle East has important economic, diplomatic, and military implications for the region, China and the world. The stakes were highlighted when the Chinese government chose to build its first overseas military base in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa. President Xi Jinping’s recent visits to Iran and Saudi Arabia drove the poin...

Brendan O’Reilly

ECONOMY

Turkey-Russia conflict has implications for the South Caucasus

Baku, Feb. 18, 2016: Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu (R) and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov (L); Turkey has strong ties in the Caucasus and Central Asia (source: dpa)

22.02.2016

When Turkey shot down a Russian warplane in November, the ensuing conflict between the two countries had ripple effects in the South Caucasus and beyond. Turkey made a strong statement of its readiness to defend its interests in a turbulent neighborhood, reinforcing its status as a regional power to be reckoned with. Reactions to the incident on both sides plainly ...

Eka Tkeshelashvili

POLITICS

Global trends: Ukraine fatigue may force bargain with Russia

Kiev, Jan. 23, 2016: Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko could face a tough choice between political survival and fulfilling the Minsk II agreement (source: dpa)

28.01.2016

Since Ukraine gained independence in 1991, its relations with Russia have never been normal. Major crises are always liable to break out. The present one has lasted for almost two years and is entering a new phase that can make or break Ukraine. <i>This report is part of GIS’s “Global Trends” series, which aims to f...

Dr. Uwe Nerlich

DEFENSE

Global trends: 2016 and 2017 will set Putin’s future

Moscow, Dec. 17, 2015: Screens show Russian President Vladimir Putin during his annual news conference; much of the focus was on Russia’s involvement in Syria and Ukraine (source: dpa)

27.01.2016

The outlook for Russia this year is more complex and harder to predict than at any point since President Vladimir Putin took power 16 years ago. Mr. Putin has ruthlessly ratcheted up the stakes in his drive to ensure that Russia is once again recognized as a great power with a voice in global affairs that cannot be ignored. The coming 12 to 18 months will be decisi...

Professor Stefan Hedlund

DEFENSE

Ethnic strife continues to stymie Myanmar’s economic potential

Mandalay, Nov. 13, 2015: A woman sells T-shirts of Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the National League for Democracy party (source: dpa)

25.01.2016

Myanmar, also known as Burma, has seen decades of ethnic conflict and corrupt military rule stifle its considerable economic prospects. With an advantageous geographic location, abundant natural resources and ample labor force, Myanmar has the ingredients needed to become a regional economic power. A win by pro-democracy groups in last November’s elections offers a...

Brendan O’Reilly

ECONOMY

New opportunity to get Turkey right emerges

Ankara, June 23, 2015: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (front) leaves the nation’s parliament building after deputies who won their seats in inconclusive elections were sworn in (source: dpa)

01.12.2015

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is back in the driver’s seat after his ruling party scored a decisive win in the November snap elections. While Mr Erdogan has never been a favourite of Western decision makers and opinion shapers, his renewed mandate makes him a useful partner in efforts to resolve the Syrian civil war and the migrant crisis that threatens to...

Eka Tkeshelashvili

POLITICS

Russia’s autumn of diplomatic success in Ukraine, Iran and Syria

Sept. 28, 2015: US President Barack Obama (L), and Russian President Vladimir Putin (R), at a breakfast meeting during the 70th UN General Assembly session in New York City (source: dpa)

13.11.2015

More than the United States, China and certainly Europe, Russia pins its ambitions on diplomacy. The government needs diplomatic successes to bolster its position at home as much as its standing abroad. Over the past 25 years, foreign policy has served Russia’s bid to become again a great European power – commensurate with its size, resources and tradition – and ev...

Dr. Uwe Nerlich

DEFENSE

Turkey grapples to support Crimean Tatars without risking Russian business ties

Presidents Putin (second left) Russia, Erdogan (right) Turkish Republic, exchange views at opening ceremony, European Games in Baku 2015 (photo: dpa)

02.09.2015

The partnership of old rivals, Russia and Turkey, has never been put to a greater test in the Black Sea region than it has since Russia's annexation of Crimea in March 2014. In Turkey, it revived memories of Russia's expansionism, as well as highlighting Ankara's limited capacity to react forcefully. Turkey condemned the...

Eka Tkeshelashvili

POLITICS

Bleak chance of gold rebounding

Fed Chairwoman Yellen has no crystal ball, yet investors have faith in her abilty to deal with whatever occurs in the coming months (source: dpa)

17.08.2015

At the end of July, gold dropped below US$1,100 per ounce and many experts predict that the fall will not stop until US$800 or US$600 is reached. Yet, at first blush, the economic environment would seem ideal for a bull market: low inflation, low interest rates and overpriced stock markets have always been the perfect mix to support gold. ...

Professor Enrico Colombatto

ECONOMY