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As the Russian economy’s difficulties deepen, the Kremlin is putting a brave face on things. It maintains that Western sanctions have been beneficial and that its own anti-crisis program is working. Moreover, the government is talking up a new “Strategy 2030” to boost domestic self-sufficiency based on import substitution. The new measures, however, are unlikely to...
Professor Stefan Hedlund
DEFENSE
Beijing’s increasing involvement in the Middle East has important economic, diplomatic, and military implications for the region, China and the world. The stakes were highlighted when the Chinese government chose to build its first overseas military base in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa. President Xi Jinping’s recent visits to Iran and Saudi Arabia drove the poin...
Brendan O’Reilly
ECONOMY
When Turkey shot down a Russian warplane in November, the ensuing conflict between the two countries had ripple effects in the South Caucasus and beyond. Turkey made a strong statement of its readiness to defend its interests in a turbulent neighborhood, reinforcing its status as a regional power to be reckoned with. Reactions to the incident on both sides plainly ...
Eka Tkeshelashvili
POLITICS
Since Ukraine gained independence in 1991, its relations with Russia have never been normal. Major crises are always liable to break out. The present one has lasted for almost two years and is entering a new phase that can make or break Ukraine. <i>This report is part of GIS’s “Global Trends” series, which aims to f...
Dr. Uwe Nerlich
The outlook for Russia this year is more complex and harder to predict than at any point since President Vladimir Putin took power 16 years ago. Mr. Putin has ruthlessly ratcheted up the stakes in his drive to ensure that Russia is once again recognized as a great power with a voice in global affairs that cannot be ignored. The coming 12 to 18 months will be decisi...
Myanmar, also known as Burma, has seen decades of ethnic conflict and corrupt military rule stifle its considerable economic prospects. With an advantageous geographic location, abundant natural resources and ample labor force, Myanmar has the ingredients needed to become a regional economic power. A win by pro-democracy groups in last November’s elections offers a...
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is back in the driver’s seat after his ruling party scored a decisive win in the November snap elections. While Mr Erdogan has never been a favourite of Western decision makers and opinion shapers, his renewed mandate makes him a useful partner in efforts to resolve the Syrian civil war and the migrant crisis that threatens to...
More than the United States, China and certainly Europe, Russia pins its ambitions on diplomacy. The government needs diplomatic successes to bolster its position at home as much as its standing abroad. Over the past 25 years, foreign policy has served Russia’s bid to become again a great European power – commensurate with its size, resources and tradition – and ev...
The partnership of old rivals, Russia and Turkey, has never been put to a greater test in the Black Sea region than it has since Russia's annexation of Crimea in March 2014. In Turkey, it revived memories of Russia's expansionism, as well as highlighting Ankara's limited capacity to react forcefully. Turkey condemned the...
At the end of July, gold dropped below US$1,100 per ounce and many experts predict that the fall will not stop until US$800 or US$600 is reached. Yet, at first blush, the economic environment would seem ideal for a bull market: low inflation, low interest rates and overpriced stock markets have always been the perfect mix to support gold. ...
Professor Enrico Colombatto