Scenarios for Central and Eastern Europe in a Russia-NATO conflict

A map of the area where a NATO-Russia war could break out
To neutralize Russia’s designs against the Baltic states NATO needs to establish firmer control over the region (source: macpixxel for GIS)
  • As before in the region’s history, its future will depend on the interplay of interests of outside powers
  • Only the U.S. can effectively counter Russia’s policy of undermining the region’s security
  • The Kremlin’s behavior shapes the security policies of the remaining actors in Europe
  • Internally, both the European Union and Russia are under growing duress

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is becoming the main stage of a new, hybrid cold war between Russia and the West. What role will the region play in this conflict: a hard stopper that effectively blocks threats from Russia, or an open playing field that invites brinkmanship and increasingly dangerous skirmishes?

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