Scenarios for North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in hold hands in the air triumphantly during an April 27, 2018 meeting
The April summit between North Korea’s Kim Jong-un (L) and South Korean President Moon Jae-in was the first between the leaders of the two nations since 2007 (source: dpa)
  • North Korea may be trying to reintegrate with the global community
  • But Kim Jong-un could only be seeking a tactical advantage
  • In the worst case, Mr. Kim is getting ready for an exit from power

As developments on the Korean Peninsula unfold, pundits and the press are struggling to assess the situation. While some rejoice in the newfound goodwill between North and South, others recall that both countries have been here before. It might help to take the same view that Chinese Prime Minister Zhou Enlai (1949-1976) took when considering the events of 1968 in France: “It is too early to tell” what the outcome will be.

But while it may be too early to determine exactly why events are happening as they are and where they will lead, we can analyze the main causes.

Not a subscriber yet?

Subscribe now and get the latest in-depth geopolitical analysis and forecasts from GIS’s unrivaled cadre of experts.

Learn more about our subscription plans.

You can also buy this report for €8.99 Buy

Add your comment